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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL Preliminary Final Tips - Three-Peat Dream at the MCG
The upcoming AFL 2026 Preliminary Final sees the Brisbane Lions favored to take down the Hawthorn Hawks and book a fourth consecutive Grand Final spot, with a predicted margin of 1-39 points. Brisbane's recent dominance over Hawthorn, combined with strong individual form and efficient play reducing turnovers, underpins this forecast. Cam Rayner is tipped for 2+ goals, while James Sicily is expected to finish with under 19.5 disposals. The match promises a high total over 185.5 points, making Brisbane the recommended bet.
- Brisbane tipped to win by 1-39 points over Hawthorn at MCG
- Cam Rayner expected to kick 2+ goals; Sicily under 19.5 disposals
- Total points predicted to go over 185.5 in a high-scoring clash
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions kicks off Saturday 19 September at 5:15pm AEST at the MCG.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions, AFL Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction (Updated)
Brisbane will book themselves a 4th straight Grand Final appearance on Saturday with a 1-39 pt margin the main prediction for the game.
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions, AFL Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction (Updated)
- Head to Head Stats
- Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Finals FAQ's
Brisbane arrive at the MCG after bouncing back from their shock qualifying final loss to the Swans, a trend they have completed multiple times after 40+ pt losses this season. The win against Adelaide was underpinned by a seven-minute, five-goal blitz from the opening bounce. Hawthorn by contrast, have lost just once in eight matches and are in terrifying form, but that one loss was a 67-point beating at the hands of this very opponent back in Round 22.
The Lions have won three straight against Hawthorn, including the rout in August and a 33-point win the last time these two met at the MCG in May 2025. It's also notable that 8 of the last 12 finals wins by Brisbane and all 6 of Hawthorns finals since the 2019 season, have been decided by a margin of 1 and 39 points.
What will get Brisbane across the line here is their individual weapons and their ability to create uncontested possessions, allowing the team to attack forward with full pace. Being the 2nd best team at reducing turnovers over their last 5 games greatly reduces the opportunity for Hawthorn to score from turnovers, a stat they rank 4th in the league in over this season.
Take Brisbane to win by 1-39 points, the game total to go over 185.5, Cam Rayner to kick 2+ goals, and James Sicily to go under 19.5 disposals at the MCG on Saturday.
- Brisbane's finals wins since 2019 have carried an average margin of 27 points, with 8 of 12 landing in the 1-39 band.
- All six of Hawthorn's finals across the same period have also finished within that range.
- Cam Rayner is the quintessential big-game player, having kicked 2 goals with 22 disposals and 11 score involvements in last week's semi-final romp over Adelaide.
- Brisbane rank second in the league over their last five games at turnovers, this limits the intercept-marking opportunities that have inflated Sicily's disposal count of late.
- Both attacks are genuinely potent - Brisbane carry a +21.2 attack rating to Hawthorn's +6.8, and the Hawks have already leaked 125 points to this exact opponent once this year.
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn holds the all-time edge, 35 wins to 23, and a narrow 6-3 advantage at the MCG, but the last 10 meetings are dead even at 5-5 and Brisbane won the latest game at the MCG in 2025.
Recent form heavily favours the Lions having won three straight matchups, the Round 22 game this year finished 125 to 58 and is the most lopsided result of the past 10 games.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn punched its ticket to a home preliminary final by ambushing minor premiers Fremantle, winning 72 to 40 at Optus Stadium (match report) in a defensive masterclass that restricted the Dockers to just five goals from 57 inside-50s.
James Sicily was outstanding with 26 disposals and a game-high 12 intercept possessions, shutting down Patrick Voss in the process. Nick Watson was incredible at ground level and turned the momentum of the game more than once. Hawthorn boast the superior defence on the season but still allowed 125 pts to Brisbane back in Rd 22.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane bounced back from a 53-point qualifying-final upset at the hands of Sydney 141 to 88, to demolish Adelaide by 53 pts 144 to 91 in the semi-final last weekend (match report). The Lions raced out to a quick lead with five goals in the opening seven minutes of the game.
Cam Rayner rediscovered his best with 22 disposals, 11 score involvements and 2 goals after a quiet qualifying final. Brisbane's attack holds a +21.2 rating and over the last 5 games are the 2nd best team at committing turnovers.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News
Hawthorn Hawks Team News: Mitch Lewis (shoulder) has proved his fitness in training and should be available, ruck Ned Reeves is also fit to play, but the Hawks appear unlikely to make changes to the side that toppled Fremantle.
Brisbane Lions Team News: Noah Answerth is in a race against time to overcome an ankle injury, and getting him up would let him shut down Hawthorn's dangerous small forwards again. Ty Gallop looms as the most likely to make way if changes are needed, and Logan Morris is expected to be available after managing a sore calf late in the semi-final.
| Hawthorn | POS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| J. Sicily, T. Barrass, B. Hardwick | B | T. Gallop, H. Andrews, R. Lester |
| B. Macdonald, J. Weddle, J. Battle | HB | D. Wilmot, D. Gardiner, D. Zorko |
| J. Impey, W. Day, M. D’Ambrosio | C | J. Berry, W. Ashcroft, Z. Bailey |
| D. Moore, M. Chol, C. Macdonald | HF | C. Cameron, L. Morris, O. Allen |
| N. Watson, M. Lewis, J. Gunston | F | E. Hipwood, C. Rayner, K. Lohmann |
| L. Meek, J. Newcombe, J. Ward | FOLL | D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale |
| K. Amon, H. Morrison, C. Mackenzie, M. Beattie, J. Ginnivan | I/C | S. Draper, J. Fletcher, H. McCluggage, L. Ashcroft, C. McKenna |
Hawthorn Emergencies: N. Reeves, N. Mraz, J. Dalton
Brisbane Lions Emergencies: L. McCarthy, C. Curtin, B. Reville
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Finals FAQ's
- How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Preliminary Final?
You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Preliminary Final via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Preliminary Final?
To buy tickets to the Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2026 Preliminary Final check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn Football Club site.
Verdict
Take Brisbane to win by 1-39 points, the game total to go over 185.5, Cam Rayner to kick 2+ goals, and James Sicily to go under 19.5 disposals at the MCG on Saturday.
Brisbane 1-39
Win Margin
$2.35 - 2 Units
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J Sicily under 19.5
Disposals
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