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Brownlow Medal Betting Tips & Value Predictions - Top 5, Club Leaders & Best Exotic Bets
The 2025 Brownlow Medal race is wide open, with favourites like Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith, and Jordan Dawson leading the pack. The article highlights value bets beyond outright winners, focusing on exotic markets such as top five finishes and most votes by rounds. Caleb Serong stands out for top five, Marcus Bontempelli is tipped for most votes in late rounds, and Lachie Neale is the value pick for Brisbane’s top vote-getter. The Boxed Top 4 bet combining Smith, Serong, Rowell, and Daicos offers strong upside for punters seeking value.
- Daicos, Smith, Dawson, Anderson & Rowell are leading Brownlow Medal contenders.
- Best value lies in exotic bets: Serong (Top 5), Bontempelli (most votes R17–24), Neale (Brisbane club votes), Boxed Top 4 option.
- Serong’s stats, Bontempelli’s strong finishes, Neale’s vote magnet ability, and a boxed top 4 bet provide top exotic betting opportunities.
Who will join Patrick Cripps as a Brownlow Medal winner? (Getty Images)
- Brownlow Medal Complete Guide & Betting Tips
- Brownlow Medal Leading Contenders
- Brownlow Medal Top 5 Prediction – Caleb Serong
- Brownlow Medal Most Votes Round 17-24 – Marcus Bontempelli
- Brownlow Medal Value Bet – Lachie Neale (Brisbane Most Club Votes)
- Brownlow Boxed Pick Top 4 – Smith / Serong / Rowell / Daicos
Brownlow Medal Complete Guide & Betting Tips
The 2025 Brownlow Medal vote is wide open and there is plenty of value betting options available - and not just in the outright winner markets.
Outside of the favourites and major contenders in the Brownlow betting markets, we focus on exotic angles for top five, club leaders and most votes in rounds options.
Here is a guide to the major contenders, as well as our top four plays for the big night. Also get our two value Brownlow winner bets.
Brownlow Medal Leading Contenders
Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith, Jordan Dawson, Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell dominate the betting and are all under the $10 in most markets before a jump to $51 for the likes of Caleb Serong.
Daicos will be hard to topple after polling 38 votes last season, while Smith ranks #1 in both coaches votes and disposals across the league.
Adelaide’s captain Jordan Dawson brings plenty of polish, while it is hard to split Anderson and Rowell.
Exotic bet options bring plenty of outsiders into play for a top five finish, most club votes as well as pick fours.
Brownlow Medal Top 5 Prediction – Caleb Serong
Serong’s numbers scream Brownlow votes: #2 in contested possessions, #1 in centre clearances, #4 in first possessions and ground ball gets.
He’s Fremantle’s midfield barometer, and while his teammate, Andrew Brayshaw has had his moments, Serong’s inside craft and ability to control stoppages should see him pull clear. Around 25 votes makes him a live top-five chance.
Caleb SerongTop 5 FinishBET HERE
18+. T&Cs apply.
Brownlow Medal Most Votes Round 17-24 – Marcus Bontempelli
Few finish seasons like Bont. His reputation as a strong closer is well-earned, often storming home in the back half of the year.
His dual midfield-forward impact, scoreboard influence and the Bulldogs’ late-season surge create perfect conditions for 2s and 3s.
While unlikely to win overall, he looms as a top 10 lock and a key player for exotic bets like “most votes R17–24”.
Marcus BontempelliMost Votes Round 17-23BET HERE
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Brownlow Medal Value Bet – Lachie Neale (Brisbane Most Club Votes)
Neale is the forgotten man of the market but remains one of the AFL’s elite vote-getters. Already a Brownlow winner and multiple runner-up, he continues to bank 30+ disposal, 10+ contested games.
Sitting in the 17–23 vote range, and with Brisbane’s strong season keeping him front of mind for umpires, he remains a genuine chance to outpoll Hugh McCluggage despite the market disparity.
Neale has long been a proven vote magnet, already a Brownlow winner and multiple runner-up, while McCluggage, for all his polish and class, has historically struggled to convert standout games into votes.
Neale’s contested work gives him the edge, consistently ranking high for first possessions, clearances and contested possessions - the stats umpires tend to reward most heavily.
In Brisbane’s biggest wins, Neale is the one racking up 30+ disposals with double-digit contested numbers, performances that catch the umpire’s eye far more than McCluggage’s outside spread.
Lachie NealeMost Brisbane Lions VotesBET HERE
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Brownlow Boxed Pick Top 4 – Smith / Serong / Rowell / Daicos
For punters chasing value, the boxed top 4 option is a juicy play at $51 with Betr. Bailey Smith brings elite coaches’ votes and disposal numbers, while Caleb Serong owns the contested and clearance stats that historically decide Brownlows.
Matt Rowell has surged into contention with his grunt game - ranking top three in contested possessions and centre clearances - while Nick Daicos remains the proven vote magnet after his 38-vote season in 2024.
Together, this quartet combines inside dominance, outside polish, and proven umpire appeal, making the boxed option a live exotic with serious upside.
Smith / Serong / Rowell / DaicosBoxed Top 4BET HERE
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Verdict
Our top four Brownlow Medal exotic tips.
Caleb Serong
Top 5
$3.00 - 10 Units
Pandabet
It's Black & White
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Marcus Bontempelli
Most Votes Round 17 to 24
$2.50 - 15 Units
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Lachie Neale
Brisbane Most Team Votes
$11.00 - 2 Units
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Smith/Daicos/Serong/Ro
Box Pick Top 4
$51.00 - 1 Unit
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