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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL26 Round 16 Tips - Phoenix to Clinch Battle of the Birds Series
The South East Melbourne Phoenix are poised to secure a victory against the Illawarra Hawks in their final NBL25 meeting to solidify their top 2 position on the ladder. Despite Illawarra's recent improvements, the Phoenix's performance across the season gives them an edge. A win and covering the -5.5 line is anticipated, with the total score expected to go over and highlights expected from Angus Glover scoring 10+ points. Previous matches saw mixed outcomes, but Phoenix's overall strengths suggest they will prevail.
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 16 NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at State Basketball Centre
- Phoenix and Hawks tied in season series, each winning one game.
- Phoenix predicted to win and cover -5.5 line; game to exceed points total.
- Key player to watch: Angus Glover, expected to score 10+ points.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips
The third and final meeting of the series between the Phoenix and the Hawks with SE Melbourne tipped to get the win and solidify their top 2 spot on the ladder.
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- Last 5 Match Results
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions
The Phoenix took the first game back in October 116-76, shooting 40% from 3pt range while the Hawks had an absolutely awful night with 36.5% from the field and 6-21 from distance.
The second game back in December was a role reversal with Illawarra taking the win 113-109 in overtime. Their shooting was on fire, 62.3% from the field with QJ Peterson scoring 42 pts. SE Melbourne shot just 27.6% from distance in the loss but still were within 4 pts of the defending champs after pushing the game to OT.
Illawarra have taken a step forward since getting Sam Froling back on the floor, they are 5th in scoring, 2nd in Bench Points and have improved defensively from ranking 9th on the season to 7th across the 3 game stretch.
Despite the improvements, South East Melbourne are still the better team in almost every facet of the game and will have a world of momentum after putting the Kings to bed on Monday. Illawarra will have to shoot the lights out to even come close.
Take the Phoenix to win and cover the -5.5 line. The Game Total to go Over and Angus Glover to have a high scoring night with 10+ and 15+ pts.
- SE Melbourne won the first matchup this season by 40 pts and lost the 2nd by 4 pts despite 62%-35% FG percentage difference.
- Both teams are ranked bottom 4 in opposition points over the last 3 games. The Game Total has gone over in the matchup in 3 straight games.
- Angus Glover scored 26pts and 15pts in the two previous games against the Hawks this season.
- Illawarra give up the 3rd most bench points to opponents this season.
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | ILL | ILL 113-109 | ILL -1.0 | O 191.0 |
| 18/10/2025 | SEM | SEM 116-76 | SEM -2.0 | O 185.5 |
| 05/03/2025 | ILL | ILL 126-96 | ILL -6.5 | O 197.5 |
| 02/03/2025 | SEM | SEM 101-94 | SEM +2.5 | U 196.5 |
| 28/02/2025 | ILL | ILL 101-94 | ILL -6.5 | U 197.0 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| SEM Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | ILL Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96.5 | 1 | PPG | 9 | 95.6 |
| 41.2 | 8 | RPG | 7 | 42.4 |
| 42.8% | 10 | FG% | 3 | 43.6% |
| 34.5% | 2 | 3P% | 9 | 34.2% |
| 10.4 | 3 | TOV | 9 | 10.2 |
| SEM Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | ILL Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.3 | 5 | PPG | 6 | 89 |
| 43.6 | 10 | RPG | 1 | 45.1 |
| 45.9% | 8 | FG% | 3 | 45.7% |
| 33.5% | 8 | 3P% | 8 | 31.5% |
| 18 | 1 | TOV | 9 | 14.3 |
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne went 2 from 2 in Round 15 with a comprehensive victory over the Cairns Taipans 111-96 followed by a nailbiting 124-117 win over the Sydney Kings. The victory cementing them into 2nd spot on the ladder with a 15-7 record, half a game in front of Melbourne United.
As has been the trend for SE Melbourne recently, they dropped the first quarter to their opponent, this one very high scoring 35-31. They then rallied with sharp shooting from beyond the arc 42.5% led by Nathan Sobey (26pts) and Jordan Hunter (23pts) to close the gap and take the lead.
The Phoenix ability to share the ball, get to the bucket while also stretching the defence to the perimeter is a key factor to their high scoring and positive win record. They also take care of the ball at an elite level, ranking 3rd in turnovers.
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
Illawarra recorded their second straight win on Saturday for just the 2nd time this season and the first since their back to back wins in Round 8. The 96-78 victory over Cairns followed a 92-90 win over Tasmania just 3 days earlier.
The wins keep them in touch with the top 6 but they are still 3 wins behind Tasmania with the same amount of losses. 9 of their remaining 12 games are against top 6 teams.
Illawarra have been a different team offensively since getting Sam Froling back in the lineup. Now with Tyler Harvey fit again, they can start to put their best foot forward on the offensive end where they currently rank 6th on the season.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions
What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks start?
Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, January 8
What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks on?
You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
Take the Phoenix to win and cover the -5.5 line. The Game Total to go Over and Angus Glover to have a high scoring night with 10+ and 15+ pts.
SE Melbourne -5.5
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Over 187.5
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A Glover 10+
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