St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 12 Tips & Prediction - Warriors too good for embattled Dragons

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 21 May 2026 14:33

Andrew Hendrie 21 May 2026

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for Saturday's NRL R12
Dragons in shambles with 14 consecutive defeats; Warriors flying in 2nd spot
Tips: Warriors 13+ & Dragons Under 18.5 team total - DWZ & Leka for tries
The match is scheduled for kick off at 5.30pm AEST on Saturday May 23

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 12 Tips & Prediction

The high-flying Warriors are tipped for their ninth win of the season as they look to pile more misery on the rock-bottom Dragons on Saturday at Jubilee.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 12 Tips & Prediction
Dragons vs Warriors Stats & Trends
Dragons vs Warriors Head To Head
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
Dragons vs Warriors Team News

I'm not falling into the trap. The Dragons pushed the Panthers in a gallant performance during Magic Round before fading late, while the Warriors lost their halfback Tanah Boyd to a season-ending ACL injury and are missing Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell to Origin.

Perfect opportunity for the Dragons to at the very least cover and maybe push to snap their 14-match losing streak at home?

Nah, up the Wahs.

The Warriors command respect and are absolutely flying with eight wins from 10 this season. Lose Luke Metcalf, no worries, up steps Tanah Boyd. And after Boyd went off with a season-ending knee injury last week against the Broncos, Te Maire Martin stepped in with a brilliant performance.

The point is that Andrew Webster has developed a fantastic culture, system and structure at the Warriors. When one man goes down, the next steps in seamlessly and plays their role to perfection. So I don't think the Warriors will lose a step with their outs for this game and they still have immense firepower and speed in the backs and forwards - absolute travesty that Jackson Ford missed out on Origin selection for the Blues.

Take the Warriors 13+ and Dragons to score Under 18.5 team points. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is on fire and can cross for the first, second or third try, while Leka The Wrecker looks poised for a big game on the edge.

Dragons vs Warriors Stats & Trends

Dragons have lost their last 14 games
Five of Dragons' last six defeats have been by 13+ margins
Dragons have scored Under 18.5 points in eight of their 10 games this season
Warriors have won eight of their 10 games this season
Six of those eight wins have been by 13+ margins
Warriors have kept their opponents to Under 18.5 points in seven of their 10 games this season
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored 1+ try in his last six games, scoring the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try in five of his last six
Dragons have conceded 1+ try to opposing left second-rowers in their last three games (Leka Halasima)

Dragons vs Warriors Head To Head

Warriors have won four of the last five meetings, but both 2025 encounters were close.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	Warriors	14–10	Go Media
2025	Warriors	15–14	WIN
2024	Dragons	30–12	WIN
2023	Warriors	18–6	Go Media
2023	Warriors	48–18	WIN

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

I mean it goes without saying the Dragons are enduring a nightmare season, but I'd even argue no team has gone worse since the Rabbitohs were booted out of the comp and re-entered in 2002, struggling in those early years.

The players are putting in the effort and you can't really put any blame on Dean Young - the club just doesn't have the cattle and the powers at be have let down the fans with questionable off-field decisions.

Case in point last week - the Dragons went toe-to-toe with Penrith for the majority of the contest and were actually unlucky not to go into the break level after Damien Cook was robbed of a clear try by the video ref.

Ultimately the Panthers were too classy in a 28-6 victory. Again, just can't see where the Dragons' points are going to come from with Kyle Flanagan and Nathaniel Atkinson in the halves. It's just four standard hit-ups followed by an average bomb that isn't contested, rinse and repeat.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis

Andrew Webster deserves immense credit with what he's done with this Warriors side - they've been entrenched inside the top four for the bulk of the last two seasons and are second coming into Round 12, behind only Penrith.

James Fisher-Harris, Erin Clark and Jackson Ford are leading by example up front, Wayne Egan is low-key one of the best hookers in the game and DWZ and AKP are lighting it up out wide, scoring tries for fun.

It will be interesting to see if Te Maire Martin can reproduce his performance from off the bench last week and maintain the level that Tanah Boyd was displaying. It's the only way I see the Warriors falling off in this current competition.

The Wahs blew Brisbane off the park during Magic Round, aided by a lopsided first-half penalty count. Fisher-Harris led the way with 21 hit-ups, while DWZ scored another double, running for 216 metres, two line breaks and three offloads. Egan also impressed with a try and two line breaks.

Dragons vs Warriors Team News

Jaydn Su'A returns from a three-game suspension in the centres for the Dragons in place of Moses Suli, who is still out with a back problem. Tyrell Sloan is back from a groin injury on the bench.

The Warriors lose Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell to Origin, while Boyd is out for the season after doing his ACL. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, Luke Hanson and Marata Niukore are the new faces on the pine, with Ford and Jacob Laban coming into the starting side.

Dragons	Position	Warriors
Clinton Gutherson	1	Taine Tuaupiki
Setu Tu	2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
Jaydn Su'A	3	Ali Leiataua
Valentine Holmes	4	Adam Pompey
Christian Tuipulotu	5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Daniel Atkinson	6	Chanel Harris-Tavita
Kyle Flanagan	7	Te Maire Martin
Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga	8	James Fisher-Harris
Damien Cook	9	Wayde Egan
Toby Couchman	10	Jackson Ford
Dylan Egan	11	Leka Halasima
Hamish Stewart	12	Jacob Laban
Ryan Couchman	13	Erin Clark
Luciano Leilua	14	Sam Healey
Emre Guler	15	Tanner Stowers-Smith
Josh Kerr	16	Demitric Vaimauga
Blake Lawrie	17	Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
Tyrell Sloan	18	Luke Hanson
Lyhkan King-Togia	19	Marata Niukore
Hayden Buchanan	20	Kayliss Fatialofa
Hame Sele	21	Makaia Tafua
Tyler Peckham-Harris	22	Roger Tuivasa-Sheck