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Jesse's AFL Finals Tips 2026: Week 1 Predictions for Every Match

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026 13:51

Jeremy Darke 1 hour ago

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Jesse tips Fremantle, Brisbane, Geelong, & Adelaide to win in Week 1.
Home ground and player returns seen as decisive factors.
Momentum and finals experience will shape crucial match outcomes.

True Footy's Just the Tips AFL Finals Week 1 (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Jesse's AFL Finals Tips 2026: Week 1 Predictions for Every Match

The wildcard round is done and the 2026 AFL finals series is about to step up another level, with all eight remaining teams now in action.

Jesse's AFL Finals Tips 2026: Week 1 Predictions for Every Match
Fremantle vs Hawthorn Prediction
Sydney vs Brisbane Prediction
Geelong vs Carlton Prediction
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Fremantle and Sydney have home qualifying finals, Geelong and Adelaide enter September after a week off, while Carlton and the Western Bulldogs carry momentum through from their wildcard victories. With preliminary final paths and straight-sets exits now on the line, there is no room for error.

Here are Jesse's AFL Finals Week 1 tips and predictions for all four matches.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn Prediction

Fremantle begins its premiership campaign at Optus Stadium against a Hawthorn side with slightly more recent finals experience.

The Hawks made a preliminary final last season and should be better prepared for the hostile Perth atmosphere after experiencing it earlier this year. Fremantle, however, has shown enormous resilience throughout the season and has already beaten Hawthorn at this venue. With Murphy Reid, Sam Switkowski and potentially several others returning, the Dockers should also be strengthened at the right time.

Jesse expects Hawthorn to challenge early before Fremantle settles into the contest and takes control.

Jesse's Tip: Fremantle by 17 points

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Sydney vs Brisbane Prediction

Sydney enters the finals under significantly different circumstances after the suspensions to Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, Riley Bice and James Jordon.

The Swans responded brilliantly against North Melbourne despite those issues hanging over the club, but reproducing that emotional intensity after a week off is another challenge entirely. Brisbane hasn't always produced its best football outside knockout situations, but the back-to-back premiers still possess significantly more proven quality heading into September.

With a home preliminary final potentially awaiting the winner, Jesse expects Brisbane to make the most of the opportunity.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 24 points

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Geelong vs Carlton Prediction

Carlton's remarkable resurgence continues after surviving its wildcard final, but Geelong presents an entirely different September challenge.

The Blues have enjoyed an excellent recent record against the Cats, particularly at the MCG, and have already beaten them this season. Geelong, however, has developed a habit of peaking at exactly the right time. Even while dealing with significant injuries during the home-and-away season, the Cats found ways to improve and enter the finals looking increasingly dangerous.

Carlton can make this competitive, but Jesse expects Geelong's finals experience and preparation to prove decisive.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong Cats Win

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Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

The head-to-head record makes this elimination final particularly intriguing.

The Bulldogs won a thriller in Adelaide earlier this season before the Crows responded by dismantling them at Marvel Stadium. The Dogs also enter this game with momentum after an impressive wildcard victory built around their contested work and ground-ball pressure.

Adelaide has the advantage of a week off, home ground and another year of finals experience behind this developing group. The biggest issue for the Bulldogs could be matching Adelaide's combination of tall and small forwards, particularly if their defence becomes overwhelmed by the Crows' forward-half pressure.

Jesse believes Adelaide can not only win, but potentially do it comfortably.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide Crows Win