NRL Round 21 Margin Tips 2026: Best 1-12 and 13+ Predictions
NRL Round 21 promises intense action as finals berths are on the line with key players returning. Our model predicts only two comfortable wins (Panthers and Raiders, both 13+), while the remaining fixtures are tipped to be tight, low-margin battles. Significant returns like Mitchell Moses for Parramatta and James Tedesco for Roosters could shape outcomes, but injuries persist across squads. In summary, expect close games except for Penrith and Canberra, who should record strong wins. These predictions offer punters and fans a valuable guide for tipping and wagers.
- Only Panthers & Raiders tipped for 13+ wins; rest expected to be close.
- Key player returns for several sides ahead of finals race.
- Injury concerns persist but most matches should be decided by slim margins.
Margins for every game of NRL Round 21, 2026. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
NRL Round 21 Margin Tips: Best 1-12 and 13+ Predictions
Round 21 arrives with plenty on the line as the finals race tightens and several contenders receive timely boosts through returning players.
Mitchell Moses is set to return for Parramatta, the Roosters welcome back a host of Origin stars, while Manly must once again navigate life without Tom Trbojevic after another heartbreaking hamstring injury.
Our model projects just two comfortable victories this weekend, with the remaining fixtures expected to be decided by one or two key moments.
Here are the best 1-12 and 13+ margin predictions for every game.
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers
Tip: Panthers 13+
Penrith Panthers13+ Winning MarginBET HERE
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Mitchell Moses and Junior Paulo strengthen Parramatta considerably, but Penrith are perfectly placed to respond after last week's disappointing performance. The Panthers have dominated this rivalry in recent seasons and should control the middle before their attack creates enough opportunities to turn a competitive first half into a comfortable win.
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters
Tip: Roosters 1-12
Sydney Roosters1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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The Roosters receive a huge boost with James Tedesco, Lindsay Collins and Robert Toia all expected back in the starting side. Newcastle remain difficult to beat at McDonald Jones Stadium and should stay in the contest, but Sydney's added class and experience should prove decisive.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Tip: Storm 1-12
Melbourne Storm1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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Both clubs continue to battle significant injury concerns. South Sydney lose David Fifita through suspension, while Melbourne remain without Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Will Warbrick. Despite those setbacks, our model still gives the Storm the edge in what shapes as a low-margin contest.
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers
Tip: Raiders 13+
Canberra Raiders13+ Winning MarginBET HERE
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Hudson Young is a huge loss for Canberra, but the Raiders still hold a sizeable advantage against a Tigers side battling suspensions, judiciary hearings and poor form. Playing at home with plenty to play for, Canberra should eventually overwhelm the visitors.
Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors
Tip: Warriors 1-12
New Zealand Warriors1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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Stephen Crichton is expected back for Canterbury, but the Warriors continue to find ways to win despite a long injury list. New Zealand have handled adversity better than almost anyone this season and our model expects them to edge another close, physical contest.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos
Tip: Broncos 1-12
Brisbane Broncos1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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The Broncos arrive full of confidence after knocking over Penrith, while the Cowboys continue to juggle their halves following Jake Clifford's omission. North Queensland are always dangerous at home, but Brisbane's forward pack and experienced spine give them the advantage.
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans
Tip: Titans 1-12
Gold Coast Titans1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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The Titans continue to trend in the right direction, although AJ Brimson's availability remains in doubt following a concussion. The Dragons have been far more competitive in recent weeks at Jubilee Stadium, making this one of the tighter games of the round, but our model narrowly favours Gold Coast.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks
Tip: Sharks 1-12
Cronulla Sharks1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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Tom Trbojevic's latest hamstring injury is another massive blow for Manly, forcing Lehi Hopoate into the fullback role. Cronulla, meanwhile, continue to build momentum at the perfect time of year and look well equipped to grind out an important away victory despite the challenge of playing at 4 Pines Park.
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