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2025 AFL Brownlow Medal Tips & Predictions - Best 2 bets to land the Brownlow
The 2025 AFL Brownlow Medal race is heating up, with Bailey Smith of Geelong tipped as the leading contender due to his outstanding form and high disposal count, benefiting from a dominant season for the Cats. Nick Daicos and Jordan Dawson are considered challengers but face obstacles such as team competition and fewer standout performances. Marcus Bontempelli, despite missing early games, is identified as an excellent value bet thanks to his proven history as a top vote-getter, potentially shaking up the top five.
- Bailey Smith is the top pick for the 2025 Brownlow Medal after a stellar season.
- Nick Daicos and Jordan Dawson are strong contenders but have key disadvantages
- Marcus Bontempelli is a high-value outsider, capable of a surprise top finish
2025 AFL Brownlow Medal Tips & Predictions
2025 AFL Brownlow Medal Preview
The Brownlow Medal 2025 edition is shaping as a classic with a number of leading contenders in the frame for AFL's big award on September 22.
Collingwood’s Nick Daicos, Geelong’s Bailey Smith and Adelaide’s inspirational skipper Jordan Dawson are the three key names.
Other main hopes include Gold Coast captain Noah Anderson, his teammate Matt Rowell, GWS Giants' Tom Green and Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage, while St Kilda’s Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has finished with a flourish.
Below are the best two bets ahead of the big vote.
Brownlow Medal - Best Bet
Bailey Smith looms as the standout bet for the 2025 Brownlow Medal. The Geelong midfielder has been the Cats’ prime mover all season, averaging just under 32 disposals per game – the highest in the competition.
With Geelong winning 17 of their 23 matches, Smith has been front and centre in their dominance, collecting votes in both tight contests and percentage-boosting wins.
Crucially, he faces limited competition for votes in the Cats’ midfield, with Jeremy Cameron’s big goal hauls up forward unlikely to consistently take the umpires’ attention away from Smith’s ball-winning heroics.
Smith edges out his two major rivals, Nick Daicos and Jordan Dawson, because of the way his season has been framed. While Daicos opened the year in blistering form, Collingwood’s stumbles in the back half of the season may see his vote tally stall at the wrong time.
Dawson has led a resurgent Adelaide side, but his disposal numbers don’t quite reach the same heights as Smith or Daicos, and Adelaide’s midfield spread may cost him a vote or two.
Smith, by contrast, has put together explosive patches - including multiple 35+ disposal games - and finished the season with momentum. That combination of dominance and visibility makes him the most appealing selection.
Bailey SmithBrownlow Medal 2025 WinnerBET HERE
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Brownlow Medal - Best Value
The $101 for Marcus Bontempelli is probably justified, given that he missed the first five matches of the season with a calf injury.
But the Bulldogs’ skipper has always been a strong poller and will be coming home like a steam train. His blend of size, skill, and presence ensures he remains the club’s most eye-catching contributor.
The Bulldogs’ big wins throughout 2025 create the perfect stage for Bontempelli to attract maximum votes, particularly in games where his contested dominance and scoreboard impact have shone through.
His Brownlow history also speaks volumes - 29 votes in 2023 and 19 last year when his teammate Adam Treloar picked up 26.
Bontempelli’s proven ability to command three votes in multiple matches makes him a dangerous outsider at long odds. In a medal that often produces a surprise name in the top five he is the type of player who could defy expectations.
Marcus BontempelliBrownlow Medal 2025 WinnerBET HERE
The dabble.com.au referral code is BETSAU. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Verdict
Bailey Smith is backed to edge out Nick Daicos and Jordan Dawson in a thriller. Marcus Bontempelli is excellent value as a roughie.
Bailey Smith
Brownlow Medal Winner
$5.00 - 10 Units
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Marcus Bontempelli
Brownlow Medal Winner
$101.00 - 1 Unit
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