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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 10 Tips & Prediction - Knights' attack too strong for hapless Dragons
The Newcastle Knights are well-placed to claim their first victory at WIN Stadium in over a decade, with the Dragons languishing at 0-8 and struggling defensively. The Knights return to form with key players back from injury, recently defeating the Rabbitohs in a high-scoring contest. Betting tips lean towards the Knights covering a -8.5 line in another shootout, with Kalyn Ponga tipped to score. The Dragons' season remains off track, and unless there's a dramatic improvement, expect the Knights to pile on the points.
- St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday's NRL R10 game
- Dragons in shambles on 12-match losing streak
- Knights tipped to cover in another high-scoring game, with Ponga crossing for a try
- The match is scheduled for kick off at 3.00pm AEST on Saturday May 9
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 10 Tips & Prediction
The Knights are set to secure their first win at WIN Stadium since 2011 and condemn the embattled Dragons to a 13th consecutive defeat to kick off Super Saturday.
I'm officially done trying to find betting angles for the Dragons, which probably means they'll finally register their first win for the season here.
But in all seriousness, this club is all over the place and Dean Young obviously has his hands full - unless he's worked miracles over the bye week, then it's set to be another heavy defeat for the Dragons against a Knights side who are piling on the points following the return of their superstar attacking players.
Kalyn Ponga, Dylan Brown and Fletcher Sharpe were at their electrifying best as the Knights dropped 42 points on the in-form Rabbitohs last week, with Greg Marzhew scoring a hat-trick and prop forward Trey Mooney crossing for a double.
The concern for Newcastle is the fact they also conceded 38 points - that's not going to win you premierships in the long run, but it was entertaining to watch.
I was tempted to back the Dragons for Under 22.5 team points, which they've failed to surpass all season, but playing at home with a suspect Newcastle defence worries me. So instead, I'll back the Knights to cover their -8.5 line with Over 51.5 total points, which covers us with ample points at both ends of the field. Knights prevailing in another shootout looks the most likely outcome to me.
Ponga was heavily involved in his return from injury last week and has a good tryscoring record against the Dragons - take the Knights fullback to cross again.
Dragons vs Knights Stats & Trends
- Dragons have lost their last 12 games
- Dragons have failed to cover a +8.5 line in six of their last seven games
- Dragons have conceded 92 points in their last two games
- Dragons have conceded 114 points in their last three games at WIN Stadium
- Knights have seen 56+ points in their last four games & 80 last week vs Rabbitohs
- Knights have covered a -8.5 line in three of their five wins this season
- Kalyn Ponga has scored five tries in his last four appearances vs Dragons
- Dragons have conceded 1+ try to opposition fullbacks in their last four games
Dragons vs Knights Head To Head
Dragons won the only meeting last year, but the Knights prevailed in the two previous encounters, scoring 30+ points in both. Newcastle haven't won at WIN Stadium in 15 years.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 20–6 | Jubilee |
| 2024 | Newcastle Knights | 30–10 | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| 2023 | Newcastle Knights | 32–12 | Netstrata Jubilee Stadium |
| 2022 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 21–16 | WIN Stadium |
| 2021 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 22–13 | McDonald Jones Stadium |
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
With each passing week, the likelihood of the Dragons going winless across the season actually becomes a genuine possibility.
I mean, if they don't win this game, they have the Panthers, Warriors, Broncos and Sharks coming up over the next month.
It goes without saying it's been a shambolic start to the season - a 0-8 record has led to the departure of Shane Flanagan, but seriously, what is Dean Young supposed to do with this roster?
Young halfback Kade Reed was thrown into the deep end in his NRL debut on ANZAC Day against the Roosters - he showed some promising signs, but ideally you'd like for him to develop further in NSW Cup as the Dragons were demolished 62-16 by the Roosters.
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
The Knights snapped a three-match losing streak last week to get their season back on track following some injuries to their key attacking players across the early rounds.
With the likes of Ponga, Brown and Sharpe all back on deck, the Knights emerged triumphant in an 80-point shootout with the Rabbitohs last week, holding on for a thrilling 42-38 victory.
It certainly wasn't a game for the purists and I have mixed feelings about where the sport is heading, but watching this Knights side in full flow is definitely entertaining.
Ponga had 21 runs for over 200 metres in his return from injury, while Brown and Sharpe continue to develop their halves combination. Greg Marzhew is reaping the rewards out wide, while forwards Trey Mooney and Dylan Lucas also scored doubles last week.
Dragons vs Knights Team News
No changes to the Knights side that toppled Souths last week.
Clint Gutherson returns for the Dragons at fullback, pushing Tyrell Sloan back to the reserves. Dylan Egan is also back for his first game since tearing his ACL last year as he replaces the suspended Luciano Leilua.
Kade Reed and Daniel Atkinson remain the halves.
| St George Illawarra Dragons | Position | Newcastle Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Clinton Gutherson | 1 | Kalyn Ponga |
| Setu Tu | 2 | Dominic Young |
| Moses Suli | 3 | Dane Gagai |
| Valentine Holmes | 4 | Bradman Best |
| Mathew Feagai | 5 | Greg Marzhew |
| Daniel Atkinson | 6 | Fletcher Sharpe |
| Kade Reed | 7 | Dylan Brown |
| Emre Guler | 8 | Jacob Saifiti |
| Damien Cook | 9 | Phoenix Crossland |
| Toby Couchman | 10 | Trey Mooney |
| Dylan Egan | 11 | Dylan Lucas |
| Ryan Couchman | 12 | Jermaine McEwen |
| Hamish Stewart | 13 | Mat Croker |
| Josh Kerr | 14 | Sandon Smith |
| Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | 15 | Tyson Frizell |
| Blake Lawrie | 16 | Pasami Saulo |
| Jacob Halangahu | 17 | Francis Manuleleua |
| Kyle Flanagan | 18 | Harrison Graham |
| Tyrell Sloan | 19 | Fletcher Hunt |
| Lyhkan King-Togia | 20 | Cody Hopwood |
| Hame Sele | 21 | Kyle McCarthy |
| Christian Tuipulotu | 22 | James Schiller |
Verdict
The Knights are tipped to cover a -8.5 line in another high-scoring game. Ponga targets a sixth try in five games against the Dragons.
Knights -8.5
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