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Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 7 Tips - Knights To Keep It Close

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 17 Apr 2026 12:28

Ryan Tucker 17 Apr 2026

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Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 19th April at Allianz Stadium
Roosters predicted to win, but historical data suggests a close game.
Market line overestimated; Knights value at +11.5.
Betting tip: Game Total Under 52.5 and Radley as anytime tryscorer.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights, Round 7 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Roosters are expected to win but the market has severely overestimated the margin, making this one of the better value plays of the round.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights, Round 7 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Sydney Roosters Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Team List & Team News
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7 FAQ’s

Despite their inconsistent start to the season, what has remained constant for the Roosters is their dominance at Allianz Stadium and their record in this particular matchup, winning four of the last five meetings.

The model's fair line sits at -3.4 against a market of -11.5, a gap of eight points that is very hard to ignore. History backs this up too, with three of those five games decided by just two points.

Newcastle are not as bad as last week's 42-22 loss suggests. They have gone 3-2 across their last five and averaged 25 points in that stretch, and they now welcome back Dylan Brown who adds a completely different dimension to their attack. The Roosters hold the edge in run metres and post-contact metres which should be enough to get the win, but a blowout looks unlikely.

The projected total of 46.8 against a market line of 52.5 is a significant gap and makes the Under the standout play regardless of how the scoreline shapes up.

Take the Knights to cover at +11.5, the Game Total Under 52.5, and Victor Radley as anytime tryscorer who carries a 7-point model edge over the market price.

The Roosters have won 4 of the last 5 head to head meetings but by an average margin of just 4.8 points.
The model's fair line for this game is -3.4, nearly 8 points shorter than the current market of -11.5.
The Under has hit in just 46% of games this season, it is underrepresented, and the model projects a total of 46.8 against a market of 52.5.
Victor Radley has a model probability of 25.2% as anytime tryscorer against a market implied probability of 18.2%, a 7-point edge.

Head to Head

These two sides have a rivalry that consistently runs closer than the ladder positions suggest. Last season's encounter was a tight 12-8 win to the Roosters in Newcastle, and the four wins prior to that all came by margins of 30, 2, 2 and 2 points respectively, three of the five decided by a single converted try. The Roosters clearly hold the edge in this matchup but anyone expecting a blowout has not been paying attention.

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis

The Roosters head into Round 7 off the back of an impressive 34-22 win over the Sharks in Perth last weekend, their third win in the last five games. The result was built on a dominant second half after they trailed by 10 at the break, which is arguably the most encouraging sign with the ability to adjust and grind the game out when it matters.

Victor Radley returned from suspension and made an immediate impact, while Daly Cherry-Evans and Daniel Tupou both crossed twice. Trent Robinson has named an unchanged 17 which is a clear statement of confidence heading into this one.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Newcastle were dealt a heavy defeat last week, going down 42-22 to the Tigers at Campbelltown, but their record before that game was an encouraging 3-1 over the four rounds prior. They sit sixth on the ladder and will be desperate to protect that top eight spot.

The return of Dylan Brown is the headline and his move into the halves sees Fletcher Sharpe shift to fullback which is his natural position and also gives the Knights a genuine point of difference out the back.

Sharpe has been excellent in limited minutes this season and now gets the chance to dictate from his preferred role. The Knights have the pieces to stay in this game; the question is whether they have the consistency to see out 80 minutes on the road against a side that has their number.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 7 Team List Article.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7 FAQ’s

How to livestream Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7?

You can livestream the Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 7 game check the NRL website or the official Sydney Roosters site.

Verdict

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

Take the Knights to cover at +11.5, the Game Total Under 52.5, and Victor Radley as anytime tryscorer who carries a 7-point model edge over the market price.

Newcastle +11.5

Line

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Under 52.5

Game Total

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V Radley

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V Radley

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