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North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 21 Tips & Prediction - Broncos to edge massive derby

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026 02:36

Andrew Hendrie 3 hours ago

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North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos predictions for Saturday's NRL R21 game
Broncos to back up Panthers scalp with another big performance led by Walsh
Walsh & Burns tipped for tries, Staggs holds value with 1st, 2nd or 3rd try angle
The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.35pm AEST on Saturday July 25

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 21 Tips & Prediction

With their big guns back on deck, the Broncos are tipped for another win over the Cowboys in a huge Queensland derby in Townsville, with Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs and Braidon Burns backed for tries.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 21 Tips & Prediction
Cowboys vs Broncos Stats & Trends
Cowboys vs Broncos Head To Head
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Cowboys vs Broncos Team News

They couldn't do it again? Could they?

If Reece Walsh can maintain his extraordinary level from last week's win over Penrith, then why not? Brisbane will probably need to win all of their remaining games to make the finals due to their horror points differential, but they proved once again that when operating at their peak level, they are the best team in this competition.

Walsh posted ridiculous numbers in that rain-soaked 14-12 victory over the Panthers, touching the ball 86 times, which is a record for a fullback, while he had a hand in all three of the Broncos' tries, along with kicking the match-winning conversion from the sideline.

After carrying the Broncos to the premiership with a series of match-winning performances in the finals last year, Walsh will be hoping to re-produce that form and lead his side into September footy again.

First and foremost, I believe Brisbane have what it takes to beat the Cowboys on Saturday night in Townsville. They have a strong recent record against their Queensland rivals and Walsh traditionally lifts when facing Queensland teams. He's backed in for a four-pointer.

I also want to focus on more player props for this one. Cowboys winger Braidon Burns has to be backed after watching Brian To'o cross for a double against Brisbane last week. Burns has been in lethal tryscoring form himself and can benefit from that suspect Broncos' left edge defence.

I also like the first, second or third tryscorer angle for Kotoni Staggs. Brisbane absolutely love the short grubber kick behind the line for Staggs - but they tend to do it early in games to catch defences off guard. Indeed, of the seven games Staggs has scored a try in 2026 (including Origin), he's crossed for the first, second or third in five, while the centre also has a strong recent record against the Cows.

Cowboys vs Broncos Stats & Trends

Broncos have won six of their last seven games vs Cowboys
Cowboys have lost four of their last six games
Broncos have won their last three games in Townsville
Reece Walsh has scored 1+ try in six of his last seven games vs Queensland teams
Kotoni Staggs has scored 1+ try in his last four games vs Cowboys
Staggs has scored the first, second or third try in five of his seven try-scoring games in 2026
Staggs scored the first try vs Cowboys in Round 6 earlier this season
Braidon Burns has scored six tries in his last five games - Broncos leaked 2 tries vs To'o last week

Cowboys vs Broncos Head To Head

Broncos have dominated lately, but the Cowboys snapped a six-match losing streak with a high-scoring 35-31 win earlier this year, with Heilum Luki scoring the match-winning try in the 78th minute.

Date	Winner	Score	Venue
10 Apr 2026	North Qld	35–31	Suncorp Stadium
30 Aug 2025	Brisbane	38–30	Queensland Country Bank Stadium
21 Mar 2025	Brisbane	26–16	Suncorp Stadium
10 Aug 2024	Brisbane	42–18	Queensland Country Bank Stadium
29 Mar 2024	Brisbane	38–12	Suncorp Stadium

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis

The Cowboys remain arguably the hardest team to get a read on and are seemingly capable of beating and losing to any team on any day.

North Queensland are clinging onto a finals spot in eighth, but until they improve their consistency and defence, they can't really be considered as premiership threats - although they have the ability to beat the best, as demonstrated through another win over the Panthers recently.

However, overall, the Cowboys have lost four of their last six games, with one of those wins coming against a slumping Manly side in golden point.

Looking to establish themselves in the eight, the Cows were blown away 36-16 by a Dolphins side who had conceded 66 points in their previous game and were missing their halfback.

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

The Broncos' struggles in 2026 have been well-documented, but they have dealt with a number of injuries to high-profile players.

With Walsh, Payne Haas, Adam Reynolds, Pat Carrigan and Ezra Mam all back on deck, along with the return of hooker Billy Walters for this game, the Broncos will look to recapture the memories of their magical premiership run from last year.

It's still highly unlikely they will miss the finals, but if the Broncos take it one week at a time and keep winning, belief will start to grow.

It was a Walsh masterclass last week against the Panthers at CommBank, with the electric fullback registering three try assists as the Broncos came away with a 14-12 win, snap an eight-match losing streak and keep their season alive.

Cowboys vs Broncos Team News

Jake Clifford returns to partner Tom Dearden in the halves for the Cowboys, while Tom Mikaele is back from concussion, meaning Sam McIntyre drops out of the side.

Billy Walters has been named on the bench for his first game since tearing his ACL in the finals last year.

Brendan Piakura is out with concussion, with Xavier Willison moving to the second row and Preston Riki starting at prop.

Cowboys	Position	Broncos
Scott Drinkwater	1	Reece Walsh
Braidon Burns	2	Josiah Karapani
Jaxon Purdue	3	Kotoni Staggs
Tom Chester	4	Gehamat Shibasaki
Murray Taulagi	5	Deine Mariner
Jake Clifford	6	Ezra Mam
Tom Dearden	7	Adam Reynolds
Thomas Mikaele	8	Preston Riki
Reed Mahoney	9	Cory Paix
Jason Taumalolo	10	Payne Haas
Heilum Luki	11	Xavier Willison
Jeremiah Nanai	12	Jordan Riki
Reuben Cotter	13	Patrick Carrigan
Soni Luke	14	Ben Hunt
Griffin Neame	15	Ben Talty
Matthew Lodge	16	Va'a Semu
Coen Hess	17	Grant Anderson
Zac Laybutt	18	Billy Walters
Ethan King	19	Luke Gale

Verdict

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos are backed to keep their season alive for another week, with Staggs & Walsh making an impact. Burns can cross for the Cows again.

Broncos Win

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