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South Melbourne vs Lions FC Australia Cup Tips & Prediction - NPL clubs clash for maiden cup final

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
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Last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026 04:14

The Australia Cup semi-final clash between South Melbourne and Lions FC is set to be a tight contest. South Melbourne may have the edge in pedigree, coming from the strong NPL Victoria, but their recent form is shaky after a semi-final loss. Lions FC, meanwhile, are on a dream run, having won four trophies this season and knocked out A-League opponents. The recommended bet is Under 3.5 goals, as both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring. Lions FC offer strong upset value in Double Chance and Head-to-Head markets.

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  • South Melbourne vs Lions FC predictions for Tuesday's Australia Cup semi-final
  • Lions coming off domestic quadruple in Queensland, hold value as underdogs
  • Both teams trending Under 3.5 goals - close game expected here
  • The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.30pm AEST on Tuesday September 15
South Melbourne Lions FC


South Melbourne vs Lions FC Australia Cup Tips & Prediction


Under 3.5 goals is the best bet for this all-NPL Australia Cup semi-final on Tuesday, with Lions FC holding the value against a South Melbourne side reeling from a semi-final exit in the NPL Vic on the weekend.

South Melbourne are probably the better football team and NPL Victoria is arguably the strongest national league in the country - much stronger than NPL Queensland overall.

However, Lions FC have proven they are a force to be reckoned with in 2026 and as $5.00 outsiders, they represent great value in both the Double Chance and H2H markets.

The Lions are coming off a dream quadruple this season, winning a third consecutive Queensland NPL title, along with the Kappa Pro Series, NPL QLD Premiership and Kappa Queensland Cup. They have also knocked A-League sides Melbourne City and Perth Glory out of the Australia Cup.

Meanwhile, South Melbourne have lost three of their last five games heading into this contest, including a 2-1 defeat to Oakleigh Cannons in the NPL Victoria semi-finals on the weekend.

So the Lions are backed for at least a draw and are good value for the upset, but Under 3.5 total goals is the main play in what is shaping as a close contest in one of the biggest games in each club's history.
  • South Melbourne have seen Under 3.5 goals in 13 of their last 14 games in all comps
  • Lions have seen Under 3.5 goals in nine of their last 12 games
  • Lions have seen Under 3.5 goals in two of their three Australia Cup games
  • Lions have won 17 of their last 18 games in all comps

South Melbourne vs Lions FC Head To Head

This will be the first meeting between the two clubs.

South Melbourne Form Analysis

South Melbourne are into the Australia Cup semi-finals for the second time after a 2017 exit at this stage to Sydney FC.

Sinisa Cohadzic's side began their tournament with a 2-1 upset over A-League club and three-time winners Adelaide United before edging out Fremantle on penalties in the R16 and Preston Lions 2-1 in the quarter-finals.

The Hellas came from behind to beat an in-form Preston, with Jack Painter-Andrews equalising before Arran Cocks 88th-minute winner.

However, South Melbourne have lost two of their three games since, including a 2-1 defeat to NPL Victoria minor premiers Oakleigh in the semi-finals this past weekend.

South Melbourne Team News

South Melbourne Possible Starting XI (3-4-3): Javier Díaz López, Thomas Giannakopoulos, Marco Janković, Hassan Ramazani, Jack Painter-Andrews, Sebastian Pasquali, Paulo Retre, Arran Cocks, David Seung-ho, YooYuki Uchida, Bul Juach

Lions FC Form Analysis

It's been a dream season for Lions - they've landed the quadruple and further established themselves as the best team NPL team in Queensland.

The Lions captured their third straight NPL trophy with a narrow 1-0 victory over rivals Peninsula this past weekend, with Fred Oyet scoring a dramatic 93rd minute winner.

Dan Barber's side have also secured the Kappa Pro Series, NPL QLD Premiership and Kappa Queensland Cup silverware in a dominant season domestically.

But the Lions have transferred that form onto the national stage, advancing to their first Australia Cup semi-final in impressive fashion, knockout out A-League sides Perth Glory and Melbourne City before a crushing 4-0 quarter-final triumph over North Sunshine Eagles.

Lions FC Team News

Lions FC Possible Starting XI (3-4-3): Jacson Riley, Zane North, Cher Deng, Tommy Jarrad, Jackson Hart-Phillips, Rahmat Akbari, Shaun Carlos, Eremugo Debele, Mitchell Hore, Luke Broderick, Finn Beakhurst

Verdict

Under 3.5 goals is the best bet, with Lions holding the value.

Best Bet1: Under 3.5 Total Goals $1.50 at picklebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Lions Win or Draw Double Chance $2.30 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Lions Win H2H $5.00 at dabble - 1 Unit
Under 3.5
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