2026 NRL State of Origin Series

State of Origin Game 2 Tips and Predictions NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons - MCG trend the deal breaker

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 11 Jun 2026 14:29

Jeremy Darke 3 hours ago

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NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin games at the MCG and the last 3 in Melbourne.
Casey McLean expected to be a key difference for the Blues.
Expert tips NSW Blues to edge out QLD in a tight Game 2.
Kick off is at 8:05 PM (AEST) on Wednesday 18th June, at MCG

State of Origin Game 2 Tips and Predictions

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 2 2026 - Expert Prediction

History states that if NSW let this Game 2 go and the drawn series heads to Brisbane they will lose with 5 of the last 6 deciders being won by Queensland. They will not let this chance go.

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 2 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
NSW Blues Form Analysis
NSW Blues Team News
QLD Maroons Form Analysis
QLD Maroons Team News
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 FAQ’s

Despite Melbourne being seen as a second home for the Queenslanders, the Maroons record is not great, especially at the MCG with the Blues winning 5 of 6 matches played at the venue with the Docklands being the undefeated fortress for QLD in Victoria.

Queensland were in full control of Game 2 before the send-off of Kalyn Ponga and would like to think that they can replicate that start that they had at MCG in the opener, but that is not likely either.

Casey McLean made a huge difference when coming onto the field for the injured Tolutau Koula and now he will start in the centres for the Blues alongside Penrith team mate Brian To’o and Nathan Cleary feeding the pair quality ball.

As the bookies suggest, this game is a flip of the coin, and the real play here is likely either team 1-12, but you have to pick a winner and I surely hope that backing the Blues to wrap up the series gets QLD across the line and sends this one to a decider.

In any tight game you have to lean into the trends and they point to the Blues at the MCG, who have won the last 4 at the iconic venue. NSW have won (38-18 in 2024) the only game 2 played in Melbourne in the last 10 years. Also in the last 10 game two’s NSW have outscored QLD by an average of 22 - 17.2.

The man crush on Casey McLean boils over into the anytime try scorer market with the Penrith centre expected to play a big role for the Blues and cross for the first of many Origin tries.

NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin matches played at the MCG including the last 3 matches played in Melbourne.
NSW have won 5 of the last 8 Game 2s
The average winning margin in Melbourne in the last 10 matches is 8.7 points
Casey McLean has 8 tries in 4 appearances for New Zealand.

Head to Head

NSW pulled off a last-minute miracle to defeat a 12-man QLD side 22-20 after Kalyn Ponga was sent off in the 57th minute with QLD leading 20-6.

State of Origin Game 2 head to head record in the last 10 matches is deadlocked at 5 wins each.

NSW has a 6-4 lead in matches played in Melbourne but a 5-1 advantage at the MCG.

NSW Blues Form Analysis

It is no secret that the Blues escaped with the Game 2 victory after playing with an extra man for the final 23 minutes of the match and needing the final second to claim a 22-20 win.

The opening 20 minutes was ugly, real ugly. Dropped ball, poor discipline and a 0-20 deficit that had put them well on the back foot. In the first half they had made 5 errors and 23 missed tackles and needed a miracle to save them after the break, which came.

Ethan Strange was a clear spark in his Blues debut with a try, a line break, 2 line break assists along with 15 runs and 135 metres, however it was his halves partner and man of the match Nathan Cleary that made the special plays that clawed the Blues back to the win.

The Penrith master kicked a 40/20 that changed the momentum and finished it off with a four-pointer himself and setting up two of the remaining three NSW tries. Finally a master class at Origin level for Cleary.

NSW Blues Team News

NSW have made several key changes for Game 2, with Mitchell Moses set to return at five-eighth after missing the series opener, pushing Ethan Strange to a bench role.

Payne Haas also returns to strengthen the forward pack, while Dylan Lucas earns a starting spot and Jacob Saifiti drops out of the squad. In the backline, James Tedesco retains the fullback role ahead of Dylan Edwards, while a late injury to Stephen Crichton sees Kotoni Staggs partnered by Casey McLean in the centres.

Reece Robson keeps the No.9 jersey following Blayke Brailey's injury, with Api Koroisau added to the squad as cover.

QLD Maroons Form Analysis

QLD did everything right in Game 2 beside Kalyn Ponga getting sent off in the 57th minute. Even then, they did everything right to keep themselves in the match.

The Maroons took the chances presented to them by the Blues with three tries in the opening 16 minutes of the game and then played the percentage plays that kept them in full control of the match until the Ponga incident. They had 56% possession and 54% of the territory in the first half with 20 more runs than the Blues and over 200 more run metres.

In the second half, they even spent more time in the Blues half at 53% than the Blues did in theirs and put in a champion effort to hold on to literally the final seconds of the match. But it just wasn’t meant to be.

Sam Walker was a real difference also on debut, creating 2 try assists and a line break assist, however it was his kicking game that was the difference with his precision pinning the Blues in their own end and creating scoring chances for his outside men.

QLD Maroons Team News

Queensland has largely stuck with the side that won Game 2, with Billy Slater retaining Kalyn Ponga at fullback despite his costly send-off in the series opener.

Reece Walsh returns to the squad as a potential impact player off the bench, while Sam Walker keeps his place at halfback after an encouraging Origin debut. T

he Maroons have been forced into one key forward change, with injured lock Patrick Carrigan replaced by Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, while Reuben Cotter shifts to lock and Briton Nikora starts in the second row ahead of Max Plath.

Jojo Fifita has been named on the wing, although Murray Taulagi remains a potential late inclusion.

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists

NSW Blues	No.	Queensland Maroons
James Tedesco	1	Kalyn Ponga
Brian To'o	2	Selwyn Cobbo
Casey McLean	3	Robert Toia
Kotoni Staggs	4	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Tolu Koula	5	Jojo Fifita
Mitchell Moses	6	Cameron Munster (c)
Nathan Cleary	7	Sam Walker
Payne Haas	8	Tom Flegler
Reece Robson	9	Harry Grant
Mitch Barnett	10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
Hudson Young	11	Briton Nikora
Dylan Lucas	12	Kurt Capewell
Isaah Yeo (c)	13	Reuben Cotter
Interchange	-	Interchange
Cameron Murray	14	Max Plath
Victor Radley	15	Lindsay Collins
Addin Fonua-Blake	16	Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
Api Koroisau	17	Trent Loiero
Extended Squad	-	Extended Squad
Ethan Strange	18	Reece Walsh
Mark Nawaqanitawase	19	Murray Tualagi
Haumole Olakau’atu	20	Heilum Luki

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 FAQ’s

How to watch NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2?

You can watch the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2?

To buy tickets to the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 game check the NRL website or the official QLD Maroons site.

Verdict

State of Origin Game 2 - NSW Blues v Queensland Maroons

The Blues in a close game and Casey McLean to be the difference.

NSW Blues

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