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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 3 Tips - Brisbane Still Not There Yet

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 18 Mar 2026 18:08

Ryan Tucker 18 Mar 2026

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Melbourne Storm predicted to defeat Broncos in 2026 Grand Final rematch.
Storm excels in attack; Broncos struggle with discipline, defense.
Betting tip: Take Melbourne -8.5; Game Total Under favored.
Kick off is at 8:00 PM (AEST) on Friday 20th March at AAMI Park

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction

The first of two Grand Final rematches in the schedule this season and Melbourne are tipped to get revenge for losing the trophy last October.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Team List & Team News
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

The Broncos have been hampered by ill-discipline, poor work rate in the middle and flimsy defence over the first two games of the year. There is no doubt they bounce back at some point, we even saw their attack click last week against Parra. But to overcome a rampaging Storm is a bridge too far this week.

Melbourne have proven the doubters wrong over the first two weeks of competition. They are by far and large the best attacking team in the league, piling on points all over the ground against hapless opponents.

It is important to note which teams they have played, Parramatta and the Dragons. Not teams noted for their defensive capabilities. This matchup vs Brisbane will be a tougher test, but the likelihood is that their forwards can continue to create Run Metres, complete their sets and open up space for Harry Grant, Sua Fa’aloga and their counterparts to put points pressure on.

Melbourne are not a defensive powerhouse, Brisbane will score some points but without Adam Reynolds, likely not enough to put this game in any danger.

Take Melbourne on the shortest line of -8.5, we find the the best bookies and odds for all NRL games. Take the Game Total Under 55.5, overs are currently overrepresented. Sua Fa’alogo is almost a lock for anytime tryscorer this week grab him as Last Tryscorer too.

Melbourne had won 12 straight regular season games against Brisbane prior to their Round 26 loss last year.
Overs have hit in 63% of games this season. The average over the past 7 seasons is 50/50.
Melbourne’s opponents average just 14.6 pts per game at AAMI park since the start of 2021 season.
Sua Fa’logo has scored 5 tries for Melbourne so far this season, all in the second half of the games.

Head to Head

Melbourne had dominated this matchup up until last year. 12 straight regular season wins dating back to the 2019 season was broken when the Broncos won 30-14 in the penultimate round when the Storm rested a bunch of stars.

The Broncos then went on to win the Grand Final 26-22.

9 of the last 13 games have gone Under the Game Total while the Storm hold a 10-3 ATS record in the regular season since 2019.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Melbourne Storm continue to do Melbourne Storm things, a 52-4 win in round 1 followed by a 46-20 win last weekend. The pre-season chatter of a fall-away because of player turnover has been squashed.

Harry Grant is staking his claim as the best player in the world right now, leading the Storm from the front with elite running, tryscoring and direction on the park. He was the top pick in 2026 Pre-Season Hooker Rankings.

The Storm lead the league in Points, Completion Rate, Linebreaks and Run Metres while featuring in the top 5 in a host of other metrics.

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

Brisbane had not lost back to back games to start a season since 2021 but were unable to stem the flow of points from Parramatta last weekend, eventually losing 40-32. They have now conceded 66 pts across two games and while the scoring came back last week, the opposition defence was not much chop.

They completed just 75% of their sets v Parra and still allowed their opponent to run for over 1500 metres. 12 errors, 8 penalties and 4 infringements gave their opponent unnecessary chances.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 3 Team List Article.

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to livestream Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3?

You can livestream the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 3 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Take Melbourne on the shortest line of -8.5. Take the Game Total Under 55.5, overs are currently overrepresented. Sua Fa’alogo is almost a lock for anytime tryscorer this week grab him as Last Tryscorer too.

Melbourne -8.5

Line

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