League of Inches Origin Best Bets: The Value Plays We’re Backing for Game 1

Joel Johnston

Editor

Last updated: Tue 26 May 2026 09:26

Joel Johnston 26 May 2026

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NSW backed to win Game 1, especially by a 1-12 margin.
Key try scorer picks: Cobbo (first try), Staggs & Olakau’atu (anytime).
Multis focus on NSW edge strength and playmaker combinations.

League of Inches Origin Best Bets: The Value Plays We’re Backing for Game 1

Origin betting always becomes chaos, the market gets tighter, the margins get smaller, and one moment can completely flip the game. That’s why I’m not trying to overcomplicate Game 1. There are a few prices that genuinely stand out to me, particularly around NSW’s edge attack and some of the tryscorer markets.

League of Inches Origin Best Bets: The Value Plays We’re Backing for Game 1
Blues Head-to-Head
Best Bet: NSW Head-to-Head ($1.60)
Margin Play
Best Bet: NSW 1–12 ($2.95)
First Tryscorer
Selwyn Cobbo First Tryscorer ($11)
Anytime Tryscorers
Kotoni Staggs Anytime ($2.85)
Haumole Olakau’atu Anytime ($3.20)
Same Game Multis
Joel - Teddy + Hudson Young + Kalyn Ponga Anytime ($21)
Hampo - NSW -2.5 + Olakau’atu Anytime + Cleary 6+ Points ($5.10)

These are the value plays from League of Inches for Wednesday night.

Full Game 1 Match Preview

State of Origin Best BetsLeague of InchesBet Here

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Blues Head-to-Head

Best Bet: NSW Head-to-Head ($1.60)

The boys are firmly backing the Blues at home.

There’s confidence around Nathan Cleary controlling the side, the mobility of the NSW forward pack and the impact their edges can have once the game opens up.

With Queensland still introducing new combinations across the spine and edges, the feeling was that NSW simply have slightly more balance heading into Game 1.

Daily Dabble Plays for Origin

Margin Play

Best Bet: NSW 1–12 ($2.95)

The expectation is still a tight Origin contest.

Six of the last eight Origin Game 1 matches have finished within a 1-12 margin, and even with attacking football increasing across the NRL, Origin still tends to slow games down significantly.

If NSW win, it likely comes through control rather than a blowout.

First Tryscorer

Selwyn Cobbo First Tryscorer ($11)

The logic is pretty simple. Queensland will likely target the edges early and Cobbo remains one of the most dangerous aerial and broken-play finishers in rugby league.

Anytime Tryscorers

Kotoni Staggs Anytime ($2.85)

Fresh off suspension and arriving with a point to prove, Staggs feels built for this type of game.

The expectation is that NSW attack Queensland’s edges heavily and Staggs running at tired defenders late shapes as a dangerous matchup.

Haumole Olakau’atu Anytime ($3.20)

This might be the favourite play.

Olakau’atu has become almost impossible to contain close to the line and his combination with Nathan Cleary on the edge could become one of the biggest advantages NSW have all night.