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AFL Round 5 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Gather Round

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Wed 08 Apr 2026 10:01

Jesse Mclure 08 Apr 2026

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True Footy's Just the Tips Round 5
Adelaide is favoured over Carlton despite close losses.
Fremantle anticipated to leverage Collingwood's weakened defense.
Brisbane's depth expected to surpass North Melbourne.

True Fotty Just The Tips

AFL Round 5 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Gather Round is here, and the 2026 AFL season is already starting to take shape.

Contenders are emerging, pressure is building on struggling sides, and the neutral venue factor adds another layer of unpredictability. With nine games on the slate, this is one of the most important rounds of the early season.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 5 game.

Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction

Adelaide’s record doesn’t fully reflect their form, with narrow losses against quality opposition highlighting they’re not far off. At Adelaide Oval, they remain a tough side to beat, especially with players like Riley Thilthorpe and Jordan Dawson leading the way.

Carlton continue to show the same pattern — strong starts followed by fadeouts. With Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh capable of controlling games early but lacking consistency across four quarters, it’s hard to trust them here.

Jesse’s Tip: Adelaide by 31 points

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Collingwood vs Fremantle Prediction

Collingwood looked exposed without key personnel, particularly in defence, and their lack of depth is becoming an issue. Fremantle, led by Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw, have been strong in patches and sit comfortably among the better sides so far.

With Darcy Moore still likely out, Fremantle’s forward pressure and midfield control should be enough to break through Collingwood’s system.

Jesse’s Tip: Fremantle by 21 points

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North Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction

North Melbourne have improved significantly, but this represents their biggest test of the season. Luke Davies-Uniacke has been central to their midfield rise, but the absence of Finn O’Sullivan would hurt.

Brisbane, led by Lachie Neale and supported by their deep midfield rotation, appear to be hitting form. Against stronger opposition, their class should show.

Jesse’s Tip: Brisbane by 45 points

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Essendon vs Melbourne Prediction

Essendon have been more competitive than results suggest, but still lack the polish and consistency of stronger sides. Melbourne, on the other hand, are building momentum.

With Max Gawn dominating in the ruck and Kozzy Pickett providing spark forward, the Demons’ blend of youth and experience is starting to click.

Jesse’s Tip: Melbourne by 34 points

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Sydney vs Gold Coast Prediction

This is one of the biggest games of the round between two genuine contenders. Sydney’s transition game, led by Chad Warner and Errol Gulden, remains one of the most dangerous in the league.

Gold Coast, with Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson, boast elite midfield power, but their recent slip against Melbourne raises some questions.

Jesse’s Tip: Sydney by 9 points

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Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Potentially a finals preview, this matchup pits Hawthorn’s defensive system against the Bulldogs’ explosive midfield and forward line.

Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore give the Bulldogs a clear edge at stoppages, but Hawthorn’s backline structure and ability to absorb pressure could be the difference in a high-quality contest.

Jesse’s Tip: Hawthorn by 14 points

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Geelong vs West Coast Prediction

Geelong will be eager to respond after a frustrating loss and remain a side capable of shifting gears quickly.

West Coast have shown improvement this season but still lack the firepower to match top-tier teams. With players like Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart controlling key areas, the Cats should dominate.

Jesse’s Tip: Geelong by 71 points

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GWS Giants vs Richmond Prediction

GWS have been inconsistent and vulnerable, particularly when their midfield is beaten. Richmond, while lacking star power, have shown they can compete in patches and bring strong contest pressure.

If Richmond can win enough of the ball through players like Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, they have a chance to cause an upset.

Jesse’s Tip: Richmond by 4 points

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Port Adelaide vs St Kilda Prediction

Port Adelaide have underwhelmed despite a relatively soft fixture, raising concerns about their overall level. St Kilda have also been inconsistent but showed enough against GWS to suggest they can compete.

With Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera providing drive, the Saints may be better equipped to handle the conditions and pressure moments.

Jesse’s Tip: St Kilda by 10 points