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Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Tips - Pies untroubled by Carlton

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu. 03 Jul. 2025 09:38

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Jeremy Darke 03 Jul. 2025

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Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies expert predictions for Friday’s Round 17 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:20 PM (AEST)
The game is anticipated to be low-scoring, staying under 160.5 total points.
Nick Daicos likely to achieve over 30 disposals, continuing his strong form.

Jez's Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Tips

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 17 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Pies will add more misery to the Blues season with their second win over Carlton in 2025.

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 17 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17 FAQ’s

Carlton’s season is a shambles and they are under the pump in a big way and unfortunately for them they face the best team in the AFL. The Blues have not been able to get it together and have suffered two consecutive embarrassing losses and a third loss is on the cards.

I expect a bit of fight from the Blues on the big occasion against the Pies, that is simply how a Friday night blockbuster always goes between these two. So Collingwood 1-39 is the play with that margin hitting in every contest over the last 6 years between these two.

There will be periods in the match where the ball bogs down which will slow the scoring, just as it was in their Round 4 clash earlier this season. The game total sits at 160.5 and despite it being low, I expect the under here.

Big matches against big rivals are built for big-time players so expect Nick Daicos to be all over the ball and rack up 30+ disposals for the fifth time in his last 6 matches.

Every match between Carlton and Collingwood since 2019 (11 games) has been decided by a 1-39 margin.
Collingwood are third in opposition goals per inside 50 vs Carlton’s attack ranked 17th.
7 of the last 9 Carlton matches have gone under the game total.
Nick Daicos has had 30+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head

Collingwood won the 30th Peter Mac Cup in Round 4 against Carlton, getting up in the rivalry contest 8.15 (63) to 6.10 (46).

It was a close contest with Carlton actually leading 29-25 at half time, however the Pies kicked away in the third and never looked back.

Collingwood have won the last 3 against Carlton and 9 of the last 11 since 2019.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	1-4	2-3

Carlton’s season is in tatters with a 6-9 record that has them sitting 11th on the ladder and 3 wins outside of finals contention. The media are swarming and the Blues are the talk of the town, with coach Michael Voss and his star lineup all under heavy scrutiny.

The Blues latest shamble performance was a 50-point loss to Port, heading into the half time break already down by 46-points. Despite having so much firepower on their list, Carlton were dominated, giving up 228 contested possessions to their own 165 and losing the hit-out battle 45-24.

Carlton also had heavy problems once again converting inside 50’s into points with an efficiency of just 58.1%. The forward 50 area has been the biggest concern for the Blues, who rank 17th in goals per inside 50 in 2025.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-10	3-12	4-7	2-2

Carlton Blues Team News

Facing another embarrassing loss last week, Michael Voss is expected to make some changes to his side.

Updates on the Carlton list are expected on Thursday evening.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: S.Docherty, J.Weitering, L.Cowan

HB: O.Hollands, N.Haynes, A.Cerra

C: O.Fantasia, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres

HF: J.Motlop, M.McGovern, L.Fogarty

F: Z.Williams, C.Curnow, A.Moir

FOLL: T.De Koning, C.Lord, G.Hewett

I/C: M.Carroll, F.Young, F.Evans, H.O’Farrell, M.Pittonet

EMG: B.Wilson, C.Durdin, L.Young

In: - L.Cowan, A.Moir, M.Carroll, F.Evans, H.O’Farrell, M.Pittonet

Out: - J.Boyd (Omitted), A.Saad (Injured), J.Silvagni (Injured), A.Cincotta (Omitted), B.Wilson (Omitted), L.Young (Omitted)

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	3-2	1-4

The Collingwood train keeps on rolling, but it was an underwhelming performance last week against wooden spooners West Coast last weekend.

The Pies went into the main break, down 43-35 against the Eagles, however, turned the game around in the Premiership quarter, kicking the first 4 goals to lead by 10 heading into the final term where they kept West Coast goalless.

The Pies are 10 points clear of the pack at the top of the table and have their defence to thank for that which concedes an average of just 68.4 points all season. Collingwood ranks second in opposition marks inside 50, third in opposition goals per inside 50 and are second in points from turnovers.

Their ability to strangle their opponents sends a shiver down every team’s spine.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-6	6-9	8-1	5-1

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Lachie Shultz is close to a return and could be available after a test later in the week. Ash Johnson will also be up for selection after recovering from a fibula injury.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Maynard, J.Howe, I.Quaynor

HB: J.Daicos, D.Moore - C, H.Perryman

C: J.Crisp, S.Pendlebury, R.Steele

HF: D.McStay, T.Membrey, J.Elliott

F: W.Hoskin-Elliott, B.Mihocek, P.Lipinski

FOLL: D.Cameron, N.Long, N.Daicos

I/C: T.Mitchell, D.Houston, W.Parker, L.Sullivan, O.Markov

EMG: H.DeMattia, W.Hayes, M.Cox

In: - B.Maynard, R.Steele, T.Mitchell, W.Parker

Out: - C.Dean (Omitted), E.Allan (Illness), C.West (Injured), S.Sidebottom (Illness)

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 17 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood will win by 1-39 points in a low scoring contest that stays under 160.5 points.

Nick Daicos will continue to be everywhere for the Pies and collect 30+ disposals.

Collingwood

1-39 Winning Margin

$2.25 - 2 Units

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Under 160.5

Game Total

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Nick Daicos

30+ Disposals

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