New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips - Hawks put one hand on Minor Premiership but Breakers to cover in loss

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Mon 03 Feb 2025 14:28

Ryan Tucker 03 Feb 2025

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New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks expert predictions for Wednesday’s Round 20 NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at Spark Arena
Illawarra Hawks to defeat NZ Breakers, strengthening their bid for minor premiership.
Breakers to stand up defensively and cover the line in final home game.
Hawks' high energy and scoring ability make them a top contender for playoffs.

Ryan gives his two cents on the final matchup for the New Zealand Breakers in NBL25.

New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips

The Breakers will close out their tumultuous season with a final loss at home to the Illawarra Hawks who will move one step closer to the minor premiership with the win.

New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips
Head to Head
2024/25 Match Results
2023/24 Season Series
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions

Illawarra have won 3 straight over the New Zealand Breakers and momentum is clearly lacking for the home team who have won just 3 of their last 18 games. Matt Mooney busted out in their most recent win over Cairns but the Breakers are unlikely to repeat a 61% effort from the field even against the 6th ranked Illawarra defence. They have struggled for most of the season to score points and with Parker Jackson-Cartwright out, opposition defences are able to target players like Mooney, Sam Mennenga or Mojave King who are thrust into the scoring spotlight.

For Illawarra they will be wanting to take some momentum with them into the play-offs considering the long break that could await them with the FIBA break between the play-in and semi finals. They have been a high energy team all season with effective scoring all over the court. They scored 109 and 108 points in the two previous games against NZ this season but with the Breakers now playing their final game and in front of their home crowd you can expect some harder defence.

Take Illawarra to go Under their team total with New Zealand showing up for their home fans. I don’t think the Breakers win but the large line on offer provides some value on the underdog to cover.

Illawarra are 0-3 ATS as double digit favourites this season. NZ are 1-1 as double digit underdogs.
Double digit Underdogs are 7-4 ATS this season in the NBL.
The Breakers are 5-2 at Spark Arena this season, both losses being by 10 or less.
Illawarra average 100 pts per game in 11 matchups against the top 4 defensive teams this season.

Head to Head

2024/25 Match Results

Jan 11th 25: Illawarra 109-71 New Zealand

Nov 28th 24: Illawarra 108-100 New Zealand

2023/24 Season Series

Illawarra Hawks won 2-1

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

NZB Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	ILL Def
85.8	9	PPG	6	92.1
39.3	9	RPG	3	40.1
47.5%	2	FG%	2	44.4%
32.6%	10	3P%	3	34.5%
13.3	10	TOV	4	12

NZB Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	ILL Off
91.2	3	PPG	1	101.9
37.1	1	RPG	1	43.9
46.2%	7	FG%	1	49.0%
36.0%	7	3P%	4	35.7%
9.4	10	TOV	1	9.7

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News

New Zealand have had one of the bigger rollercoaster seasons of any team this year. After being the only team to travel to the US for NBA pre-season matchups they came back and continued their dominant style of play winning a total of 7 of their first 10 games to sit atop the NBL standings.

Then the wheels fell off, 8 straight losses turned into a 3-15 record heading into the final round of NBL25 with suspensions, roster changes and injuries all playing their part in the demise of the New Zealand Breakers.

With rumours swirling around which players will remain with the team for next year there will be some opportunities for players to stake their claim in the last game of the season in front of coach Koponen. NZ are the 3rd ranked defensive team in the league allowing an average of 91.2 pts per game to opponents on the season and have restricted opposing teams to the lowest number of rebounds per game in their matchups.

Sadly things have not gone as well as they had hoped offensively with the team ranked 9th in scoring with 85.8 pts per game, one of only three teams to have an average under 90 points.

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News

The Hawks took care of business on the road in Tassie last week beating up on the defending champions 102-78, the victory their 4th straight when scoring 100+ points.

Illawarra sit atop the NBL standings with one less loss than the 2nd placed Melbourne United who have also played an extra game. They also have a far superior point differential meaning that one win out of their final two games will secure the minor premiership for the team.

The Hawks have been the best scoring team all season long and head into the final round of the regular season averaging 101.9 pts per game with the highest number of rebounds per game at 43.9 aswell as the league’s best FG% at 49%.

On the other end of the court the defensive numbers have fallen off given the high scores in the Illawarra games. The team is ranked 6th, allowing 92.1 pts per game to opponents on the season.

New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions

What time does New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks start?

Tip-off between New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Wednesday 5th February

What channel is New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks on?

You can watch New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

New Zealand Breakers v Illawarra Hawks

Take Illawarra to go Under their team total with New Zealand showing up for their home fans. I don’t think the Breakers win but the large line on offer provides some value on the underdog to cover.