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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hailey Baptiste Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alexandrova to make Abu Dhabi final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu. 05 Feb. 2026 22:52

Andrew Hendrie 05 Feb. 2026

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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hailey Baptiste predictions for Friday's WTA Abu Dhabi semi-final
Alexandrova equipped with dominant record vs players outside the top 50
Alexandrova has won more WTA 500 matches than any other player since the start of 2025
Baptiste tipped to struggle with a 2-15 career-record vs top 15 opponents
The match is scheduled to start at 1.00am AEDT on Saturday February 7

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Ekaterina Alexandrova (Photo by Getty Images)

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hailey Baptiste Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Second seed Ekaterina Alexandrova targets the Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open final when she faces wildcard Hailey Baptiste in the semi-finals on Friday.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hayley Baptiste Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alexandrova vs Baptiste Stats & Trends
Alexandrova vs Baptiste Head To Head
Ekaterina Alexandrova Form Analysis
Hayley Baptiste Form Analysis
Alexandrova vs Baptiste Live Stream

Alexandrova has cruised into the semi-finals in Abu Dhabi this week, not dropping more than three games in a set. The Russian surged into the top 10 on the back of a career-best season in 2025 and now she's got an excellent opportunity to secure WTA 500 silverware over the next couple of days. Alexandrova fired 33 winners in two sets of tennis to subdue Alex Eala in the quarter-finals and is the deserved favourite in this clash.

Baptiste has put together an excellent week as a wildcard, but she has a poor record against top 15 players and Alexandrova has consistently put away opponents outside the top 50 in recent times - especially at WTA 500 level. I'm tipping Alexandrova to cover her -4.5 games line in victory.

Alexandrova vs Baptiste Stats & Trends

Alexandrova has won 18 of her last 21 matches vs players outside the top 50
Alexandrova has covered a -4.5 games line in 12 of the last 13 of those victories
Alexandrova hasn't dropped more than three games in a set this week in Abu Dhabi
Alexandrova beat Baptiste 6-1 6-1 in their only previous meeting
Alexandrova has won 25 WTA 500 matches since the start of 2025 - more than any other player
Baptiste has a 2-15 career record vs top 15 players
Baptiste has failed to cover a +4.5 games line in four of her last five defeats vs top 15 players
Baptiste has never made a final above W60 level in her career

Alexandrova vs Baptiste Head To Head

Alexandrova leads 1-0, completely dismantling Baptiste 6-1 6-1 in Wuhan in 2024.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Winner	Score
2024	Wuhan Open	Hard	Ekaterina Alexandrova	6–1, 6–1

Ekaterina Alexandrova Form Analysis

2026 Record: 3-3
WTA Abu Dhabi Record: 4-1
Current Ranking: No. 11
Career-High Ranking: No. 10 (Oct 2025)

Road to WTA Abu Dhabi semi-finals

Round	Opponent	Score
First Round	Bye	—
Second Round	Dayana Yastremska	6–3, 6–0
Quarter-Final	Alexandra Eala	6–3, 6–3

Alexandrova compiled a career-best year in 2025, capturing her fifth WTA title in Linz and backing it up with appearances in three additional finals. That sustained level of performance was enough to lift her into the world’s top 10 for the first time.

The early stages of 2026, however, have been far less convincing. Alexandrova exited in the second round in Brisbane before enduring consecutive opening-match defeats in Adelaide and at the Australian Open, falling to Jaqueline Cristian and Zeynep Sonmez.

A first-round bye in Abu Dhabi offered a reset, and she took full advantage, rediscovering her rhythm with a dominant display against Dayana Yastremska, dropping only three games in a one-sided victory.

Alexandrova backed that performance up with another dominant display against Alex Eala, silencing the partisan Filipino crowd with a 6-3 6-3 triumph.

"She was fighting 'til the end," Alexandrova said post-match.

"I knew it was going to be difficult but I think the atmosphere was amazing today. The crowd, I know they were cheering for her but I think the atmosphere was great. So I enjoyed my time on the court, and I'm happy I could finish in two sets because it was really difficult in the end."

Hailey Baptiste Form Analysis

2026 Record: 5-3
WTA Abu Dhabi Record: 3-0
Current Ranking: No. 56
Career-High Ranking: No. 47 (Aug 2025)

Road to WTA Abu Dhabi semi-finals

Round	Opponent	Score
First Round	Teodora Kostovic	4–6, 6–3, 6–4
Second Round	Emma Navarro	7–6(6), 0–6, 6–3
Quarter-Final	Liudmila Samsonova	6–2, 4–6, 6–4

Baptiste will break into the world's top 40 for the first time after this tournament.

The American has demonstrated an ability to peak at the big tournaments, reaching the fourth round of Roland Garros and third round of Wimbledon last year.

The 24-year-old again enjoyed a nice slam run at the Australian Open, reaching the third round and taking a set off Coco Gauff before going down.

Baptiste has taken two top 20 scalps so far in her career-best week in Abu Dhabi, conquering Emma Navarro and Liudmila Samonsova. All three of her matches have gone to a deciding set, which could result in some fatigue for this semi-final battle.

Alexandrova vs Baptiste Live Stream

Watch and bet on Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hailey Baptiste live tennis from Abu Dhabi.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > WTA Abu Dhabi with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Ekaterina Alexandrova v Hailey Baptiste

Alexandrova is the most prolific WTA 500 player on tour & she's won 18 of her last 21 matches vs players outside the top 50 - she's tipped to cover in victory again here.

Alexandrova -4.5

Games Line

$1.92 - 3 Units

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