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Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 3 Tips - Down to the Wire

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 20 Mar 2026 14:58

Ryan Tucker 20 Mar 2026

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Dragons expected to cover 5.5 points as underdogs.
Both teams struggle with defensive issues; anticipate high-scoring match.
Val Holmes noted as top player due to recent form.
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) on Sunday 22nd March at CommBank Stadium

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction

There is no doubt this game has the opportunity to be one of the closest in Round 3. With a tight matchup predicted, the value is with the Dragons to cover as the 5.5 pt Underdogs.

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Parramatta Eels Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons Team List & Team News
Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

3 of the last 4 games between these teams have finished with margins of 6 pts or less and the Dragons had 12 games last season decided by 6 pts or less. They are masters of tight games, even if they haven’t won that many over the course of time.

Parramatta have had a rollercoaster journey over the first two weeks of the year. Embarrassed by the Storm in Round 1 and then inched past the Broncos last week in a high scoring affair. They have attacking spark but there are big problems on defence and their energy towards the end of the game needs to improve.

38 Missed Tackles against Melbourne and 32 against the Broncos, those kind of numbers are not going to win you games over the course of the season. The Dragons have been just as bad and with the dynamic ball running that both of these teams have, the expectation is that there will be a lot of missed tackles in this game too.

Take the Dragons to cover the 5.5 line as the road Underdog with the Game Total going Over 52.5 pts. Val Holmes is at a great price for a try and given his recent form is the top player prop of the game. Check all NRL Top Bookmakers when placing your tips.

3 of the last 4 head to head matchups have been decided by a converted try or less. St George Illawarra had 12 games last year decided by the same margin.
Both teams rank bottom 6 in the league for Missed Tackles, the Dragons hold an edge in Post Contact Metres.
Val Holmes had 2 Tries and 2 Linebreaks in last week’s game.
The Eels gave up 2 tries to the Broncos right centre last week and 1 to the Storm right centre the week before.

Head to Head

The Dragons won the most recent meeting 34-20 but the 2 game series was split 1-1 last season with the Eels winning in Golden Point in the first matchup. Parramatta have won 6 of the 9 games that have been played since the start of the 2019 season.

3 of the last 5 games have gone Over the Game Total while 5 of the last 9 have finished with margins of 8 pts or less.

Parramatta Eels Form Analysis

Parramatta bounced back from their Round 1 beat up to put 40 points past the Broncos last Thursday night, winning the game 40-32. The Eels completed at 88%, making just 5 Errors in the game.

Isaiah Iongi was electric with 2 Tries, 174 Run Metres and 2 Linebreaks, leading the charge of the backline. The defence was still flimsy, allowing 32 points to their opponent which coincided with 32 missed tackles in the game.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

St George Illawarra put in a monster first half performance against the Storm last week to trail 18-14 at the break. But it all unravelled in the second half with the Dragons defence falling apart and Melbourne running away winners 46-20.

The defensive presence of the Dragons was not good enough, allowing 1718 Run Metres to their opponent as well as 8 Linebreaks. 44 Missed Tackles and then 11 Errors with ball in hand didn’t help their cause in trying to keep scoring pace with their opponent.

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 3 Team List Article.

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to livestream Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3?

You can livestream the Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 3 game check the NRL website or the official Parramatta Eels site.

Verdict

Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons

Dragons +5.5

Line

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