La Liga 2026/27

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid La Liga Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rivals collide in mouth-watering Madrid derby

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026 05:33

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions for Sunday's La Liga game
Goals expected, with all three meetings last term seeing BTTS & Over 2.5
No player has created more big chances in La Liga than Arda Guler this term (8)
The game is scheduled for kick off at 12.15am AEST on Monday September 21

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Soccer > Spain La Liga. T&Cs apply. Watch and bet Starts in To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid La Liga Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in six of their last seven home La Liga meetings with rivals Real Madrid, so the hosts are backed in the Double Chance market in what is shaping as another goal-fest in Sunday's big derby showdown at the Metropolitano.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid La Liga Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats & Trends
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head To Head
Atletico Madrid Form Analysis
Atletico Madrid Team News
Real Madrid Form Analysis
Real Madrid Team News
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Live Stream

Real have won six of their seven games to open the season in all competitions, but they haven't been convincing lately, especially at the back, which leaves the door open for Atletico to come away with a positive result here.

Jose Mourinho's side needed a last-minute winner from substitute Carlos Espi against Elche mid-week, while they were also outplayed at home by Inter in the Champions League, instead capitalising on some defensive mishaps from their Italian opponents. Real also conceded in a win over Vallecano recently, so question marks surround this Real defence.

Atletico meanwhile have rounded into some strong form ahead of this clash, crushing Real Sociedad 3-0 on the road before another big 4-0 triumph over Osasuna at home, with new recruit Jonathan David scoring in both victories.

With Atleti humming in attack and Real's defensive fragilities, I'm backing the hosts to win or draw, along with BTTS - Yes & Over 2.5 goals, which has landed in the last three meetings.

There's plenty of options in the player props, but I've settled on Real playmaker Arda Guler - nobody has created more big chances than the young Turk so far this season, while he really should have been credited with a goal mid-week vs Elche after his stunning free-kick was awarded as an own goal off the keeper.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats & Trends

BTTS - Yes & Over 2.5 goals landed in all three meetings last season
BTTS - Yes & Over 2.5 goals has landed in Real's last three games
Atletico have seen Over 2.5 goals in their last six games
Atletico are unbeaten in six of their last seven La Liga home games vs Real
Atletico are unbeaten in their last four La Liga home games
Arda Guler has created eight big chances in La Liga this season (most in the league)
Guler has a goal involvement in three of five La Liga games this term & scored a free kick last week that was credited as an own goal off the keeper

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head To Head

Real Madrid leads the H2H with 156 wins to Atlético Madrid's 76 wins, alongside 73 draws out of 305 total matches across all official competitions.

Breakdown by Competition

La Liga: 174 matches - Real Madrid 92 wins, Atlético 42 wins, 44 draws
Copa del Rey: 46 matches - Real Madrid 18 wins, Atlético 14 wins, 14 draws
UEFA Champions League: 10 matches - Real Madrid 6 wins, Atlético 2 wins, 2 draws

Real are looking to win three straight Madrid derbies for the first time since 2020 here. Atletico are unbeaten in six of their last seven home La Liga meetings between the teams.

Atletico Madrid Form Analysis

Solid start to the season for Atletico, picking up four wins from their opening six La Liga games to come into this clash in fourth spot on the ladder.

There was some cause for concern following a 2-1 Champions League defeat away to Liverpool and 3-0 loss against Athletic Bilbao in the league, but Diego Simeone's side have bounced back into form nicely over the last week.

Indeed, Atleti were too good in a 3-0 win over Real Sociedad in San Sebastian before Wednesday's 4-0 demolition of Osasuna, with Jonathan David scoring his second goal in as many games, along with assisting Lee Kang-in, while Robin Le Normand and Alex Baena also found the back of the net.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Julian Alvarez was the source of much drama throughout the summer - he's ended up remaining at the club, but is ruled out of the derby with a muscle strain.

Other than that, Simeone has largely a full squad to choose from here, with Lookman and David set to start up front.

Real Madrid Form Analysis

Real have won five of their opening six La Liga matches to sit on 15 points heading into this clash, three points behind rivals Barcelona at the top of the table.

Overall, it has been a solid start to Mourinho's second spell in charge, although there is still room for improvement defensively, with Real keeping just one clean sheet across their first seven matches in all competitions.

Madrid opened their league campaign with three consecutive victories, beating Espanyol 2-1, Real Sociedad 4-1 and Malaga 4-0. Their perfect start came to an end with a shock 1-0 defeat away to Real Betis, where Kylian Mbappe squandered several golden opportunities, including a penalty.

Real responded with a 2-1 victory over Inter in their Champions League opener, although the performance was far from convincing. Mourinho's side had just 36 per cent of possession and were beaten 21-16 in the shot count by the Italian champions.

Madrid produced an impressive response, racing out of the blocks in a 4-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano. Mbappe struck twice, while Alvaro Carreras and Jude Bellingham also found the back of the net.

However, consistency remains an issue and Real were dragged into a dogfight in their most-recent clash mid-week with Elche.

After going ahead 2-0 in the first half courtesy of a brilliant free-kick from Gula and Mbappe's eighth goal of the season, Real were pegged back to 2-2 before 21-year-old Espi came off the bench to score the winner in the 91st minute.

Real Madrid Team News

Eder Militao, Rodrygo, and Ferland Mendy all remain sidelined with injury.

Mbappe has eight goals in seven La Liga appearances, but only one of those came on the road - a few days ago against Elche.

Vini Jr has also squandered various big chances this season, only managing one goal in seven games in all competitions.

Summer recruit Yan Diomande registered his first goal involvement in the win over Elche and could retain his starting spot on the wing.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Live Stream

Watch and bet on Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid live football from La Liga.

You can watch and bet on the match live at bet365 > Soccer > La Liga with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access.

To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming on bet365 is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.

Verdict

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

Atleti are backed to win or draw at home, with both teams scoring & over 2.5 goals.

Yes & Over 2.5

BTTS & Total Goals

$1.65 - 3 Units

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Arda Guler

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