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Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL Round 5 Tips - Tight Margin Expected in Grind Game

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 03 Apr 2026 13:13

Ryan Tucker 03 Apr 2026

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Canberra Raiders predicted to win by a 1-12 point margin over Newcastle Knights.
Game expected to be low-scoring; Canberra holds strategic advantages.
Fletcher Hunt, with a good strike rate, is expected to score a try.
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 5th April at McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders, Round 5 2026 - Expert Prediction

Canberra are tipped to win and cover as the road favourite this Easter Sunday due to Newcastle’s inability to score points.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders, Round 5 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Team List & Team News
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5 FAQ’s

This game isn’t expected to be a high scoring shootout, both teams like to grind out their games, especially Newcastle right now with half of their spine missing through injury. Canberra have a penchant for close games with 15 of 26 games last season and 3 of 4 this season all finishing with margins of 1-12 pts.

It is hard to get a proper read on the Knights defence given they have played 3 teams that are struggling in attack, what is important to take out of those games though is they have allowed an average of 1825 Run Metres and 572 Post Contact Metres. Canberra will get up the field and the final score will be dictated by goal line defence and creativity inside the red zone.

Canberra have the better playmakers and across the board the better team. Newcastle have individuals that can break open a game but against a structured Raiders outfit and in a game which is expected to be an arm-wrestle for the entire 80 minutes those individual opportunities are likely to be few and far between.

The top pick in this game is Canberra to win by a 1-12 margin with the Game Total going Under. Fullbacks have a good strike rate against Canberra, take Fletcher Hunt to cross for a try.

3 of Canberra’s 4 games this season have finished with a 1-12 margin. The majority of their games last year also finished with that margin. Away favourites are covering at the highest rate of this season 57.1%
5 of the last 6 regular season matchups between these two teams have gone Under the Game Total.
Canberra have allowed a try to opposition fullbacks in 3 of 4 games this season.
Fletcher Hunt has scored in 2 of his 3 games this season and crossed for a try in this same matchup last season.

Head to Head

Canberra won both matchups last year and 3 of the last 4 but it is a clean 6-6 record in regular season matchups since the start of the 2019 season.

The Game total has gone Under in 8 of 12 games in the same span including 5 straight before the most recent game went Over.

Newcastle have a 8-4 ATS record in this matchup.

Knights Atk Rank	Raiders Def Rank	Stat	Raiders Atk Rank	Knights Def Rank
6	14	Points	15	6
10	8	Run Mts	12	13
8	6	Linebreaks	4	10
14	16	Compl %	8	7

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

The Knights had one of the upsets of the round last weekend, beating the Bulldogs 24-16 at Accor. It was their third win of the season, pushing them up to 4th on the ladder after 4 rounds of footy.

Newcastle fans were devastated after losing both Dylan Brown and Kalyn Ponga after just a couple of games but the Knights have been able to rally by doing the small things well and often.

It is still likely that they will struggle to score lots of points against top sides until their full spine is back but they will pull their opposition into a grind and try to take advantage of opportunities to score when they appear.

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis

Canberra are 1-3 to start the year and we are one more loss away from designating a hangover and regression from last year’s table topping performance. Last week they lost 34-22 at home to the Sharks.

Both teams were pretty evenly matched on the stats sheet, especially in the important metrics like Run Metres, Missed Tackles, Errors and Completion Rate. The difference being that Cronulla were able to capitalise on their opportunities while Canberra didn’t.

The Raiders are allowing an average of almost 1700 Run Metres to their opposition per game which puts them in the bottom 3rd of all teams in the league.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 5 Team List Article.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5 FAQ’s

How to livestream Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5?

You can livestream the Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2026 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders

The top pick in this game is Canberra to win by a 1-12 margin with the Game Total going Under. Fullbacks have a good strike rate against Canberra, take Fletcher Hunt to cross for a try.

Canberra 1-12

Winning Margin

$3.00 - 3 Units

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Under 46.5

Game Total

$1.90 - 2 Units

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F Hunt

Anytime Tryscorer

$3.10 - 1 Unit

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F Hunt

First Tryscorer

$17.00 - 1 Unit

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