Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 17 Tips - Take The Big Start

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026 04:16

Ryan Tucker 26 Jun 2026

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Raiders likely to win, but Dragons +10.5 offers strong value
Under 52.5 points recommended with both teams struggling in attack
Matt Timoko is a top tryscorer pick vs Dragons
Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 28th June at GIO Stadium

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction

Canberra should win at GIO Stadium, but the number is too big to ignore. St George Illawarra +10.5 and Under 52.5 are the two best betting angles.

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 17 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News & Team Lists
Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

This is a strange setup because one of the two venue trends has to break. The Raiders have lost five of seven at GIO Stadium this season, while the Dragons have not won in Canberra since 2015. Canberra are the more likely winner, but asking them to clear double digits is a different conversation.

The St George Illawarra Dragons have covered this number in four of six games against bottom-nine opponents and were right in the fight against Newcastle last week. They scored more tries than the Knights but lost 22-20 after goal-kicking issues, which is exactly the type of performance that keeps a +10.5 ticket alive.

The Canberra Raiders have won five of their last six against the Dragons, but three of their five wins this season have been by four points or fewer. The recent head-to-heads also support taking the points, with the last five meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.

The Under 52.5 is just as strong. 10 of the Dragons' 14 games have gone Under and 10 of Canberra's 15 games have gone Under, while unders are still hitting at 54% this season in the broader NRL market. Both attacks also rank in the bottom three for points, which makes 52.5 feel too high.

Take St George Illawarra +10.5 and Under 52.5. Matt Timoko is the tryscorer play after scoring in two straight and crossing five times in his last five games against the Dragons.

The Dragons have not won at GIO Stadium since 2015.
The Raiders have lost five of seven games at GIO Stadium this season.
The last five Raiders v Dragons meetings were all decided by 10 points or fewer.
Matt Timoko has scored five tries in his last five games against St George Illawarra.

Head to Head Stats

Canberra have the stronger head-to-head record, winning four of the last five and five of the last six overall. The catch is margin with the last five meetings having finished by 6, 4, 2, 10 and 6 points, which is exactly why St George Illawarra +10.5 is hard to pass up.

Raiders Atk Rank	Dragons Def Rank	Stat	Dragons Atk Rank	Raiders Def Rank
15	17	Points	17	13
11	17	Run Mts	14	12
14	16	Linebreaks	17	12
10	13	Compl %	8	14

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis

Canberra have been frustrating because the pieces are there, but the full 80-minute performance keeps disappearing. They were sharp early against Melbourne last week before fading badly in a 42-20 defeat.

Across their last five games the Raiders are averaging only 16.0 points scored and 25.0 conceded. That makes it difficult to trust them as a double-digit favourite, even against a Dragons side sitting at the bottom of the ladder.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

The Dragons are still finding ways to lose games, but last week's 22-20 defeat to Newcastle showed enough to believe they can hang around. Their attack is still ranked last for points and linebreaks, so there is no need to get carried away, but the effort level is there.

St George Illawarra are averaging 16.0 points scored and 28.0 conceded across their last five. That is ugly, but this matchup does not require them to win. It only requires them to stay inside 10.5 against a Raiders side that has not been putting teams away.

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News & Team Lists

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 17 Team List Article.

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to livestream Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17?

You can livestream the Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 17 game check the NRL website or the official Canberra Raiders site.

Verdict

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

Take St George Illawarra +10.5 and Under 52.5. Matt Timoko is the tryscorer play after scoring in two straight and crossing five times in his last five games against the Dragons.