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Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL Tips - Cats problems away from home still very real

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 28 Mar 2025 10:15

Ryan Tucker 28 Mar 2025

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Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 3 AFL game
The game will be played at Gabba, with the bounce at 7:50 PM (AEST)
Brisbane Lions expected to win against Geelong Cats in Round 3 of AFL 2025.
Key players like Charlie Cameron returning, enhancing Lions' forward options.
Geelong to improve defense, but Lions predicted to control midfield and secure win by 1-39 points.

Jez's tips and predictions for the Brisbane vs Geelong clash.

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Lions will win this matchup which is the postponed game from Opening Round.

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s

Geelong were awful in their game last weekend against St Kilda away from home and will likely bounce back to some effect against the defending premiers. Their defensive structures were in tatters throughout the first half with their opponent getting miles of space out the back opening up the goals for scoring opportunities.

If those opportunities present themselves for the Lions it could end up being a hiding, but my expectation is a quality team like Geelong don’t allow those mistakes two weeks in a row. They will tighten up their defensive play possibly at the expense of their push forward.

For Brisbane, they are expected to get Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann back on deck which will allow them to have better options up front around the contests and to avoid intercept marks which Geelong like to do.

This game will likely be won through the middle with both teams good at converting chances when they get them. Brisbane will win the clearance battle and control the midfield which will present them with more scoring chances.

Take the Lions to win by 1-39 and Game Total Under as is the trend and because of the expected defensive pressure. Lachie Neale had big weekend last week and performed well in the two matches against Geelong last season, get him for 30+ here.

3 of the last 4 Brisbane wins against Geelong have been by 1-39.
Geelong went 3-5 on the road to finish their season in 2024 and are 0-1 so far this year.
The Game Total is 7-3 to the Under in the last 10 matchups.
Lachie Neale had 31 and 28 in his two games against Geelong last season and is coming off 35 disposals last weekend.

Head to Head

Geelong hold the better head to head record over Brisbane since the start of the 2019 season going 4-3 in the regular season and 2-1 in Finals games.

7 of the last 10 games have gone Under the Game Total while the winning margin has been 1-39 in 7 of 10 also.

Brisbane have won 3 of the last 5 vs Geelong at the Gabba.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-0	0-2	0-2

Brisbane are 2-0 to start the season but it has not come easy for the defending premiers having to come from behind in both outings to secure the victories.

A 4 point win in the Grand Final rematch against the Swans in round 1 was backed up by a 19 point win at home over the Eagles last weekend, after being 31 points in the hole during the first half.

Lachie Neale was at his best in the middle picking up 35 touches, 8 clearances and 1 goal in the game helped out by Dayne Zorko who had 28 influencing the momentum from the back.

The Lions had 60 entries to their forward 50 compared to just 48 for the Eagles with their disposal efficiency also high at 72.7% leading to their big momentum swing late in the game to secure victory.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
0-2	0-2	2-0	0-0

Brisbane Lions Team News

The team is hopeful Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann will pass fitness tests making them available to play this weekend. Tom Doedee is 1-2 weeks away and Brandon Starcevich will have to complete concussion protocols following a knock at the weekend.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, Z.Bailey, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, H.McCluggage

F: C.Rayner, S.Day, L.Morris

FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale - C

I/C: K.Lohmann, C.Ah Chee, W.Ashcroft, L.Ashcroft, B.Reville

EMG: D.Gardiner, W.McLachlan, D.Fort

In: C.Cameron, K.Lohmann

Out: C.McKenna (Omitted), W.McLachlan (Omitted)

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-1	1-1	2-0

After belting the Dockers by 78 points at GMHBA stadium in round 1 there were calls prior to last weekend’s game against St Kilda to have ambulances on standby for the bloodbath that was expected to ensue.

But Geelong failed to live up to expectation once again losing the game 98-91 allowing the Saints to kick 10 goals in the first half with immense scoreboard pressure. The Saints averaged just 76 points last season and scored only 72 against the Crows the week before with Geelong giving them an open passage to goal early in the game.

The most glaring problem for the Cats was how much space the Saints were getting over the back pointing to poor preparation and bad decision making all through the matchup. They were outdone in almost every measurable statistic on the day with 8 Saints players all getting more disposals than the top Cat in Lawson Humphries who finished with 22.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-1	2-0	0-1	1-0

Geelong Cats Team News

Tom Stewart was subbed off with a knee injury last weekend but looks like he might be right to go against the Lions. Bailey Smith was a late withdrawal with a calf issue and will be tested along with Jack Martin in the lead up to the weekend.

There are 14 players currently on the Cats injury list.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: C.O’Sullivan, J.Henry, M.Blicavs

HB: Z.Guthrie, T.Stewart, O.Mullin

C: B.Smith, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: B.Close, G.Miers, T.Stengle

F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, O.Henry

FOLL: S.De Koning, T.Atkins, P.Dangerfield - C

I/C: L.Humphries, M.Knevitt, J.Clark, J.Bowes, T.Clohesy

EMG: M.O’Connor, M.Duncan, O.Wiltshire

In: B.Smith

Out: M.O’Connor (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 3 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Brisbane v Geelong

Brisbane 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.00 - 3 Units

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Under 153.5

Game Total

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