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Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships Round 2 Tips - Tonga To Send Samoa Packing

Ryan Tucker

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Fact Checked by Jeremy Darke

Last updated: Tue 21 Oct 2025 09:23

Ryan Tucker 21 Oct 2025

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Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 2 NRL game
Kick off is at 3:00 PM (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium
Tonga to win by 1-12 margin in 2025 Pacific Champs Round 2.
Samoa's past struggles with errors may impact their performance.
Tonga benefits from an extra week of preparation and strategic advantage.

Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships Round 2 Tips

Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa, Round 2 2025 - Expert Prediction

Samoa have a game under their belt but Tonga have the film and extra week to prepare. Tonga are tipped to win by a 1-12 margin in their first hitout of the 2025 Pacific Championships at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa, Round 2 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Tonga XIII Form Analysis
Tonga XIII Team News
Tonga XIII Team List
Toa Samoa Form Analysis
Toa Samoa Team News
Toa Samoa Team List
Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships 2025 Round 2 FAQ’s

The Samoans were close to an upset against the Kiwis last weekend but failed to convert their chances when handed to them. 29 tackles in the NZ 20m zone for just the 3 tries compared to their opponents 4 tries from just 16 red zone plays.

Tonga will have watched the film from last weekend’s matchup and found where Samoa are strong and where they are weak. Tonga will also be confident in their own ability after pushing Australia to the brink in last year’s Pac Champs Final. They bring back largely the same squad but with arguably a more dynamic halves pairing.

Samoa had troubles with errors and finishing their sets in a positive manner against the Kiwis. If they remedy that, then they are a good shot at winning this game too. It will likely come down to how well both teams can convert their chances when handed to them and with Isaiya Katoa leading Tonga and the weapons he has out wide, it is difficult to not side with them.

Take Tonga to win 1-12 as the slight underdogs. It is always fun to have a sprinkle on the draw in these tight matchups. Daniel Tupou is one of the most prolific tryscorers of his generation and is still climbing above opponents to pull down kicks, pick him up for a 4 pointer. Why not back Deine Mariner as first tryscorer for Samoa, he has scored first for his team in back to back games.

4 straight Pacific Champs Cup games have finished with a 1-12 margin.
Samoa have lost 6 straight games going back to the 2022 World Cup Final
Daniel Tupou (12) is the leading tryscorer for Tonga and scored 19 tries in the NRL this season.
Deine Mariner scored the first try for Samoa last week and scored the first try for Brisbane in the NRL grand final.

Head to Head

The last meeting of these two Pacific heavyweights was in 2022 with Samoa winning 20-18.

The ledger stands at 10-10 since 1986 but Samoa have won 3 of the last 5 dating back to 2015.

Tonga XIII Form Analysis

Tonga pushed Australia right to the end in last year’s Pac Champs final but were ultimately beaten 20-14 by the Kangaroos.

Their strength in broken play as well as second phase play helped them to outmaneuver the Australian methodical style of footy. They will no doubt be looking to repeat that effort in this year’s Championship.

The squad is relatively settled from last year’s tournament but a new halves pairing of Isaiah Iongi and Isaiya Katoa will look to spark the attack in their first outing together.

Tonga XIII Team News

Lehi Hopoate holds onto the No.1 jersey, with Isaiah Iongi handed the five-eighth role alongside Isaiya Katoa, who steers the side at halfback.

Daniel Tupou and Sione Katoa start on the wings, with Robert Toia and Tolutau Koula winning the battle for centre spots, Will Penisini misses out.

Addin Fonua-Blake and debutant Stefano Utoikamanu form a powerful front row, with Siliva Havili at hooker and Soni Luke on the bench.

Eli Katoa and Siua Wong get the nod in the back row, beating out Kulikefu Finefeuiaki. Jason Taumalolo locks the scrum in a typically stacked forward pack.

Felise Kaufusi and Moeaki Fotuaika headline the bench rotation. Haumole Olakau’atu and Taniela Paseka miss out through injury, while Keaon Koloamatangi is with the Kangaroos.

Tonga XIII Team List

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Tolu Koula

4. Robert Toia

5. Sione Katoa

6. Isaiah Iongi

7. Isaiya Katoa

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Siliva Havili

10. Stefano Utoikamanu

11. Siua Wong

12. Eli Katoa

13. Jason Taumalolo

Interchange

14. Soni Luke

15. Leka Halasima

16. Felise Kaufusi

17. Moeaki Fotuaika

Reserves

18. Demitric Vaimauga

19. Paul Alamoti

20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

21. Will Penisini

Toa Samoa Form Analysis

Samoa were strong in their 24-18 loss to the Kiwis in Round 1 of the Pac Champs. After trailing 16-12 at the break they managed to square things up at 18-all with 10 minutes to go but the deadlock was short-lived with the Kiwis scoring just minutes later.

Samoa hurt themselves with a poor completion rate, getting through just 31 of 41 sets in the game. They still managed 1533 Run Metres and won the linebreaks 6-5 but 47 missed tackles, 12 errors and allowing 19 offloads to their opponent wore them down in the end.

The back five all ran for over 100 metres with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck going for 201m including a Linebreak Assist and Try Assist. Payne Haas made 52 tackles and ran for 182 metres, the best combined numbers from any forward on the park.

Toa Samoa Team News

Both of the May brothers carried injuries into the tournament and are subsequently named in the reserves.

Ata Mariota is out with concussion as is Jaydn Su’A. Simi Sasagi comes into the starting team with Ativalu Lisati joining the interchange.

Jazz Tevaga has been named to play despite failing a HIA in last week’s game.

Toa Samoa Team List

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

2. Brian To'o

3. Izack Tago

4. Deine Mariner

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Jarome Luai

8. Josh Papalii

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Payne Haas

11. Jeremiah Nanai

12. Simi Sasagi

13. Junior Paulo

Interchange

14. Chanel Harris-Tavita

15. Benaiah Ioelu

16. Ativalu Lisati

17. Francis Molo

Reserves

18. Lyhkan King-Togia

19. Clayton Faulalo

20. Terrell May

21. Taylan May

Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships 2025 Round 2 FAQ’s

How to watch Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships 2025 Round 2?

You can watch the Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships 2025 Round 2 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships 2025 Round 2?

To buy tickets to the Tonga XIII vs Toa Samoa NRL 2025 Round 2 game check the NRL website or the official Suncorp Stadium site.

Verdict

Tonga XIII v Toa Samoa

Take Tonga to win 1-12 as the slight underdogs. It is always fun to have a sprinkle on the draw in these tight matchups. Pick Daniel Tupou up for a 4 pointer. and Deine Mariner as first tryscorer for Samoa.

Tonga 1-12

Winning Margin

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Draw

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