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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Tips & Prediction - Volk set to retain at UFC 325
In the much-anticipated rematch, Alexander Volkanovski is heavily favored to defend his UFC featherweight title against Diego Lopes. Volkanovski's precision, pressure, and stamina are the defining strategies that have placed him strategically to dominate the bout over five rounds, aiming for a points victory similar to their first encounter. While Lopes poses a significant threat with his finishing power, Volkanovski's consistent performance and adaptability make him the predicted winner. Both fighters have shown patterns that suggest Volkanovski's control-oriented game plan will likely prevail again.
- Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 predictions for Sunday's fight in Sydney
- First encounter saw Volkanovski win by unanimous decision; expect similar outcome
- Volk favored to defend title on points due to precision and control
- The fight is scheduled to begin around 2.20pm AEDT on Sunday February 1
Expired
Alexander Volkanovski (Photo by Getty Images)
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Tips & Prediction
Alexander Volkanovski enters the rematch with Diego Lopes in Sydney on Sunday as a strong favourite to defend the UFC featherweight title on points and the numbers suggest the champion is well placed to control the fight across five rounds once again.
While Lopes brings danger early and late with his finishing ability, Volkanovski’s composure, efficiency, and round-by-round consistency give him a clear path to another decision victory.
Volkanovski vs Lopes Stats & Trends
Volkanovski’s first encounter with Lopes in April 2025 followed a familiar script: calculated pressure, superior shot selection, and sustained output over 25 minutes. Although Lopes showed flashes of threat, Volkanovski dictated the tempo and consistently won the exchanges that matter on the scorecards.
That pattern aligns neatly with both fighters’ recent trends.
Key Betting Numbers
- Volkanovski defeated Lopes by unanimous decision in their first meeting
- Six of Volkanovski’s last eight wins have come via decision
- Five of Lopes’ seven career losses have gone to the judges
When Volkanovski wins at featherweight, it is increasingly through control rather than chaos.
Volkanovski vs Lopes - Last 5 Fights
Alexander Volkanovski
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Round | Time | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2025 | Diego Lopes | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 5:00 | UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Ilia Topuria | Loss | KO/TKO | 2 | 3:32 | UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Islam Makhachev | Loss | KO/TKO | 1 | 3:06 | UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Yair Rodriguez | Win | KO/TKO | 3 | 4:19 | UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Islam Makhachev | Loss | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 5:00 | UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski |
Diego Lopes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Round | Time | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2025 | Jean Silva | Win | KO/TKO | 2 | 4:48 | Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Alexander Volkanovski | Loss | Decision (Unanimous) | 5 | 5:00 | UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Brian Ortega | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 | UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Dan Ige | Win | Decision (Unanimous) | 3 | 5:00 | UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2 |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Sodiq Yusuff | Win | KO/TKO | 1 | 1:29 | UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill |
Alexander Volkanovski Form Analysis
Now 37, Volkanovski remains one of the most accomplished featherweights in UFC history. A two-time champion with a 27-4 professional record, he has consistently proven capable of neutralising elite challengers over long fights.
After arriving in the UFC in 2016, Volkanovski rose quickly, punctuating his ascent with a knockout of Chad Mendes and a statement win over Jose Aldo. His rivalry with Max Holloway defined an era, as Volkanovski outpointed the Hawaiian legend three times to establish dominance in the division.
Title defences against Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung further underlined his adaptability, blending elite defence with relentless pace.
Although lightweight title attempts against Islam Makhachev ultimately fell short, Volkanovski rebounded to reclaim featherweight gold after losing it briefly to Ilia Topuria. His decision win over Lopes to capture the vacant belt reaffirmed that, at 145 pounds, his fundamentals remain world-class.
Diego Lopes Form Analysis
Lopes should not be dismissed. The Brazilian has carved out a reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers, owning a 27-7 record with 23 stoppage wins.
After early setbacks in his UFC career, Lopes surged into contention with a five-fight winning streak that included submissions and knockouts, along with composed decision wins over Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. That run earned him a title opportunity, even if he came up short against Volkanovski.
Importantly, Lopes responded well to that setback, returning later in the year with a decisive knockout of Jean Silva. His resilience and finishing instincts ensure he remains a threat, particularly if the fight becomes chaotic.
Verdict
Lopes has the tools to test Volkanovski, but over five rounds the champion’s discipline, defence, and fight IQ remain decisive advantages.
Unless Lopes can force extended scrambles or land something decisive early, Volkanovski is likely to manage distance, pick his moments, and steadily accumulate rounds.
Volkanovski
Fight Winner
$1.66 - 3 Units
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Volk On Points
Method Of Victory
$2.45 - 2 Units
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