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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 21 Tips - Rabbitohs To Stay Perfect At Accor

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026 09:44

South Sydney Rabbitohs are strongly favored to maintain their perfect home record in Round 21 against Melbourne Storm, having already dominated them earlier in the season with a 48-6 win. The Rabbitohs’ attack is firing, averaging 28.8 points per game, and their left edge—featuring Alex Johnston—is particularly dangerous. Melbourne Storm, traditionally dominant in this match-up, have lost form and struggle away from home. Expert analysis tips Souths to win outright, surpass 22.5 team points, and Johnston as a likely tryscorer.

Jeremy Darke 21 Jul 2026
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  • Rabbitohs are unbeaten at Accor Stadium in 2026 & defeated Storm 48-6 earlier this year.
  • Souths tipped to win outright and score over 22.5 team points.
  • Alex Johnston is the standout anytime tryscorer pick.
  • Kick-off is at 8:00 PM (AEST) on Friday, 24th July at Accor Stadium, Sydney.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 21 Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 21 Tips

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction


South Sydney are backed to protect their perfect Accor Stadium record, with Alex Johnston tipped to continue his exceptional tryscoring record against Melbourne.

The Rabbitohs have been one of the competition’s most dangerous attacking teams when playing at home, winning all five of their matches at Accor Stadium this season. They also dismantled Melbourne 48-6 earlier in the year, proving they have the attacking weapons to expose a Storm side struggling for consistency and confidence.

Melbourne have historically dominated this matchup, winning 12 of the last 15 meetings, but the Storm are not operating at their usual level. They have lost two of their last three matches, sit outside the top eight and have won only one of their last eight games away from AAMI Park.

That makes South Sydney head-to-head the preferred result bet. The model projects the Rabbitohs to win by 4.9 points, which is close to the market handicap, but taking the home side outright provides protection against another tight finish. Souths lost 25-24 when these sides met at Accor Stadium last season, but their current home form gives them every chance to reverse that result.

The Rabbitohs Over 22.5 team points is another strong angle. South Sydney have exceeded that mark in four of their last five games, averaging 28.8 points during that period. They rank fourth for points scored and first for linebreaks, while Melbourne sit 10th defensively and 15th for linebreaks conceded.

Alex Johnston is the standout Anytime Tryscorer selection. The prolific winger has scored 19 tries in 16 appearances against Melbourne and remains one of the most reliable finishers in the competition. South Sydney’s left edge should receive plenty of attacking opportunities if Cody Walker can create space against Melbourne’s reshuffled outside backs.

  • South Sydney have won all five games at Accor Stadium this season.
  • The Rabbitohs defeated Melbourne 48-6 earlier this year.
  • Souths have scored more than 22.5 points in four of their last five matches.
  • Alex Johnston has scored 19 tries in 16 games against the Storm.

Head to Head


The Rabbitohs produced the most decisive result in the recent rivalry when they defeated the Storm 48-6 in Melbourne earlier this season. South Sydney scored freely throughout that match and restricted the Storm to just one try.

The previous meeting at Accor Stadium was much closer, with Melbourne escaping with a 25-24 victory in 2025. The Storm have generally controlled this matchup, but South Sydney’s Round 8 demolition showed the balance may have shifted.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis


South Sydney have won three of their last five matches, with victories over Brisbane, Parramatta and Newcastle. Their two defeats came against Penrith and Canberra, although they showed plenty of attacking threat in last week’s 34-24 loss to the Raiders.

The Rabbitohs trailed 28-6 at half-time against Canberra before fighting their way back into the contest. They finished with more possession, almost 200 additional run metres and six linebreaks, but two intercept tries and a poor opening half left them with too much work to do.

South Sydney have averaged 28.8 points across their last five matches and rank first in the competition for linebreaks. Cody Walker remains central to their attack, while Matthew Dufty, Jack Wighton, Campbell Graham and Johnston give the Rabbitohs multiple threats across the field.

South Sydney hold a run-metres advantage over Melbourne and have averaged 1,788.8 metres across their last five games.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis


Melbourne have won three of their last five matches, but their season remains in danger after a 14-6 loss to the Roosters. The Storm sit four competition points outside the top eight and can afford very few mistakes over the remaining rounds.

Their attack struggled badly against Sydney, taking 54 minutes to record a play-the-ball inside the opposition 20.

Jahrome Hughes’ return is a major boost after he missed the Roosters match with hamstring soreness. His kicking game and ability to organise the attack should provide more direction, while Harry Grant and Sualauvi Faalogo remain capable of creating opportunities through the middle.

Melbourne have averaged only 21.2 points across their last five games and face a Rabbitohs attack capable of forcing them into a higher-scoring contest than they would prefer.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm Team News & Team Lists


Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 21 Team List Article.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 21 FAQs

  • How to livestream South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 21?

    You can livestream the South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia, the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

  • How to buy tickets to South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 21?

    To buy tickets to the South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 21 game, check the NRL website or the official South Sydney Rabbitohs site.

Verdict

Souths will pinch consecutive wins against the Storm scoring over their team total of 22.5 points with Alex Johston crossing for another 4-pointer.
Best Bet4: Alex Johnston First Tryscorer $6.50 at OnlyBets - 1 Unit
Best Bet1: South Sydney Rabbitohs Money Line $1.96 at Neds - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Souths Over 22.5 Team Total $1.91 at dabble (BETSAU) - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Alex Johnston Anytime Tryscorer $1.70 at Betnow - 2 Units
Alex Johnston
First Tryscorer
$6.50 - 1 Unit

Bet at OnlyBets
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Money Line
$1.96 - 3 Units

Bet at Neds
Souths Over 22.5
Team Total
$1.91 - 2 Units

Bet at dabble (BETSAU)
Alex Johnston
Anytime Tryscorer
$1.70 - 2 Units

Bet at Betnow

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