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St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Round 5 Tips & Prediction - Dragons to get off the mark

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 02 Apr 2026 14:18

Andrew Hendrie 02 Apr 2026

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 5 game
Cowboys tend to struggle away from Townsville - Dragons tipped for first win of 2026
Recent meetings have been extremely high-scoring, Over 47.5 points backed
The game is scheduled for kick off at 5.30pm AEDT on Saturday April 4

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Round 5 Tips

St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Round 5 Tips & Prediction

The Dragons are looking to avoid a 0-5 start for the first time since becoming a joint-venture as they prepare to welcome the Cowboys to Jubilee Stadium on Saturday.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Round 5 Tips & Prediction
Dragons vs Cowboys Stats & Trends
Dragons vs Cowboys Head To Head
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis
North Queensland Cowboys Team News

I'll be honest. Every week there's maybe 1-2 games that you just want to steer clear of. And this is certainly one of them. With that being said, I'll be backing the Dragons to snap their eight-game losing streak that dates back to the end of last year.

I just can't take the Cowboys as favourites on the road. They were absolutely diabolical against the Tigers in Leichhardt, but credit where credit's due, they were impressive in downing Melbourne last week. But, that was in Townsville. This game is in Sydney and the Cows have only won two of their last 10 games on the road.

So yes, this bet is more about fading the unreliable Cowboys than having faith in the Dragons. The best bet for me is Over 47.5 total points, which has comfortably landed in the last three meetings and North Queensland tend to be an 'Overs' team with plenty of points in them, but vulnerable defence.

Obviously you never want to see anyone seriously hurt, but Kyle Flanagan's absence due to last week's concussion could potentially open up this Dragons' attack, with the far more dangerous Lyhkan King-Togia slotting into the halves. Christian Tuipulotu can be impactful on the wing and continue his good tryscoring record at Jubilee.

Dragons vs Cowboys Stats & Trends

Cowboys have lost eight of their last 10 away games
Dragons have won six of their last 11 home games
The last three meetings have seen 64+ points
Cowboys have seen Over 47.5 points in four of their last six games
Dragons have seen Over 47.5 points in four of their last six games
Christian Tuipulotu has scored five tries in his last five games at Jubilee Stadium

Dragons vs Cowboys Head To Head

The Cowboys have won their last six games against the Dragons, including a high-scoring 38-32 victory in Townsville in Round 21 last season, with Tom Dearden crossing for a double.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	North Qld	38–32	QLD C. Bank
2024	North Qld	46–24	Netstrata
2023	North Qld	42–22	QLD C. Bank
2022	North Qld	34–8	Netstrata
2022	North Qld	31–12	QLD C. Bank

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

Nightmare start to the season for the Dragons, but they've been in with a chance of winning three of their four games.

St George Illawarra were unlucky in Vegas against the Dogs before being blown away by the Storm. A 30-20 defeat to the Eels followed before last week's lacklustre 22-14 defeat to the Titans, handing Gold Coast their first victory of the season in what might easily have been an early preview of 'Spoon Bowl'.

It was a dismal performance from the Dragons - they missed 31 tackles and made 11 errors. Do that against better teams than the Titans and they'll keep getting towelled up.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Lyhkan King-Togia comes in for Kyle Flanagan, who is out with concussion. Moses Suli is back after missing last week's game due to personal reasons.

David Fale makes his Dragons' debut after scoring four tries in the NSW Cup, while Toby Couchman returns from concussion. Tyrell Sloan makes way to the six-man bench.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Christian Tuipulotu

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. David Fale

6. Lyhkan King-Togia

7. Daniel Atkinson

8. Emre Guler

9. Damien Cook

10. Toby Couchman

11. Luciano Leilua

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Hamish Stewart

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. Blake Lawrie

16. Jacob Halangahu

17. Hame Sele

Reserves

18. Josh Kerr

19. Tyrell Sloan

20. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga

21. Kade Reed

22. Setu Tu

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis

It was a dreadful start to the season for North Queensland following back-to-back defeats to the Knights and Tigers, with early pressure mounting again on Todd Payten.

However, the Cowboys have steadied the ship over the last fortnight, doing just enough to overcome the Titans 30-16 before last week's stirring comeback victory over the Storm in Townsville.

North Queensland scored three tries in the last 12 minutes to come away with a 28-24 win. Jake Clifford produced his best performance in years, scoring a try, running for 152 metres and registering two line breaks.

North Queensland Cowboys Team News

Tom Chester returns from suspension, pushing Zac Laybutt back to the six-man bench.

North Queensland Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Braidon Burns

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Tomas Chester

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Jake Clifford

7. Tom Dearden

8. Coen Hess

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. Heilum Luki

12. Sam McIntyre

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Soni Luke

15. Griffin Neame

16. Thomas Mikaele

17. Matthew Lodge

Reserves

18. Harrison Edwards

19. Zac Laybutt

20. Kai O’Donnell

21. Kaiden Lahrs

22. Robert Derby

Verdict

St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys

The Dragons are tentatively - and I stress tentatively - tipped for the upset at home in a game that features Over 47.5 points.

Over 47.5

Total Points

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