Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips & Prediction - Phins to pile on the points in Battle of Brisbane

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 06 Aug 2026 09:46

Andrew Hendrie 06 Aug 2026

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Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos predictions for Saturday's NRL R23 game
Broncos extremely vulnerable to a pummelling here with season officially over
Dolphins tipped to cover a -7.5 line, score 29+ points, with Cobbo & Flegler scoring
The game is scheduled to kick off at 5.30pm AEST on Saturday August 8

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips & Prediction

The Dolphins are tipped to snap a three-game losing streak against the embattled Broncos and produce a statement performance as they hunt down a spot in the top four, covering a -7.5 line and eclipsing their 28.5 team total as Selwyn Cobbo looks to add to his 12 NRL tries for the season.

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips & Prediction
Dolphins vs Broncos Stats & Trends
Dolphins vs Broncos Head To Head
Dolphins Form Analysis
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Dolphins vs Broncos Team News

Isaiya Katoa is back from injury and ready to lead the most electric backline in the competition as the Dolphins look to re-establish themselves as serious premiership contenders in the run-in to the finals - and this looms as the perfect opportunity for the Phins to return to some of their best footy.

Brisbane have endured a nightmare season that officially came to an end with last week's 30-6 defeat to the Knights. Michael Maguire's side have stumbled through one of the worst premiership defences in rugby league history and I just can't see how they remain competitive for the remainder of the season when they couldn't win games over the last month with everything on the line.

And the Dolphins are probably the worst team to play if you're lacking motivation and effort in defence, with their blistering attack - that's averaged 36.6 points per game in six straight wins at Suncorp - easily capable of dropping 50 on a disinterested Broncos outfit.

Which makes the relatively small 7.5 line for the Dolphins a standout best bet for this clash, along with the Phins covering their 28.5 team points line. Selwyn Cobbo has to be backed for a try out wide, while there's also some sneaky value with Thomas Flegler, who's scored a few tries lately and will be keen to barge over against his former club.

Dolphins vs Broncos Stats & Trends

Dolphins have won 10 of their last 12 games
Dolphins have covered a -7.5 line in eight of those 10 wins
Dolphins have scored 28+ points in nine of those 10 wins
Broncos have lost 10 of their last 11 games
Broncos have failed to cover a +7.5 line in seven of those 10 defeats
Broncos have lost six straight games at Suncorp
Dolphins have averaged 36.6 points per game during a current six-game winning run at Suncorp
Selwyn Cobbo has scored 10 tries in his last seven NRL games
Thomas Flegler has scored two tries in his last five games & also scored for QLD in Origin

Dolphins vs Broncos Head To Head

The Broncos have won the last three meetings, including a 26-12 victory in Round 4 for one of their six wins this season.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2026	Brisbane Broncos	26–12	Suncorp Stadium
2025	Brisbane Broncos	38–28	Suncorp Stadium
2025	Brisbane Broncos	20–12	Suncorp Stadium
2024	Dolphins	40–6	Suncorp Stadium
2024	Brisbane Broncos	28–14	Suncorp Stadium

Dolphins Form Analysis

The Dolphins surged into premiership contention on the back of their eight-game winning streak between Round 9-17, conquering top four sides like the Warriors and Roosters.

However, Kristian Woolf's side suffered a bit of a blip over the last month, losing by one point to the Knights before a crushing 66-0 defeat to the Sharks.

Those performances co-incided with star halfback Isaiya Katoa's injury, but he's back on deck and the Phins have bounced back with consecutive victories over the Cowboys (36-16) and Dragons (28-22).

The Dolphins were never really in any danger against the Dragons, with Cobbo scoring another double.

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

Absolute nightmare season for the Broncos.

The early injury to Reece Walsh put them on the back foot and they've never really recovered, winning just six games.

Currently sitting in 15th spot, the Broncos are lucky they're not going to pick up the spoon courtesy of the Dragons' shocking start to the year and Tigers' shambolic collapse.

Brisbane have lost 10 of their last 11 games coming into this one - to be fair, they've put up a fight over the last month, including beating Penrith, but it's just not happening and their season was officially put to bed with last week's 30-6 defeat at home to the Knights.

Dolphins vs Broncos Team News

Only one change for the Dolphins as Sebastian Su'a comes onto the bench in place of Ray Stone.

Thomas Duffy replaces Adam Reynolds at halfback for the Broncos, while Jack Gosiewski returns from a rib injury on the bench.

Dolphins	Position	Broncos
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	1. Reece Walsh
2. Jamayne Isaako	Winger	2. Josiah Karapani
3. Jack Bostock	Centre	3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth	Centre	4. Deine Mariner
5. Selwyn Cobbo	Winger	5. Grant Anderson
6. Kodi Nikorima	Five-Eighth	6. Ezra Mam
7. Isaiya Katoa	Halfback	7. Thomas Duffy
8. Thomas Flegler	Prop	8. Xavier Willison
9. Jeremy Marshall-King	Hooker	9. Billy Walters
10. Francis Molo	Prop	10. Payne Haas
11. Connelly Lemuelu	Second Row	11. Jaiyden Hunt
12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki	Second Row	12. Jordan Riki
13. Morgan Knowles	Lock	13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Kurt Donoghoe	Interchange	14. Ben Hunt
15. Max Plath	Interchange	15. Va'a Semu
16. Tom Gilbert	Interchange	16. Ben Talty
17. Felise Kaufusi	Interchange	17. Gehamat Shibasaki
18. Sebastian Su'a	Interchange	18. Jack Gosiewski
19. Bradley Schneider	Interchange	19. Hayze Perham