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Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors Round 3 Tips & Prediction - Knights to cover despite injuries
In a thrilling NRL Round 3 matchup, the unbeaten Newcastle Knights are expected to outperform expectations with a +6.5 line against the New Zealand Warriors despite injuries to Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown. Fletcher Sharpe returns, bringing his impressive tryscoring abilities. The Warriors have shown strong form with two decisive wins but face a challenging away game at McDonald Jones Stadium. Key to the Knights' strategy will be their defensive strength, aiming for under 51.5 total points. Look for Fletcher Sharpe to lead the attack, supported by underrated acquisition Sandon Smith.
- Newcastle Knights vs NZ Warriors predictions for Saturday's NRL R3 game
- Knights tipped to cover at home, winning four of last five vs Warriors at McDonald Jones
- Fletcher Sharpe to have a big impact in the absence of Ponga & Brown
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 3.00pm AEDT on Saturday March 21
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors Round 3 Tips & Prediction
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors Round 3 Tips & Prediction
The unbeaten Knights are tipped to cover a +6.5 line when they host the Warriors on Saturday at McDonald Jones Stadium - despite suffering a big blow with injuries to key attacking stars Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown.
However, you could argue Fletcher Sharpe - who returns for this clash from his own injury suffered in Vegas - is possibly more influential to the Knights. Sharpe is a genuine tryscoring machine, scoring 23 in just 27 NRL games so far in his young career, while he's a constant menace with the ball in hand. He was easily the best player on the park before being cut down by injury against the Cowboys in the season opener and I honestly don't think the Knights will lose all that much with his inclusion and Ponga/Brown's absence.
I'm loving the look of the Knights - obviously early days, but they were always pretty decent defensively last year, but Justin Holbrook has added some spark to their attack and they look a solid, well-rounded side now. Sandon Smith has also been an underrated pickup and he's looking forward to linking up with Sharpe in the halves.
“We’ve trained all through the pre-season together as well, me and him [Sharpe]," Smith said after Newcastle's big win over Manly last week.
“So I think that’s next man up (mentality) and that’ll slot in really perfectly and we’re keen to go home and rip into the Wahs (Warriors).”
The Warriors have also started the season in very impressive fashion, dropping 40 points on the Raiders and Roosters. However, this will be their first away game for the season and they've struggled at McDonald Jones Stadium in recent times - only a runaway Leka Halasima try after the siren saw them beat a Knights side that was 100 times worse than this last season.
I'm prepared to put my faith in the Knights to cover in front of a huge crowd at McDonald Jones, while defence will be key and I'm liking the Unders in a big total points line of 51.5. Fletcher Sharpe is one of the best attacking players in the competition and will be dangerous throughout.
Knights vs Warriors Stats & Trends
- Knights have won four of their last five home games vs Warriors
- Warriors have lost two of their last three NRL away games
- Thirteen of the last 14 meetings have seen Under 51.5 points
- Six of the last seven meetings at McDonald Jones have seen Under 51.5 points
- Fletcher Sharpe has scored 23 tries in 27 NRL games & crossed in his only appearance of 2026 vs Cowboys in Vegas
Knights vs Warriors Head To Head
The Warriors have won four of the last five overall, but as mentioned, Newcastle have won four of the last five in the Hunter.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Zealand Warriors | 20–15 | McDonald Jones |
| 2025 | New Zealand Warriors | 26–12 | Apollo Stadium |
| 2024 | Newcastle Knights | 14–8 | McDonald Jones |
| 2024 | New Zealand Warriors | 20–12 | Go Media Stadium |
| 2023 | New Zealand Warriors | 40–10 | Go Media Stadium |
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
It's been a promising start to the season for Newcastle.
After averaging 14 points per game last season, they've dropped 28 and 36 points on the Cowboys and Sea Eagles, with their attack igniting under Justin Holbrook.
Dominic Young scored a double against Manly last week, while Bradman Best and Dane Gagai were amongst the top three for metres gained, running amok on the edges.
Obviously the win was soured by the injuries to Ponga and Brown, with $2.7 million of their salary cap set to be sidelined for the next couple of months.
Newcastle Knights Team News
Ponga and Brown are sidelined, with Fletcher Sharpe returning to partner Sandon Smith in the halves, while Fletcher Hunt slots into fullback after impressing against Manly last week.
Newcastle Knights Team List
1. Fletcher Hunt
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Fletcher Sharpe
7. Sandon Smith
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Trey Mooney
11. Dylan Lucas
12. Jermaine McEwen
13. Tyson Frizell
Interchange
14. Thomas Cant
15. Mathew Croker
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Francis Manuleleua
Reserves
18. Tyson Gamble
19. Harrison Graham
20. Elijah Leaumoana
21. Cody Hopwood
22. James Schiller
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
The Warriors have also gone 2-0 to start the season.
After crushing the Roosters 42-18 in their season opener, the Warriors doubled done with a 40-6 demolition of the Raiders last week.
It was a tight start to the game, but the Warriors ran riot after the break, scoring six second-half tries.
Tanah Boyd has been under pressure to perform, but the halfback has been in basically career-best form to start the year, scoring 14 points in the win over Canberra, while he also scored a try against the Roosters.
New Zealand Warriors Team News
Kurt Capewell is nursing a calf injury and Chanel Harris-Tavita and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad have entered concussion protocols, forcing the Warriors into some changes.
Reserves
Taine Tuaupiki comes in at fullback, while Luke Hanson makes his NRL debut at five-eighth. Marata Niukore returns on the bench after overcoming a calf injury.
New Zealand Warriors Team List
1. Taine Tuaupiki
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Ali Leiataua
4. Adam Pompey
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. Luke Hanson
7. Tanah Boyd
8. James Fisher-Harris
9. Wayde Egan
10. Jackson Ford
11. Leka Halasima
12. Jacob Laban
13. Erin Clark
Interchange
14. Samuel Healey
15. Demitric Vaimauga
16. Tanner Stowers-Smith
17. Marata Niukore
Reserves
18. Morgan Gannon
20. Alofiana Khan-Pereira
21. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
22. Jett Cleary
23. Mitchell Barnett
Verdict
The Knights are tipped to cover a +6.5 line in a game that goes Under 51.5 total points, with Fletcher Sharpe continuing his red-hot tryscoring form.
Knights +6.5
Line
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