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Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 16 Tips - Hawks glide past tumbling Breakers

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Sat 10 Jan 2026 06:45

Jeremy Darke 10 Jan 2026

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Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 16 NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks are on an upward trajectory with key player Sam Froling leading the charge.
New Zealand Breakers suffer poor season form, highlighted by a 41-point loss to Sydney.

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 16 Tips

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips

The Hawks are on the up and the Breakers are crashing down making this one a simple call to back Illawarra at home on Sunday afternoon.

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips
Head to Head
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Frequently Asked Questions

Since the return of Sam Froling the Hawks have started to look more like the championship team they were in NBL25 and if they are any shot of having a chance to defend their title in the playoffs they will almost need to win-out from here.

The Breakers on the other hand are tumbling their way through the season and have never looked worse than they did against Sydney on Friday night.

Illawarra have scored 90+ points in their last 3 games with Froling contributing 16 points or more in all three of those contests. The Hawks centre is building more confidence and we can expect another strong performance from their champion big.

The Breakers have not defended the three-ball well of late and Q.J. Peterson has been lighting it up from the perimeter all season and especially of late, going 10 of 22 in his last 3 matches as well.

Take the Hawks to win and cover, Froling for 15+ and Peterson for 3+ threes.

Illawarra have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against New Zealand
Sam Froling has scored 15+ points in his last 3 matches.
New Zealand are last in the NBL with a 28.8 3P%.
Q.J. Peterson has made 3+ threes in4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head

Last 5 Match Results

Date	Home Team	Score	Line	Total Points
31/10/2025	ILL	NZB 102-60	NZB +7.5	U 185.0
08/10/2025	NZB	NZB 117-88	NZB +5.5	O 179.0
05/02/2025	NZB	ILL 96-82	ILL -8.5	U 189.0
11/01/2025	ILL	ILL 108-100	NZB +15.0	O 186.5
28/11/2024	ILL	ILL 109-71	ILL -5.5	O 175.0

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

ILL Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	NZB Def
90.1	5	PPG	6	90
45.3	1	RPG	6	42.2
46.1%	2	FG%	7	45.7%
32.4%	6	3P%	3	31.0%
14.5	9	TOV	4	12.3

ILL Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	NZB Off
96.9	10	PPG	7	87.5
42.7	8	RPG	3	42.5
43.7%	3	FG%	8	44.3%
34.0%	8	3P%	10	28.7%
10	9	TOV	6	12

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News

Illawarra are still holding on for dear life after they were a whisker away from turning 2 straight wins into a 3-game run after sending their match against South East Melbourne into overtime. Unfortunately for Hawks fans the extra period didn’t pan out so well with Nathan Sobey lighting them up, eventually going down 124-113.

The lead changed a record amount of times in the match and the Hawks played well above their weight, shooting at 52.2 3P% (32.6 3P% avg) and 50.9% from the field to keep up with the best scoring team in the league.

Since the return of Sam Froling to the Illawarra lineup, they have been a different side and proved on Thursday that they can mix it with the big guns of the NBL. The questions is if it is a little too late needing 4 more wins to catch Tasmania in sixth spot.

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News

What a disaster. The Breakers came up against an undermanned Sydney Kings outfit at home and lost by 41 points after a record breaking 4 points scored in the second quarter.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright went 1-from-9 from the field and the whole New Zealand team shot at just 33.8 FG% and an awful 16.2 3P%. Sam Mennenga has been one of the standouts for the Breakers and he also struggled to sink buckets going 2-from-8 in the match.

With ten games left and chasing 4 more wins if Tasmania loses out, the season is all but over for the New Zealand Breakers.

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers start?

Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, January 11

What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers on?

You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Illawarra Hawks v New Zealand Breakers

Take the Hawks to win and cover, Froling for 15+ and Peterson for 3+ threes.

Illawarra -5.5

Handicap/Line

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