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Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 9 Tips - Fa’alogo to Ignite the Storm

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 29 Apr 2026 14:43

Ryan Tucker 29 Apr 2026

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Storm tipped as value underdogs over the Dolphins for Round 9 2026.
Dolphins' defence and stamina remain questionable; Storm’s stats favour them on the road.
Sua Fa’alogo recommended for anytime/first tryscorer; Storm to score over 24.5 points.
Kick off is at 8:00 PM (AEST) on Friday, 1st May at Suncorp Stadium

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm, Round 9 2026 - Expert Prediction

One of the hardest games of the round to pick with a mountain of questions in the air including whether Melbourne can turn their form around and whether the Dolphins can stay focused for the full 80 minutes.

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm, Round 9 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Dolphins Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Team List & Team News
Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9 FAQ’s

The Dolphins have never been favourites in their 4 starts against the Storm but here we are in the year of 2026 and it’s not even the craziest thing about this matchup.

Looking at what is happening in Melbourne there are key points to why they are losing. They are struggling at getting the ball out of their own end, dead last in average Kick Return Metres, they are 3rd last in Offloads, negating any second phase play to open up the Ruck, and they have the 7th highest rate of Missed Tackles.

These are coachable metrics. We have seen the Storm excel at these things before, albeit with different personnel but it is there somewhere, what is lacking now after a series of heavy losses is the confidence to throw caution to the wind and do something different.

The previous few weeks we have backed the Storm because “they cannot possibly lose another” this week I am backing them because they are in a spot now where they are forced to do something different which makes it difficult for the Dolphins already poor defence to plan effectively.

The predictive model has this one very close but the value is with the travelling Storm as the Underdog. Take the Storm over their Team Total of 24.5 against and Sua Fa’alogo as the anytime and first tryscorer.

The Dolphins have lost 4 of their last 6 games at Suncorp Stadium and have allowed an average of 26 pts to opponents so far this season.
The Storm have covered in 5 of their last 6 road games as the Underdog, winning 4 outright.
Dolphins have allowed a try to their opposition fullback in 3 straight games, 2 of those as first tryscorer.
Sua Fa’alogo has scored in 4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head

The Dolphins won the lone matchup last year at Suncorp 42-22, their first win in 4 attempts over the Storm. The last 3 straight have gone Over the Game Total and the ATS record being split 2-2.

Dolphins Form Analysis

The Dolphins sit 12th on the ladder entering Round 9 having lost 4 straight games with a bye in the middle. What is important to note though is the opponent and how they lost, especially the last two games.

In Round 7 they went down to the Panthers in Golden Point while last week they gave up a 18-14 halftime lead to the Warriors to lose 20-18. What has troubled them this season and was very apparent last weekend, is their ability to play out the full 80 minutes.

The Dolphins have great attacking power and they have solved some of the inefficiencies they had on defence last year. But there is still work to be done.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

What is happening with the Melbourne Storm? 6 straight losses, granted 3 of those by only 4 points, but the other 3 were by 40, 24 and 42 pts last week to the Rabbitohs. It is a stark contrast to the team that allowed just 5 scores of 30+ pts last season over the whole year

Last week against Souths they completed at just 65% with 14 Errors, allowed 2118 Run Metres to their opponent as well as losing the Linebreaks battle 14-1.

Jahrome Hughes looked troubled by a wrist injury in the loss but will miss this week anyway after failing a HIA which deepens the trouble for the embattled Storm.

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 9 Team List Article.

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9 FAQ’s

How to livestream Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9?

You can livestream the Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9?

To buy tickets to the Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 9 game check the NRL website or the official Dolphins site.

Verdict

Dolphins v Melbourne Storm

Melbourne +3.5

Line

$1.95 - 3 Units

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