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AFL Round 4 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Mon 30 Mar 2026 17:58

Jesse Mclure 30 Mar 2026

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AFL Round 4 Tips predicted by Jesse from True Footy AFL Podcast
Brisbane poised to beat Collingwood by 26 points at home.
North Melbourne's consistency to edge Carlton by 10 points.
Geelong's experience to narrowly overcome Hawthorn.

Round 4 AFL Tips (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

AFL Round 4 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Round 4 is where early-season trends start to harden into reality.

AFL Round 4 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction
North Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Adelaide vs Fremantle Prediction
Richmond vs Port Adelaide Prediction
West Coast vs Sydney Prediction
Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prediction
Hawthorn vs Geelong Prediction

Some clubs are building genuine momentum, others are already under pressure, and a few are still impossible to get a read on. With contenders beginning to separate and weaknesses exposed, this round shapes as a key checkpoint in the 2026 season.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 4 game.

Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction

Brisbane haven’t fully clicked yet this season but still showed their class with a strong finish against St Kilda. Collingwood remain structurally sound, but the loss of Darcy Moore is significant for a defence-first system.

The Magpies have a strong record at the Gabba, but Brisbane’s ability to surge late and control territory should prove too much, especially if Collingwood struggle to generate scoring opportunities.

Jesse’s Tip: Brisbane by 26 points

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North Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction

This is one of the hardest games to read. North Melbourne have been the more consistent side early in the season, while Carlton have shown patches of strong football but continue to fall away in games.

With Luke Davies-Uniacke leading a midfield that’s trending upward, North look slightly more reliable right now. Carlton’s best is good enough, but their inability to sustain it remains a concern.

Jesse’s Tip: North Melbourne by 10 points

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Adelaide vs Fremantle Prediction

This shapes as one of the games of the round, with both sides performing solidly without fully proving themselves against top opposition.

Fremantle have shown strong midfield form through Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw, while Adelaide’s forward line, led by Riley Thilthorpe and Taylor Walker, remains dangerous. At Adelaide Oval, the Crows’ home-ground advantage could be the difference in what looks a genuine coin-flip contest.

Jesse’s Tip: Adelaide by 2 points

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Richmond vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Port Adelaide have been one of the most disappointing teams to start the season, failing to capitalise on a soft fixture.

Richmond showed some fight early in the year but were well beaten by Fremantle. Despite their struggles, Port still possess more proven talent through Zak Butters and Connor Rozee, which should be enough to get them over the line in a close game.

Jesse’s Tip: Port Adelaide by 8 points

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West Coast vs Sydney Prediction

West Coast have shown clear improvement this season, picking up wins and becoming more competitive across four quarters.

However, Sydney remain one of the competition’s most dangerous sides, with their ball movement and transition game capable of overwhelming teams quickly. If the Swans start fast, this could get away from the Eagles early.

Jesse’s Tip: Sydney by 30 points

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Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction

Melbourne have shown flashes of quality this season, with Max Gawn and Kozzy Pickett leading the way, but they remain inconsistent.

Gold Coast, on the other hand, have looked like one of the most complete teams in the competition. With Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson controlling the midfield, the Suns should have too much firepower.

Jesse’s Tip: Gold Coast by 36 points

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Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prediction

The Bulldogs have started the season in dominant fashion, beating strong opposition and showcasing their midfield power.

With Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and a dangerous forward line led by Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton, they present a serious challenge. Essendon are still rebuilding and may struggle to contain the Bulldogs’ clearance dominance and scoring ability.

Jesse’s Tip: Western Bulldogs by 80 points

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Hawthorn vs Geelong Prediction

This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the round and a rematch of last year’s finals clash.

Hawthorn have shown strong form, including a win over Sydney, while Geelong have responded well after an early loss with consecutive wins. With both sides evenly matched, experience and composure could be decisive — and Geelong may just have the edge.

Jesse’s Tip: Geelong by 13 points

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