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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans NFL Week 12 Tips & Predictions - Texans defence keeps it tight

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 18 Nov 2025 18:38

Jeremy Darke 18 Nov 2025

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Expert NFL Tips for Week 12
Kick Off is at 12:15 PM AEDT at NRG Stadium
Davis Mills steps up with over 250 yards passing
Houston's defense is key; game likely under 43.5 points.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans NFL Week 12 Tips

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans NFL Week 12 Tips & Predictions

The Texans are 2-0 without the injured C.J Stroud as their quarterback with Davis Mills predicted to keep the Texans in the fight in primetime as the Texans cover at home as the 5.5-point underdog.

Houston’s season looked over with the Texans at 3-5 and their QB1 Stroud missing two consecutive matches due to concussion. However, Davis Mills has stepped up leading Houston to two very different wins, beating Jacksonville in a shootout and the Titans in a defensive battle.

The Texans’ defence is the best in the business and will also do their gigantic part in keeping Houston in the match against what is an inconsistent Bills team. Josh Allen has been phenomenal, however has not protected the ball well this season, with a pick in 5 of his last 7 matches. The Texans average a pick a game so that is a market I will be on here.

On the other side, Davis has been averaging over 250 yards passing in his two starts and has managed to move the ball, despite being behind an ordinary offensive line. A below par offensive line will mean that Davis will need to be on his wheels against the Buffalo defence and will go over his rushing total of 6.5 yards. The Buffalo defence is averaging 26 yards on the ground by opposing quarterbacks which gives more weight to this pick.

Defence should prevail in this one, holding the game total to the under again in a Houston match, which also leans into the Texans covering as 5.5-point dogs.

Houston are 3-2 at home with their two losses being by 3 points or less.
Josh Allen has thrown 7 interceptions in his last 7 matches.
Davis Mills has had 14 & 10 rushing yards in his two starts this season.
7 of 10 Houston matches have had a game total less than 43.5 points.

Head to Head Record

All Time Record

Houston Texans lead all-time series 7-5.

Most Recent Matchup

Date	Result
Oct 6, 2024	BUF 20 @ HOU 23

Statistical Rankings

Stat	BUF	HOU
Points Scored/Game	29.2 (4th)	22.0 (21st)
Points Allowed/Game	22.9 (14th)	16.3 (1st)
Pass Yds/Game	239 (8th)	222 (16th)
Rush Yds/Game	147 (1st)	107 (23rd)
Def. Pass Yds/Game	169 (2nd)	171 (3rd)
Def. Rush Yds/Game	153 (31st)	87 (3rd)

Buffalo Bills Form

The Bills certainly didn't have all their own way in their 44-32 win over Tampa Bay in Week 11, however, they finished with a wet sail with their leader Josh Allen running in two touchdowns (3 rushing TDs + 3 passing TDs) in the fourth quarter to ensure the victory for Buffalo.

What do you say about the Bills, their QB Allen is the savior as their defence once again struggled to contain the run and passing game from the backfield as Sean Tucker tore them apart with 106 rushing + 34 receiving yards accompanied by 3 total touchdowns.

The Buffalo defence is the second-worst in the NFL allowing their opposition 5.4 yards per rush, giving up an average of 153 yards on the ground per game. There offence is lit though and is keeping them in the fight with the Patriots in the AFC East with not only Allen cooking but James Cook and the run game rolling with 147.6 yards per game, the second-most in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Away	Home
BUF	7-3-0	5-5-0	5-5-0	2-2-0	5-1-0

Houston Texans Form

The Texans will likely once again be without QB1 C.J Stroud who is still under concussion protocol heading into Thursday night Football against the Bills.

Davis Mills has been behind centre for the previous two matches against Jacksonville 36-29 and Tennessee 16-13, both resulting in victories to the Texans. Mills has thrown for an average of 283 yards in his 2 starts this season, with 43 attempts per game and a completion rate of 61.7%.

Houston have leaned heavily on their defence to get them back to 50 percent with a 5-5 record this season leaking the least amount of points of any team in the NFL giving up just 16.3 points per game. The Texans also rank first with just 258.1 opposition yards per game, ranked third in both opposition passing and rushing yards.

Houston Texans Betting Trends

Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Away	Home
HOU	5-5-0	4-6-0	3-6-1	2-3-0	3-2-0

Verdict

BUF Bills @ HOU Texans

The Texans will cover as the 5.5-point underdog in a match that stays under 43.5 points. Josh Allen will throw an interceptions and Davis Mills will rush for over 6.5 yards.

Houston +5.5

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Josh Allen

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