NRL State of Origin Series Winner Odds 2025 - Which state will win the State of Origin in 2025?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 26 Jul 2024

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Jeremy Darke 26 Jul 2024

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The NSW Blues took out the 2024 series and will look to make it two in a row.
The Blues are strong opening odds favourites for the 2025 State of Origin Series.
Queensland will be out for revenge after losing the State of Origin shield for the first time in three years

NSW early favourites for the 2025 State of Origin series. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

The NSW Blues won their first State of Origin in three years in the 2024 series, beating Queensland 2-1. The Blues have now firmed as early favourites to take out the 2025 State of Origin series.

2025 State of Origin Series Winner	Odds
New South Wales	1.67
Queensland	2.20

Note: Odds from Elitebet & correct on 26/7/2024

After losing Joseph Sualii in the opening stages of game 1 of the 2024 series, the NSW Blues dropped the opener to the Maroons 38-10. NSW coach Michael Maguire was then forced into some changes and none more important than replacing halfback Nicho Hynes with Parramatta No. 7 Mitchell Moses, which was the best card he could play.

Moses turned the series on its head with a man of the match performance in game two in Melbourne with the Blues putting in a dominant showing, beating Queensland 38-18 and sending the series into a decided.

Game three could not have been any different to the opening two matches of the series with the teams locked at 2-2 until the 62nd minute in a fierce defensive battle not giving anything to thier opposition. Queensland kicked a penalty goal to break the deadlock, however, some individual brilliance from Jarome Luai putting Bradman Best over two minutes later and Mitchell Moses stepping up and crossing the line himself, put the game and series out of reach for Billy Slater’s men and the Blues wrapped it up with a 14-4 game three victory and a 2-1 series win.

The early opening odds for NSW as $1.67 favourites is no surprise considering their dominant attacking performance in game two of the series and then shutting the Queenslanders out in game three.

Once the dust has settled from the 2024 series we can expect that the market will move a little more in the favour of Queensland as the 2025 series gets closer and they hype of the first Blues victory since 2021 begins to die down. Although NSW should go into the series as slight favourite handing Queensland their favoured underdog tag.