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Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 16 Tips - Hawks glide past tumbling Breakers

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Sat 10 Jan 2026 06:45

In this highly anticipated NBL25 Round 16 matchup, the Illawarra Hawks are predicted to secure a victory against the New Zealand Breakers. With Sam Froling's return, the Hawks have regained their championship form, scoring over 90 points in recent games. Meanwhile, the Breakers have struggled defensively, especially against the three-point shot, which Q.J. Peterson has capitalized on. Fans can expect the Hawks to continue their winning momentum at home, with recommendations to back the Hawks, expect Froling to score 15+ points, and Peterson to nail 3+ three-pointers.

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Jeremy Darke 10 Jan 2026
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  • Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 16 NBL matchup
  • Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
  • Illawarra Hawks are on an upward trajectory with key player Sam Froling leading the charge.
  • New Zealand Breakers suffer poor season form, highlighted by a 41-point loss to Sydney.
Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 16 Tips

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers NBL25 Round 16 Expert Tips


The Hawks are on the up and the Breakers are crashing down making this one a simple call to back Illawarra at home on Sunday afternoon.

Since the return of Sam Froling the Hawks have started to look more like the championship team they were in NBL25 and if they are any shot of having a chance to defend their title in the playoffs they will almost need to win-out from here.

The Breakers on the other hand are tumbling their way through the season and have never looked worse than they did against Sydney on Friday night. 

Illawarra have scored 90+ points in their last 3 games with Froling contributing 16 points or more in all three of those contests. The Hawks centre is building more confidence and we can expect another strong performance from their champion big. 

The Breakers have not defended the three-ball well of late and Q.J. Peterson has been lighting it up from the perimeter all season and especially of late, going 10 of 22 in his last 3 matches as well.

Take the Hawks to win and cover, Froling for 15+ and Peterson for 3+ threes.

  • Illawarra have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against New Zealand
  • Sam Froling has scored 15+ points in his last 3 matches.
  • New Zealand are last in the NBL with a 28.8 3P%.
  • Q.J. Peterson has made 3+ threes in4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head 


Last 5 Match Results
DateHome TeamScoreLineTotal Points
31/10/2025ILLNZB 102-60NZB +7.5U 185.0
08/10/2025NZBNZB 117-88NZB +5.5O 179.0
05/02/2025NZBILL 96-82ILL -8.5U 189.0
11/01/2025ILLILL 108-100NZB +15.0O 186.5
28/11/2024ILLILL 109-71ILL -5.5O 175.0

Offensive & Defensive Rankings
ILL OffRankStatRankNZB Def
90.15PPG690
45.31RPG642.2
46.1%2FG%745.7%
32.4%63P%331.0%
14.59TOV412.3

ILL DefRankStatRankNZB Off
96.910PPG787.5
42.78RPG342.5
43.7%3FG%844.3%
34.0%83P%1028.7%
109TOV612

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News


Illawarra are still holding on for dear life after they were a whisker away from turning 2 straight wins into a 3-game run after sending their match against South East Melbourne into overtime. Unfortunately for Hawks fans the extra period didn’t pan out so well with Nathan Sobey lighting them up, eventually going down 124-113.

The lead changed a record amount of times in the match and the Hawks played well above their weight, shooting at 52.2 3P% (32.6 3P% avg) and 50.9% from the field to keep up with the best scoring team in the league. 

Since the return of Sam Froling to the Illawarra lineup, they have been a different side and proved on Thursday that they can mix it with the big guns of the NBL. The questions is if it is a little too late  needing 4 more wins to catch Tasmania in sixth spot.

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News


What a disaster. The Breakers came up against an undermanned Sydney Kings outfit at home and lost by 41 points after a record breaking 4 points scored in the second quarter.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright went 1-from-9 from the field and the whole New Zealand team shot at just 33.8 FG% and an awful 16.2 3P%. Sam Mennenga has been one of the standouts for the Breakers and he also struggled to sink buckets going 2-from-8 in the match.

With ten games left and chasing 4 more wins if Tasmania loses out, the season is all but over for the New Zealand Breakers.

Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers start?

Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, January 11

What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers on?

You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Take the Hawks to win and cover, Froling for 15+ and Peterson for 3+ threes.
Best Bet1: Illawarra -5.5 Handicap/Line $1.91 at Elitebet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Sam Froling 15+ Player Points $1.58 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Q.J Peterson 3+ Three Pointers $1.87 at betr - 3 Units
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