Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips & Prediction - Phins to pile on the points in Battle of Brisbane
The Dolphins are strongly favored to end a three-game losing streak against the struggling Brisbane Broncos in NRL Round 23, with a recommendation to back them at the -7.5 line and exceed 28.5 team points. Key players include Selwyn Cobbo, tipped for another try, and Thomas Flegler. The Dolphins have been in strong attacking form, especially at Suncorp Stadium, while Brisbane has endured a disappointing season with 10 losses from their last 11 games. Only minor team changes are expected for both sides.
- Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos predictions for Saturday's NRL R23 game
- Broncos extremely vulnerable to a pummelling here with season officially over
- Dolphins tipped to cover a -7.5 line, score 29+ points, with Cobbo & Flegler scoring
- The game is scheduled to kick off at 5.30pm AEST on Saturday August 8
Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 23 Tips & Prediction
The Dolphins are tipped to snap a three-game losing streak against the embattled Broncos and produce a statement performance as they hunt down a spot in the top four, covering a -7.5 line and eclipsing their 28.5 team total as Selwyn Cobbo looks to add to his 12 NRL tries for the season.
Isaiya Katoa is back from injury and ready to lead the most electric backline in the competition as the Dolphins look to re-establish themselves as serious premiership contenders in the run-in to the finals - and this looms as the perfect opportunity for the Phins to return to some of their best footy.
Brisbane have endured a nightmare season that officially came to an end with last week's 30-6 defeat to the Knights. Michael Maguire's side have stumbled through one of the worst premiership defences in rugby league history and I just can't see how they remain competitive for the remainder of the season when they couldn't win games over the last month with everything on the line.
And the Dolphins are probably the worst team to play if you're lacking motivation and effort in defence, with their blistering attack - that's averaged 36.6 points per game in six straight wins at Suncorp - easily capable of dropping 50 on a disinterested Broncos outfit.
Which makes the relatively small 7.5 line for the Dolphins a standout best bet for this clash, along with the Phins covering their 28.5 team points line. Selwyn Cobbo has to be backed for a try out wide, while there's also some sneaky value with Thomas Flegler, who's scored a few tries lately and will be keen to barge over against his former club.
Dolphins vs Broncos Stats & Trends
- Dolphins have won 10 of their last 12 games
- Dolphins have covered a -7.5 line in eight of those 10 wins
- Dolphins have scored 28+ points in nine of those 10 wins
- Broncos have lost 10 of their last 11 games
- Broncos have failed to cover a +7.5 line in seven of those 10 defeats
- Broncos have lost six straight games at Suncorp
- Dolphins have averaged 36.6 points per game during a current six-game winning run at Suncorp
- Selwyn Cobbo has scored 10 tries in his last seven NRL games
- Thomas Flegler has scored two tries in his last five games & also scored for QLD in Origin
Dolphins vs Broncos Head To Head
The Broncos have won the last three meetings, including a 26-12 victory in Round 4 for one of their six wins this season.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Brisbane Broncos | 26–12 | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025 | Brisbane Broncos | 38–28 | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025 | Brisbane Broncos | 20–12 | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024 | Dolphins | 40–6 | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024 | Brisbane Broncos | 28–14 | Suncorp Stadium |
Dolphins Form Analysis
The Dolphins surged into premiership contention on the back of their eight-game winning streak between Round 9-17, conquering top four sides like the Warriors and Roosters.
However, Kristian Woolf's side suffered a bit of a blip over the last month, losing by one point to the Knights before a crushing 66-0 defeat to the Sharks.
Those performances co-incided with star halfback Isaiya Katoa's injury, but he's back on deck and the Phins have bounced back with consecutive victories over the Cowboys (36-16) and Dragons (28-22).
The Dolphins were never really in any danger against the Dragons, with Cobbo scoring another double.
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Absolute nightmare season for the Broncos.
The early injury to Reece Walsh put them on the back foot and they've never really recovered, winning just six games.
Currently sitting in 15th spot, the Broncos are lucky they're not going to pick up the spoon courtesy of the Dragons' shocking start to the year and Tigers' shambolic collapse.
Brisbane have lost 10 of their last 11 games coming into this one - to be fair, they've put up a fight over the last month, including beating Penrith, but it's just not happening and their season was officially put to bed with last week's 30-6 defeat at home to the Knights.
Dolphins vs Broncos Team News
Only one change for the Dolphins as Sebastian Su'a comes onto the bench in place of Ray Stone.
Thomas Duffy replaces Adam Reynolds at halfback for the Broncos, while Jack Gosiewski returns from a rib injury on the bench.
| Dolphins | Position | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Fullback | 1. Reece Walsh |
| 2. Jamayne Isaako | Winger | 2. Josiah Karapani |
| 3. Jack Bostock | Centre | 3. Kotoni Staggs |
| 4. Herbie Farnworth | Centre | 4. Deine Mariner |
| 5. Selwyn Cobbo | Winger | 5. Grant Anderson |
| 6. Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 6. Ezra Mam |
| 7. Isaiya Katoa | Halfback | 7. Thomas Duffy |
| 8. Thomas Flegler | Prop | 8. Xavier Willison |
| 9. Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 9. Billy Walters |
| 10. Francis Molo | Prop | 10. Payne Haas |
| 11. Connelly Lemuelu | Second Row | 11. Jaiyden Hunt |
| 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 12. Jordan Riki |
| 13. Morgan Knowles | Lock | 13. Patrick Carrigan |
| 14. Kurt Donoghoe | Interchange | 14. Ben Hunt |
| 15. Max Plath | Interchange | 15. Va'a Semu |
| 16. Tom Gilbert | Interchange | 16. Ben Talty |
| 17. Felise Kaufusi | Interchange | 17. Gehamat Shibasaki |
| 18. Sebastian Su'a | Interchange | 18. Jack Gosiewski |
| 19. Bradley Schneider | Interchange | 19. Hayze Perham |
Verdict
The Dolphins are backed for a big win over the Broncos, with Cobbo scoring another try & Flegler offering some value.
Dolphins -7.5
Line
$1.90 - 3 Units
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Dolphins Over 28.5
Total Team Points
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Selwyn Cobbo
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