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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 7 Tips & Prediction - Dragons to cover
In an intriguing NRL Round 7 matchup, the South Sydney Rabbitohs face off against the struggling St George Illawarra Dragons. Despite the Rabbitohs' apparent strength, inconsistency and key injuries, such as Jye Gray's absence, may leave them vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Dragons have shown occasional promise but struggle with playmaking depth. The article leans towards the Dragons covering a +13.5 line given past performances, with the total points likely staying under 52.5. Both teams are facing lineup changes, including Matt Dufty stepping in for Souths.
- South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 7 game
- Dragons in dire form, but Souths haven't covered a -13.5 line all season
- Dragons have been in the majority of their games - tipped to keep this closer & cover
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 5.30pm AEST on Saturday April 18
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 7 Tips & Prediction
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 7 Tips & Prediction
Can the Dragons finally breathe some fire into their dismal start to the season and take down South Sydney on Super Saturday?
I'm probably guilty of overthinking this one. Simple logic dictates that the Dragons are terrible with no halves, while Souths have one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the NRL and should have no trouble piling on the points against the winless side coming last. Sounds like a simple play to take the Bunnies for a big win with plenty of points.
BUT, I'm going in the opposite direction. The Rabbitohs are a funny team that can be downright awful at times - case in point, the first half against an average Canberra team last week, where they went behind 24-4. Souths can leak points quickly and their focus, concentration, discipline and intensity fluctuates wildly. They also haven't won a game by 13+ all season.
Additionally, I think the loss of fullback Jye Gray to injury is huge. Souths have lost their last six games when Gray hasn't played - that gives you an indication of his influence at the back and how he can get their sets off on the front foot.
I don't really have anything to say about the Dragons that gives this bet any hope, other than they've been leading in the second half in three of their six games and were level with the Bulldogs at the end of 80 minutes. They've been in a lot of their games, it's just Kyle Flanagan and Daniel Atkinson aren't natural playmakers. So, as mentioned, taking the Dragons to cover a big +13.5 line and the total of 52.5 points also looks very big. Setu Tu looks the best value outside back for a try.
Rabbitohs vs Dragons Stats & Trends
- Dragons have covered a +13.5 line in four of their last five games vs Souths
- Dragons have covered a +13.5 line in four of their six games this season
- Rabbitohs have failed to cover a -13.5 line in all five games this season
- Dragons have seen Under 52.5 points in five of their six games this season
- Under 52.5 points has landed in the last four NRL meetings between the teams
- Setu Tu has scored a try in two of his last four games
- Rabbitohs have conceded 1+ try to an opposition winger in four of their five games this season
- Rabbitohs have lost their last six games without fullback Jye Gray
Rabbitohs vs Dragons Head To Head
The Dragons have won three of the last five meetings, but Souths have prevailed in the last two.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rabbitohs | 40–0 | Accor |
| 2025 | Rabbitohs | 25–24 | WIN |
| 2024 | Dragons | 28–14 | Netstrata |
| 2023 | Dragons | 26–14 | Barlow Park |
| 2023 | Dragons | 36–30 | Netstrata |
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis
Souths remain one of the hardest teams to get a read on in the NRL.
After impressive back-to-back victories over the Tigers and Bulldogs, the Bunnies were terrible in the first half of last week's defeat to Canberra out in Perth.
The Rabbitohs were all over the place as they trailed 22-4 at the break. Wayne Bennett's half-time spray got them back on track, but the damage was done and not even a late flurry of points could save them as they went down 36-34.
The loss of Jye Gray to injury was huge, with Latrell getting found out at fullback with some lazy positioning and various other errors.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News
Former Dragon Matt Dufty gets his second chance in the NRL and replaces Gray at fullback, while Lachlan Hubner comes in for David Fififta, who is out with a hamstring injury.
Reserves
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List
1. Matthew Dufty
2. Alex Johnston
3. Latrell Mitchell
4. Jack Wighton
5. Campbell Graham
6. Cody Walker
7. Jamie Humphreys
8. Tevita Tatola
9. Brandon Smith
10. Keaon Koloamatangi
11. Lachlan Hubner
12. Tallis Duncan
13. Cameron Murray
Interchange
14. Peter Mamouzelos
15. Bronson Garlick
16. Sean Keppie
17. Jayden Sullivan
Reserves
18. Edward Kosi
19. Thomas Fletcher
20. Salesi Ataata
21. Moala Graham-Taufa
22. Liam Le Blanc
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
What else is there left to say about the Dragons?
They've been absolutely woeful to start the season - their attack is completely non-existent and it's obvious for anyone to see that Kyle Flanagan would have been dropped a long time ago if he wasn't the coach's son.
Nathaniel Atkinson simply isn't a natural halfback to take on the creative responsibility and their defence just hasn't been able to hold on, probably knowing they don't have enough points in them to be competitive.
Somehow, the Dragons found themselves in a winning position in the second half against Manly, but they couldn't ice the game and ultimately went down 28-18 to fall to 0-6 this season.
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
Mat Feagai starts in place of Moses Suli, who is out with an eye socket injury.
Reserves
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List
1. Tyrell Sloan
2. Christian Tuipulotu
3. Mathew Feagai
4. Valentine Holmes
5. Setu Tu
6. Daniel Atkinson
7. Kyle Flanagan
8. Emre Guler
9. Damien Cook
10. Toby Couchman
11. Luciano Leilua
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Hamish Stewart
Interchange
14. Jacob Liddle
15. Blake Lawrie
16. Jacob Halangahu
17. Josh Kerr
Reserves
18. Hame Sele
19. Kade Reed
20. David Fale
21. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga
22. Lyhkan King-Togia
Verdict
Against my better judgement, backing the Dragons to cover in a game that sees Under 52.5 total points.
Dragons +13.5
Line
$1.88 - 3 Units
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