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Carlton vs Hawthorn Tips - Can the Blues bounce back after disappointing Round 1 display?

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 20 Mar 2025 05:56

Adam Cusworth 20 Mar 2025

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Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 2 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEDT)
Can the Blues bounce back after embarrassing loss in Round 1
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Ryan delivers the top tips for the Carlton vs Hawthorn matchup

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 2 2025 - Expert Prediction

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 2 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2 FAQ’s

Carlton vs Hawthorn expert predictions and preview for Thursday's AFL game. Can the Blues bounce back after embarrassing loss in Round 1 to Richmond?

Hawthorn are every chance to cover the line in the Round 2 fixture , extending Carlton’s miserable start to the season.

The Hawks have opened up with two solid wins, including a 20-point margin over Sydney in the opener before handing Essendon a 26-point defeat last weekend.

Sam Mitchell’s side opened up the ground with their slick ball movement in Friday night footy, leading to easy shots within range and high conversion of 17.9.

A night earlier, Carlton were sloppy in their Round 1 hitout, squandering a 41-point lead to go down by 13 to Richmond. The Blues started that game as hot favourites but could not deliver. Were they just a bit rusty in their first match or are there bigger problems.

I suggest the latter, particularly if you take a deep dive at their back half of 2024. Injuries have been an excuse and they regain Charlie Curnow for the Thursday night clash but the Hawks have the recruits in Tom Barrass and Josh Battle to tighten up their backline.

Wet and windy conditions are forecast for the G and this might be the only thing that holds the Hawks back from a bigger margin.

Hawthorn’s past eight wins have been by an average margin of 59.5 points
They include a 74-point victory the last time these two sides met
Jai Newcombe has averaged just under 28 disposals in his last 10 matches
Hawthorn have averaged just under 17 goals per game in their past 10 matches.

Head to Head

Carlton have won three of the past four between the two sides but the Hawks smashed the Blues big time in 2024, running out 74 point winners in the Round 22 clash. A stack of Hawks picked up 25+ disposals, including Dylan Moore (29), James Sicily (30) and Massimo D’Ambrosio (31).

Four of the past six games between the two sides have been decided by less than 40 points. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have been standout players for Carlton, averaging 27 disposals apiece in their last four matches against the brown and gold.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-1	0-1	0-1

Since Round 17 of 2024, Carlton have won just two of 10 matches. All but one of those (Hawthorn Round 22, 2024) were in the 1-39 point range.

Last week, they squandered a 41 point lead to go down to Richmond by 13 points in a game that saw them start as red-hot favourites. Inaccuracy in front of goal proved costly and they had 24 scoring shots to 17.

The Blues were hit hard by injuries late last year and have a lenghty list of outs. Curnow’s possible inclusion will be key to helping Carlton’s scoring. They rank 12th in the competition for goals scored in the past 10 matches. In their past seven matches they have averaged just 10 goals per game.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
0-1	0-1	0-1	0-0

Carlton Blues Team News

The Blues have a lengthy injury list but Charlie Curnow (knee) is set to return. Jack Carroll (ankle), who had been in line for an AFL debut after a strong summer, is now uncertain to play due to an injury in a VFL practice match. Jordan Boyd could be in contention following last week's poor loss to the Tigers. Father-son draftee Ben Camporeale (ankle) will make his season debut, likely in the VFL on Friday night.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: L.Cowan, J.Weitering, O.Hollands

HB: A.Saad, M.McGovern, J.Silvagni

C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, L.Camporeale

HF: S.Docherty, H.McKay, B.Kemp

F: L.Fogarty, C.Curnow, M.Cottrell

FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, G.Hewett

I/C: C.Lord, S.Walsh, N.Haynes, Z.Williams, J.Motlop

EMG: L.Young, A.Moir, F.Evans

IN: C.Curnow

OUT: F.Evans (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-0	2-0	2-0

Hawthorn have been the form side of the competition since turning things around in the middle of 2024. They have now won 14 of their past 17 matches. Seven of those wins have been by 39.5+, including last year’s match up against the Blues.

Their two victories this season have been by 20 and 26 point margins.

The Hawks top the competition for goals scored in their past 10 matches, going at just under a very healthy 17 goals per game. Hawthorn also rank highly for disposals (2nd). Jai Newcombe has been the standout with just under 28 disposals per game in that period.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
2-0	2-0	2-0	0-0

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Jack Scrimshaw is sidelined with a concussion, a broken nose, and a suspension after the Essendon match and will miss. Changkuoth Jiath, who has played two VFL practice games, could be considered for a role in defense. James Worpel remains at least two weeks away from returning. Jack Gunston and Luke Breust were the other emergencies in round one. Jai Serong may be considered to replace Scrimshaw, while Henry Hustwaite is another in contention.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: T.Barrass, B.Hardwick, J.Sicily - C

HB: C.Jiath, J.Impey, M.D’Ambrosio

C: K.Amon, J.Ward, J.Battle

HF: F.Maginness, N.Watson, C.Mackenzie

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Chol, J.Newcombe

FOLL: L.Meek, W.Day, D.Moore

I/C: J.Weddle, H.Morrison, C.Nash, C.Macdonald, J.Gunston

EMG: S.Frost, L.Breust, H.Hustwaite

IN: C.Jiath, J.Gunston

OUT: S.Frost (Omitted), J.Scrimshaw (Injured)

Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 2 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

Carlton v Hawthorn

Verdict- Hawthorn to cover the line with Jai Newcombe to find plenty of the footy

Hawthorn -13.5

Handicap +13.5

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