UEFA Nations League 2026/27

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France vs Italy UEFA Nations League Tips & Prediction - France to continue recent dominance over Italy

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri. 02 Oct. 2026 08:02

Andrew Hendrie 02 Oct. 2026

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France vs Italy predictions for Fridays' Nations League game
France with four wins from last five vs Italy, favourites in Paris
Michael Olise on fire, has registered a goal or assist in seven of last nine games
The game is scheduled for kick off at 4.45am AEST on Saturday October 3

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France vs Italy UEFA Nations League Tips & Prediction

France have won four of their last five meetings with Italy and are backed for a home win with Over 2.5 goals when the two European heavyweights square off in Paris on Friday night in the Nations League.

France vs Italy UEFA Nations League Tips & Prediction
France vs Italy Stats & Trends
France vs Italy Head To Head
France Form Analysis
France Team News
Italy Form Analysis
Italy Team News

Intriguing encounter here between two of the continents traditional footballing powerhouses.

Of course the biggest talking point ahead of the match is Zinedine Zidane managing for the first time against Italy after he was infamously sent off in his final game as a player in the 2006 World Cup final.

Italy got the chocolates on that day, but they've somehow missed qualifying for three World Cups since, while France won football's biggest prize in 2018 and backed it up with a runner-up showing in 2022 and semi-final earlier this year, where they fell victim to Spain.

So this is a highly-anticipated showdown, with both teams bringing winning momentum into this clash - Les Bleus have won both Nations League games this window 1-0, while Italy are coming off a thumping 4-1 victory over Turkey.

I believe this game will be more open than France's previous two Nations League outings, while Italy have conceded a total of 5.50xG in their two games and look vulnerable at the back.

France should be too strong in the capital, while Michael Olise looks primed for another goal involvement, with the Bayern superstar in scintillating form.

France vs Italy Stats & Trends

France have won four of the last five meetings, with all five seeing Over 2.5 goals
France have won nine of their last 11 games
Italy lost 2-0 vs Belgium this Nations League & have conceded 5.50xG across their two games
Michael Olise has registered a goal or assist in seven of his nine games for club & country this season, while he also had seven assists at the World Cup

France vs Italy Head To Head

Italy have won 20 out of 41 meetings with France, but it's Les Bleus who have been dominant lately, winning four of the last five.

France Form Analysis

France were firing on all cylinders at the World Cup, but their star-studded attack couldn't find a way past Spain as they were humbled 2-0 in the semi-finals.

Zidane has taken over from Didier Deschamps and overseen a pair of 1-0 victories over Turkey and Belgium to launch his managerial career with the national side.

Kylian Mbappe scored the winner against Turkey before being forced off with a knee injury, while Michael Olise came off the bench to net a late winner in the 88th minute against Belgium, assisted by Rayan Cherki.

France Team News

Italy-based pair Andy Diouf and Lucas Da Cunha were handed debuts in the win over Belgium, while Rennes striker Esteban Lepau started up front.

Zidane could make a number of changes again, with Olise and Ousmane Dembele likely to come back into the starting side.

France Possible Starting XI (4-3-3): Mike Maignan; Pierre Kalulu, Dayot Upamecano, Maxence Lacroix, Adrien Truffert; Rayan Cherki, Manu Kone, Adrien Rabiot; Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue

Italy Form Analysis

Another shocking World Cup qualification campaign for Italy as they crashed out in the playoffs to Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Roberto Mancini is back for his second tenure with the national team and after a disappointing 2-0 loss to Belgium, he got his side humming in attack with a 4-1 demolition of Turkey.

Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito all got on the scoresheet as Italy ran riot in attack, but after facing 34 shots across their opening two games, defence is still a work in progress.

Italy Team News

Pio Esposito has now scored six goals in 11 internationals for Italy after starting last time out alongside brother Sebastiano.

Moise Kean and Gianluca Scamacca will be battling to force their way into the starting side up front for this one.

Italy Possible Starting XI (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Nicolo Barella, Nicolo Fagioli, Sandro Tonali; Sebastiano Esposito, Pio Esposito, Nicolo Cambiaghi

Verdict

France v Italy

France are backed for a home win with Over 2.5 goals. Olise the most likely to get amongst the goals.

Michael Olise

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