South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL26 Round 16 Tips - Wildcats Tipped to Catch Phoenix in Let Down Spot

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 09 Jan 2026 09:33

Ryan Tucker 09 Jan 2026

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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 16 NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 8:00 PM AEDT at State Basketball Centre
Perth Wildcats predicted to win after strategic prep.
Phoenix may struggle post-emotional OT game.
Take Perth to cover the +4 line as underdogs.

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL26 Round 16 Tips

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips

The third of four meetings between the Phoenix and Wildcats will take place at the State Basketball Centre this Saturday night with Perth tipped to claw one back after going down in the two previous matchups.

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
Perth Wildcats Form & Team News
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats Frequently Asked Questions

SE Melbourne have a quick turnaround after defeating the Hawks in OT on Thursday. They stay in the same building but will enter off a game that demanded a lot of energy and emotions from their star players. Tensions fired late in the game with Nathan Sobey, Wes Iwundu and John Brown all involved. This is a bit of a let down spot against a team coming in fresh.

Perth have not played at home since the 18th of December but have had a relatively calm travel schedule. They will have earmarked this game as important to win to finish off their longest road trip of the season and help them to climb into a top 4 spot in the standings.

South East Melbourne won both prior matchups this season but had to come from behind to do it after allowing Perth to take a first quarter lead. The Wildcats capitulated in the 4th quarter of both matches, essentially handing the victories to the Phoenix. Expect the coaching to be more focused and the players to stamp out any fast finishing. SEM coming off a highly emotional OT battle just 2 days prior may not have the juice to claw back another win.

Take Perth to win and cover the +4 line as the road underdog while also covering the 1st quarter. Kristian Doolittle over his Points, Assists & Rebounds total of 26.5.

The earlier matchups this season were decided by 1pt and 5pts with Perth having been in control for the majority of both matches.
The Underdog has covered in this matchup in 3 of the last 4 games.
SEM are 4-3 on 2 days rest.
SEM have lost 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 first quarters, Perth won both first quarters in the earlier matchups this season.
Kristian Doolittle has covered this number in 3 of his last 4 games vs SEM and 3 of the 4 games on this road trip.

Head to Head

Last 5 Match Results

Date	Home Team	Score	Line	Total Points
18/12/2025	PER	SEM 77-76	SEM +1.5	U 184.5
02/11/2025	SEM	SEM 94-89	PER +5.5	U 185.5
11/02/2025	PER	PER 122-105	PER -5.5	O 202.5
31/01/2025	PER	PER 100-99	SEM +4.5	U 207.0
15/11/2024	PER	PER 97-84	PER -4.0	O 180.0

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

SEM Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	PER Def
98.9	1	PPG	3	86.3
41.7	8	RPG	3	40.9
43.3%	10	FG%	1	43.4%
34.7%	2	3P%	6	32.9%
10	2	TOV	7	10.7

SEM Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	PER Off
90.6	7	PPG	6	89.1
43.4	10	RPG	2	43.3
46.8%	10	FG%	8	44.5%
34.6%	9	3P%	8	31.9%
17.6	1	TOV	5	11.6

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News

South East Melbourne recovered from another 1st quarter deficit to push their latest matchup to OT, eventually getting a 124-113 win over the Illawarra Hawks, taking the season series and equalling their franchise record for most points in a game.

Nathan Sobey led the way with 37 pts on 13-26 shooting despite being unusually stingy from deep, sinking just 3-13 from out wide. He even threw in a few dunks for good measure. Angus Glover had 22 pts off the bench with both teams looking to their deep rosters to fill the score sheet.

SEM had just 5 turnovers in the game yet forced 18 from the Hawks which allowed them to keep in touch despite shooting just 18% from 3pt range in the first half. The Phoenix have now won 3 in a row and sit outright 2nd, 1.5 games ahead of Melbourne United.

Perth Wildcats Form & Team News

Perth will play their final game of a long 5 game road trip which started on December 21st in Tasmania. They have gone 3-1 on the trip, the most recent outing being a victory over the Breakers in New Zealand 99-91 last weekend.

Perth controlled the tempo for much of the game despite giving up 18 turnovers, well above their season average of 11.6 per game. Kristian Doolittle scored 21 pts while 5 other players on the team also reached double digits. Dylan Windler had his 6th double double of the season with 17 pts and 10 boards.

The Wildcats shot extremely well from the floor going 60% in the win, something they otherwise rank 8th in on the season with an average of 44.5% per game. Defensively they are ranked 3rd in opposition points, allowing 86.3 per outing.

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats Frequently Asked Questions

What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats start?

Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats is at 8:00 PM AEDT, Saturday, January 10

What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats on?

You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

South East Melbourne Phoenix v Perth Wildcats

Take Perth to win and cover the +4 line as the road underdog while also covering the 1st quarter. Kristian Doolittle over his Points, Assists & Rebounds total of 26.5.