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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Tips & Prediction - Volk set to retain at UFC 325

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Last updated: Sat 31 Jan 2026 23:23

In the much-anticipated rematch, Alexander Volkanovski is heavily favored to defend his UFC featherweight title against Diego Lopes. Volkanovski's precision, pressure, and stamina are the defining strategies that have placed him strategically to dominate the bout over five rounds, aiming for a points victory similar to their first encounter. While Lopes poses a significant threat with his finishing power, Volkanovski's consistent performance and adaptability make him the predicted winner. Both fighters have shown patterns that suggest Volkanovski's control-oriented game plan will likely prevail again.

Bets.com.au Staff 31 Jan 2026
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  • Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 predictions for Sunday's fight in Sydney
  • First encounter saw Volkanovski win by unanimous decision; expect similar outcome
  • Volk favored to defend title on points due to precision and control
  • The fight is scheduled to begin around 2.20pm AEDT on Sunday February 1
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Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski (Photo by Getty Images)


Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Tips & Prediction


Alexander Volkanovski enters the rematch with Diego Lopes in Sydney on Sunday as a strong favourite to defend the UFC featherweight title on points and the numbers suggest the champion is well placed to control the fight across five rounds once again.

While Lopes brings danger early and late with his finishing ability, Volkanovski’s composure, efficiency, and round-by-round consistency give him a clear path to another decision victory.
Volkanovski’s first encounter with Lopes in April 2025 followed a familiar script: calculated pressure, superior shot selection, and sustained output over 25 minutes. Although Lopes showed flashes of threat, Volkanovski dictated the tempo and consistently won the exchanges that matter on the scorecards.

That pattern aligns neatly with both fighters’ recent trends.

Key Betting Numbers

  • Volkanovski defeated Lopes by unanimous decision in their first meeting
  • Six of Volkanovski’s last eight wins have come via decision
  • Five of Lopes’ seven career losses have gone to the judges

When Volkanovski wins at featherweight, it is increasingly through control rather than chaos.

Volkanovski vs Lopes - Last 5 Fights

Alexander Volkanovski

DateOpponentResultMethodRoundTimeEvent
13 Apr 2025Diego LopesWinDecision (Unanimous)55:00UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
18 Feb 2024Ilia TopuriaLossKO/TKO23:32UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
22 Oct 2023Islam MakhachevLossKO/TKO13:06UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
9 Jul 2023Yair RodriguezWinKO/TKO34:19UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
12 Feb 2023Islam MakhachevLossDecision (Unanimous)55:00UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

Diego Lopes

DateOpponentResultMethodRoundTimeEvent
14 Sep 2025Jean SilvaWinKO/TKO24:48Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
13 Apr 2025Alexander VolkanovskiLossDecision (Unanimous)55:00UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
15 Sep 2024Brian OrtegaWinDecision (Unanimous)35:00UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
30 Jun 2024Dan IgeWinDecision (Unanimous)35:00UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2
14 Apr 2024Sodiq YusuffWinKO/TKO11:29UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

Alexander Volkanovski Form Analysis

Now 37, Volkanovski remains one of the most accomplished featherweights in UFC history. A two-time champion with a 27-4 professional record, he has consistently proven capable of neutralising elite challengers over long fights.

After arriving in the UFC in 2016, Volkanovski rose quickly, punctuating his ascent with a knockout of Chad Mendes and a statement win over Jose Aldo. His rivalry with Max Holloway defined an era, as Volkanovski outpointed the Hawaiian legend three times to establish dominance in the division.

Title defences against Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung further underlined his adaptability, blending elite defence with relentless pace.

Although lightweight title attempts against Islam Makhachev ultimately fell short, Volkanovski rebounded to reclaim featherweight gold after losing it briefly to Ilia Topuria. His decision win over Lopes to capture the vacant belt reaffirmed that, at 145 pounds, his fundamentals remain world-class.

Diego Lopes Form Analysis

Lopes should not be dismissed. The Brazilian has carved out a reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers, owning a 27-7 record with 23 stoppage wins.

After early setbacks in his UFC career, Lopes surged into contention with a five-fight winning streak that included submissions and knockouts, along with composed decision wins over Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. That run earned him a title opportunity, even if he came up short against Volkanovski.

Importantly, Lopes responded well to that setback, returning later in the year with a decisive knockout of Jean Silva. His resilience and finishing instincts ensure he remains a threat, particularly if the fight becomes chaotic.

Verdict

Lopes has the tools to test Volkanovski, but over five rounds the champion’s discipline, defence, and fight IQ remain decisive advantages.

Unless Lopes can force extended scrambles or land something decisive early, Volkanovski is likely to manage distance, pick his moments, and steadily accumulate rounds.

Best Bet1: Volkanovski Fight Winner $1.66 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Volk On Points Method Of Victory $2.45 at dabble - 2 Units
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Volk On Points
Method Of Victory
$2.45 - 2 Units
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

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