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Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL Round 5 Tips - Dons Not Up to Par

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Thu 09 Apr 2026 12:08

Ryan Tucker 09 Apr 2026

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Melbourne is predicted to win decisively over Essendon in Round 5.
Essendon shows improvement but needs roster changes to compete at higher levels.
Bet on Brody Mihocek for 3+ goals and Max Gawn for 20+ disposals.
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, 11th April, with the bounce at 1:15 PM (AEDT)

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons, Round 5 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Bombers showed signs of improvement last weekend but the Dee's new playing style will be too fast and too sharp at Gather Round as they are tipped to win big.

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons, Round 5 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Team List & News
Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5 FAQ’s

Melbourne have surprised everyone this season by how rapidly they have been able to implement new structures and game plan under their new coach Steven King. They are much quicker with the ball and their style allows the freedom for the stars to open up space and play their natural game.

Essendon are still Essendon, they have lost 17 straight going back to last year, but last week against the undefeated Bulldogs, they showed signs of improvement. Instead of trying to win the game with every kick, they focused on getting the small things right which allowed them to gain momentum in parts of the game where they have otherwise struggled.

The Dons are still not completely up to AFL standard, there is likely some list changes that need to be made before they are going to be competitive week in and week out against the top sides. This means that if Melbourne can get on top early, they will be able to manage the scoring tempo, making sure that the margin is kept big enough to take victory.

Melbourne just need to make sure to not allow Essendon any type of fast start, but if they play like they did against the Suns, this will be over by halftime.

Take Melbourne to win and cover the 28.5 margin as the Favourite as well as Essendon to go Under their 78.5 Team Total. Brody Mihocek is coming along at his new club, grab him for 3+ goals and Max Gawn for 20+ disposals.

Melbourne’s new style of play has shown significant upside in their attack which is difficult for bookmakers to price in with such a small sample size.
Essendon have not scored over 70 points in 3 straight games and in 4 of the last 6 head to head vs Melbourne.
Brody Mihocek has kicked 7 goals in 4 games and averaged 3.5 shots per game against 3 relatively good defensive teams.
Max Gawn has had 22+ disposals in all 4 games so far this year and 22 in the game last year vs Essendon.

Head to Head Stats

Essendon won the lone matchup last season which was also at Gather Round 96-57 but Melbourne hold a slender 4-3 lead in the head to head since the start of the 2019 season.

All 7 games in this time span have finished with a 1-39 margin irrespective of the winning team. 4 of the 7 have finished Under the Game Total.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

It’s an interesting concept to say a team played well when they lose by 34 pts but Essendon were tipped to lose by between 75 and 100 to the Bulldogs over the Easter Weekend.

Not only did that not happen, they held the Dogs to just 99 pts which even the better teams have been unable to do across the first couple games of the year.

Now Essendon are still not playing at the level of a proper AFL team, they have now lost 17 games in a row, but they did the little things right for longer periods of time which helped them gain some momentum in the match and ultimately keep scores close(r).

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

The Dees are the surprise packet of the 2026 season so far. After moving Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver in the off-season, they weren’t given much hope this year to perform well against top teams.

They knocked off St Kilda in Round 1, then after getting dismantled by the Dockers, regrouped for a come from behind victory over Carlton. Last weekend, the prettiest feather in the cap, they controlled their game against the Suns from start to finish resulting in a 109-89 win.

The Demons new brand of football is exciting and they have the right playing group to execute. Jack Steele and Kysaiah Pickett were the top ball getters while Jake Melksham converted for 4 majors in the game.

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Team List & News

Essendon Bombers Team News: Nate Caddy and Jordan Ridley are both expected to return this weekend.

Melbourne Demons Team News: Bailey Fritsch is a chance to play after pulling out late last weekend.

Essendon	POS	Melbourne
J. Ridley, B. McKay, A. McGrath	B	H. Petty, J. Lever, C. Salem
A. Roberts, Z. Reid, J. Farrow	HB	C. Windsor, T. McDonald, B. Howes
X. Duursma, J. Caldwell, A. Day-Wicks	C	H. Langford, J. Steele, X. Lindsay
S. Durham, N. Caddy, K. Langford	HF	B. Fritsch, J. van Rooyen, K. Chandler
I. Kako, P. Wright, A. May	F	J. Melksham, B. Mihocek, K. Pickett
L. Blakiston, D. Parish, Z. Merrett	FOLL	M. Gawn, E. Langdon, T. Sparrow
E. Tsatas, S. Robey, J. Gresham, J. Prior, T. Edwards	I/C	K. Tholstrup, D. Turner, J. Culley, L. Pickett, H. Sharp

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 5 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Melbourne Demons

Melbourne -28.5

Line

$1.90 - 3 Units

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Essendon Under 78.5

Team Total

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B Mihocek 3+

Goals

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M Gawn 20+

Disposals

$1.65 - 1 Unit

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