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State of Origin Game 2 Tips and Predictions NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons - MCG trend the deal breaker
The NSW Blues and QLD Maroons meet for State of Origin Game 2, 2026, in what promises to be a thrilling contest at the MCG. Recent history favours the Blues at this venue, winning 5 of 6 matches, including the last 3 in Melbourne. Both teams make vital changes, but the expert consensus leans towards the Blues edging out the Maroons in a tight contest, with Casey McLean expected to play a decisive role. The recommendation: Blues to win narrowly, capitalizing on their Melbourne record.
- NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin games at the MCG and the last 3 in Melbourne.
- Casey McLean expected to be a key difference for the Blues.
- Expert tips NSW Blues to edge out QLD in a tight Game 2.
- Kick off is at 8:05 PM (AEST) on Wednesday 18th June, at MCG
State of Origin Game 2 Tips and Predictions NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 2 2026 - Expert Prediction
History states that if NSW let this Game 2 go and the drawn series heads to Brisbane they will lose with 5 of the last 6 deciders being won by Queensland. They will not let this chance go.
- NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 2 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- NSW Blues Form Analysis
- NSW Blues Team News
- QLD Maroons Form Analysis
- QLD Maroons Team News
- NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
- NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 FAQ’s
Despite Melbourne being seen as a second home for the Queenslanders, the Maroons record is not great, especially at the MCG with the Blues winning 5 of 6 matches played at the venue with the Docklands being the undefeated fortress for QLD in Victoria.
Queensland were in full control of Game 2 before the send-off of Kalyn Ponga and would like to think that they can replicate that start that they had at MCG in the opener, but that is not likely either.
Mark Nawaqanitawase comes in for the injured Casey McLean, who was very impactful for the Blues in their Game 1 victory. Nawaqanitawase brings the attacking flair, however will be a point of focus for the QLD's in attack.
As the bookies suggest, this game is a flip of the coin, and the real play here is likely either team 1-12, but you have to pick a winner and I surely hope that backing the Blues to wrap up the series gets QLD across the line and sends this one to a decider.
In any tight game you have to lean into the trends and they point to the Blues at the MCG, who have won the last 4 at the iconic venue. NSW have won (38-18 in 2024) the only game 2 played in Melbourne in the last 10 years. Also in the last 10 game two’s NSW have outscored QLD by an average of 22 - 17.2.
Kotoni Staggs presence the best value in the try scoring market for me. He has 7 tries in 11 matches for Brisbane and was one of NSW's best in Game 2. The Blues centre has a favourable matchup against some undersized centres for the Maroons.
- NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin matches played at the MCG including the last 3 matches played in Melbourne.
- NSW have won 5 of the last 8 Game 2s
- The average winning margin in Melbourne in the last 10 matches is 8.7 points
- Kotoni Staggs has not yet scored for the Blues in his 2 Origin appearences.
Head to Head
NSW pulled off a last-minute miracle to defeat a 12-man QLD side 22-20 after Kalyn Ponga was sent off in the 57th minute with QLD leading 20-6.
State of Origin Game 2 head to head record in the last 10 matches is deadlocked at 5 wins each.
NSW has a 6-4 lead in matches played in Melbourne but a 5-1 advantage at the MCG.
NSW Blues Form Analysis
It is no secret that the Blues escaped with the Game 2 victory after playing with an extra man for the final 23 minutes of the match and needing the final second to claim a 22-20 win.
The opening 20 minutes was ugly, real ugly. Dropped ball, poor discipline and a 0-20 deficit that had put them well on the back foot. In the first half they had made 5 errors and 23 missed tackles and needed a miracle to save them after the break, which came.
Ethan Strange was a clear spark in his Blues debut with a try, a line break, 2 line break assists along with 15 runs and 135 metres, however it was his halves partner and man of the match Nathan Cleary that made the special plays that clawed the Blues back to the win.
The Penrith master kicked a 40/20 that changed the momentum and finished it off with a four-pointer himself and setting up two of the remaining three NSW tries. Finally a master class at Origin level for Cleary.
NSW Blues Team News
NSW have made several key changes for Game 2, with Mitchell Moses set to return at five-eighth after missing the series opener, pushing Ethan Strange to a bench role.
Payne Haas also returns to strengthen the forward pack, while Dylan Lucas earns a starting spot and Jacob Saifiti drops out of the squad. In the backline, James Tedesco retains the fullback role ahead of Dylan Edwards, while a late injury to Stephen Crichton sees Kotoni Staggs partnered by Casey McLean in the centres.
Reece Robson keeps the No.9 jersey following Blayke Brailey's injury, with Api Koroisau added to the squad as cover.
QLD Maroons Form Analysis
QLD did everything right in Game 2 beside Kalyn Ponga getting sent off in the 57th minute. Even then, they did everything right to keep themselves in the match.
The Maroons took the chances presented to them by the Blues with three tries in the opening 16 minutes of the game and then played the percentage plays that kept them in full control of the match until the Ponga incident. They had 56% possession and 54% of the territory in the first half with 20 more runs than the Blues and over 200 more run metres.
In the second half, they even spent more time in the Blues half at 53% than the Blues did in theirs and put in a champion effort to hold on to literally the final seconds of the match. But it just wasn’t meant to be.
Sam Walker was a real difference also on debut, creating 2 try assists and a line break assist, however it was his kicking game that was the difference with his precision pinning the Blues in their own end and creating scoring chances for his outside men.
QLD Maroons Team News
Queensland has largely stuck with the side that won Game 2, with Billy Slater retaining Kalyn Ponga at fullback despite his costly send-off in the series opener.
Reece Walsh returns to the squad as a potential impact player off the bench, while Sam Walker keeps his place at halfback after an encouraging Origin debut. T
he Maroons have been forced into one key forward change, with injured lock Patrick Carrigan replaced by Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, while Reuben Cotter shifts to lock and Briton Nikora starts in the second row ahead of Max Plath.
Jojo Fifita has been named on the wing, although Murray Taulagi remains a potential late inclusion.
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
| NSW Blues | No. | |
|---|---|---|
| James Tedesco | 1 | Kalyn Ponga |
| Brian To'o | 2 | Selwyn Cobbo |
| Tolutau Koula | 3 | Robert Toia |
| Kotoni Staggs | 4 | |
| Mark Nawaqanitawase | 5 | Jojo Fifita |
| Mitchell Moses | 6 | |
| Nathan Cleary | 7 | Sam Walker |
| Payne Haas | 8 | Tom Flegler |
| Reece Robson | 9 | Harry Grant |
| Mitch Barnett | 10 | |
| Hudson Young | 11 | Briton Nikora |
| Dylan Lucas | 12 | Kurt Capewell |
| Isaah Yeo (c) | 13 | Reuben Cotter |
| Interchange | - | Interchange |
| Cameron Murray | 14 | Max Plath |
| Victor Radley | 15 | Lindsay Collins |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | 16 | |
| Api Koroisau | 17 | Trent Loiero |
| Extended Squad | - | |
| Ethan Strange | 18 | Reece Walsh |
| Jack Bostock | 19 | Murray Tualagi |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | 20 | Heilum Luki |
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 FAQ’s
How to watch NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2?
You can watch the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2?
To buy tickets to the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 2 game check the NRL website or the official QLD Maroons site.
Verdict
The Blues in a close game and Casey McLean to be the difference.
NSW Blues
Money Line
$1.74 - 2 Units
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Casey McLean
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$3.10 - 1 Unit
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