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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 9 Tips - Hawks to Break Optus Hoodoo

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 06 May 2026 12:40

Ryan Tucker 06 May 2026

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The game will be played at Optus Stadium on Thursday 7th May, with the bounce at 8:10pm AEST
Heavyweight battle between 2nd and 3rd on the AFL ladder
Nick Watson key for Hawthorn, Hayden Young key for Dockers

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 9 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn are the story of the season and they have earned that right. But they travel to Optus Stadium to face the competition's form team and the model says this one is a coin flip. The value is firmly with the Hawks.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 9 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9 FAQ’s

Fremantle have won seven straight and their defence has been the bedrock of every one of those wins, conceding just 71.2 pts on average while generating 94.8 on attack. They are a well-oiled machine at home and the short price reflects it. But the model has Hawthorn by 2.2 pts against a market line of -3.5 in Fremantle's favour. That's a 5.7 pt swing and a clear value bet on the Hawks.

The key to this game runs through the midfield and that is where Hawthorn are genuinely dangerous. They generate 399 Disposals per game to Fremantle's 369 and their Shots at Goal advantage of +8.4 against the Dockers' defence is significant. The Hawks averaged 98.0 pts over their last five outings compared to Fremantle's 87.4, and they pushed Collingwood all the way at the MCG in the draw last week while controlling the contest for long periods. Jai Newcombe, Connor Macdonald and Josh Ward give them the midfield currency to go toe-to-toe with anyone.

Fremantle's attack has hummed this season but they have been doing it in shorter bursts. They've been held under 90 pts in three of their last five wins and rely heavily on the defensive end to keep margins manageable. Hawthorn's defence concedes just 85.5 pts per game, the third lowest in the competition. A low-scoring, contested arm wrestle suits the Hawks and kills the Dockers. The Game Total line of 184.5 is steep given both sides are built on defensive pressure and the Under is an enormous lean from the model at 74.3%.

Take Hawthorn to win or cover the +3.5 line and the Game Total to go Under 184.5. Sam Switkowski anytime goalscorer and Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals are the top player props.

The model has Hawthorn by 2.2 pts against a market line of -3.5 to Fremantle, a 5.7 pt edge and a flagged value bet.
The Hawks average more disposals than Fremantle while also outscoring the Dockers on a per game basis.
The model Under probability sits at 74.3% against a line of 184.5, with both teams' defences conceding well below that implied total.
Hawthorn have won once in the last eight meetings vs Freo but controlled large portions of play in the draw with Collingwood last week, showing they can match the competition's best midfield brigades.

Head to Head Stats

Fremantle hold a 7-3 record over Hawthorn in the last 10 meetings and a 5-1 advantage at Optus Stadium. The most recent clash was a Fremantle win 77-64 in Round 18 2025, with prior results of 74-87, 93-56 and 117-48. Fremantle have averaged a +26.5 pt margin across the last four games in this matchup. The ATS record and historical dominance at home make this a legitimate line value play on the visitor.

Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis

Fremantle scraped past a depleted Western Bulldogs outfit by 12 pts at Marvel Stadium in what was their grittiest win of the season. The Bulldogs kicked six opening-quarter goals and led comfortably before the Dockers took control through their superior hitout count of 61-23 and clearances of 45-37.

Hayden Young was the match-winner with three crucial goals including a stunning banana from the pocket late, while Josh Treacy booted three goals from eight marks before being forced off late with a facial injury courtesy of an accidental Brayshaw celebration. Luke Jackson was again the engine with 36 Hitouts and a goal.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

Hawthorn walked away from the MCG with a draw after Connor Macdonald kicked the equaliser on the final siren to cancel out Collingwood's late lead. It was an extraordinary finish to a game the Hawks should have won, with their midfield dominating centre clearances 7-0 in the first term yet converting at a poor rate in front of goal, finishing with 13.15 for the match.

Macdonald was outstanding with a career-equal 28 Disposals and three goals, while Jai Newcombe was the best player on the ground. James Sicily battled an ankle injury in the final term and his availability this week will be worth monitoring. The inability to convert their midfield dominance into clean scoring is the one flaw in this Hawks lineup, but at Optus Stadium, they won't need to win by much.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News

Fremantle Dockers Team News: Judd McVee returns from illness, with Jeremy Sharp omitted.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News: Bodie Ryan debuts, while Sam Butler and Max Ramsden return. Calsher Dear is injured, with Jack Scrimshaw and Finn Maginness omitted.

Fremantle	POS	Hawthorn
B. Cox, A. Pearce, H. Chapman	B	J. Sicily, T. Barrass, J. Impey
J. Clark, L. Ryan, K. Worner	HB	B. Ryan, J. Battle, B. Hardwick
N. Erasmus, A. Brayshaw, M. Johnson	C	M. D’Ambrosio, C. Mackenzie, J. Weddle
S. Bolton, M. Reid, S. Switkowski	HF	S. Butler, M. Ramsden, J. Gunston
P. Voss, J. Treacy, J. Amiss	F	D. Moore, M. Lewis, N. Watson
L. Jackson, H. Young, C. Serong	FOLL	N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, J. Ward
M. Frederick, I. Dudley, J. McVee, M. Cox, C. Wagner	I/C	K. Amon, C. Nash, L. Meek, J. Ginnivan, C. Macdonald

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9 FAQ’s

How to watch Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9?

You can watch the Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9?

To buy tickets to the Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 9 game check the AFL website or the official Fremantle Dockers site.

Verdict

Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks

Take Hawthorn to win or cover the +3.5 line and the Game Total to go Under 184.5. Sam Switkowski anytime goalscorer and Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals are the top player props.

Hawthorn +3.5

Line

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Under 184.5

Game Total

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