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Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Predictions - Victory to win A-League Grand Final
It's set to be an electrifying A-League Grand Final as Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory face off in a sold-out showdown at AAMI Park. City overcame numerous injuries to reach the final, while Victory bounced back from a mid-season managerial change. Despite City's solid defense, Victory's strong recent derby record makes them the favorites, with Nishan Velupillay tipped to make a scoring impact. Expect a tight match as both teams vie for the championship. All eyes will be on Victory's attacking prowess as they attempt to claim another Grand Final win.
- Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory predictions for Saturday's A-League Grand Final
- Victory are unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the teams dating back to 2023
- City have lost three of their last four Grand Finals
- City manager Aurelio Vidmar has never beaten Victory in seven previous meetings
- Nishan Velupilay scored first vs City earlier this season & leads the scoring for Victory this term
- The match is scheduled for kick off at 7.40pm AEST on Saturday May 31 at AAMI Park
Expired
City and Victory clash in the Grand Final on Saturday (Photo Getty Images)
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Predictions
It's a blockbuster A-League Grand Final on Saturday night as Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory collide in a heavyweight derby showdown at a sold-out AAMI Park.
- Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Predictions
- Head To Head
- Melbourne City Form
- Melbourne City Team News
- Melbourne Victory Form
- Melbourne Victory Team News
Bragging rights in Melbourne are on the line in the biggest occasion of them all, with both City and Victory navigating difficult regular seasons (for different reasons) to end up as the two teams left standing on Grand Final day.
City endured countless injuries to key players throughout the season, but came out the other end stronger than ever, while Victory recovered from the shock departure of Patrick Kisnorbo midway through the campaign, with Arthur Diles stepping in and guiding his side to the decider.
Nothing really separates these sides and truth be told, any two of the top seven or eight teams in the A-League this season could be featuring in the Grand Final. As such, I like to follow the value in such an even competition and Grand Final - and it all lies with Victory, who are priced around $1.70 in Double Chance markets, $2.40 to Lift The Cup and $3.25 to prevail in 90 minutes. Victory are unbeaten in all three Melbourne derbies this season and will be determined to go one step further than last season, where they suffered a heartbreaking late Grand Final defeat to the Mariners.
Often A-League matches are goal-fests, but I think a Grand Final neutralises the norm, while City's top defence has to be respected. I'm backing a narrow Victory win (1-0 or 2-0), with Nishan Velupillay tipped to open the scoring, with the Socceroos winger leading the way with seven goals for his side this season.
- Victory are unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the teams
- City haven't defeated Victory since 2023
- City have lost three of their last four Grand Finals
- City manager Aurelio Vidmar has gone winless in seven previous meetings with Victory - including the 2009 Grand Final when he was in charge of Adelaide
- Victory's last win in a Grand Final was by a 1-0 score in 2018 vs Newcastle Jets
- City have failed to score in their last five defeats
- City's last three defeats have come by 1-0 scores
- Nishan Velupillay is the joint-leading scorer for Victory this season with seven goals
- Nishan Velupillay was the first goalscorer when Victory beat City 3-1 earlier this season
Head To Head
Victory are unbeaten against City in the last seven meetings between the teams. City last defeated Victory all the way back in 2023. City have lost three of their last four Grand Finals, while Victory are chasing their fifth Grand Final triumph and first since toppling the Newcastle Jets 1-0 in 2018.
Melbourne City Form
City finished the regular season in second spot on the ladder with a 14-6-6 record, conceding just 25 goals in what ended up being the stingiest defence in the A-League.
Marco Tilio returned from injury and has been one of the form players in the competition over the last month, with the winger having a massive impact in City's run to the Grand Final.
Aurelio Vidmar's side demolished Sydney FC 5-1 in the final game of the regular season to secure second place and a week off, with the team only needing to overcome Western United to reach the Grand Final.
City were dominant over the two legs, easing to a 4-1 aggregate triumph, with the damage done in a comprehensive 3-0 win in the first leg.
Melbourne City Team News
Key players Andrew Nabbout and James Jeggo remain sidelined for the Grand Final.
Vidmar is expected to stick with the same formation that conquered Western United, with Max Caputo starting up front, with Tilio on the left and Yonatan Cohen on the right.
The experienced back four of Nathaniel Atkinson, Aziz Behich, Kai Trewin and German Ferreyra should also retain their places.
Melbourne Victory Form
It was a turbulent season at times for Victory, but they are peaking when it matters most after ending the campaign in fifth spot with a 12-7-7 record.
There was lots of controversy under Kisnorbo's tutelage, including the whole Daniel Arzani saga at the beginning of the season, but after Arthur Diles settled into his new head coaching role, the team began to click.
Arzani is playing his best football in years, while Bruno Fornaroli continues to be a key figure, starting in the crucial second leg away to minor premiers Auckland FC last week and scoring the decisive goal that saw Victory advance 2-1 on aggregate.
After dispatching the Wanderers in the elimination finals, Victory had it all to do after going down 1-0 to Auckland, but a brilliant performance across the Tasman saw the four-time Grand Final winners secure another chance for silverware.
Melbourne Victory Team News
Diles made a big call in starting Fornaroli in place of Nikos Vergos last week against Auckland and it ultimately paid massive dividends, so it wouldn't be surprising if the experienced striker retained his starting spot up front for the Grand Final.
Victory are arguably equipped with the most lethal attack in the A-League, with Arzani on the left and Velupillay on the right, while Zinedine Machach operates in the middle.
Ryan Teague produced a masterclass in midfield in the second leg against Auckland, but the key to Victory is captain and centre back Roderick Miranda, who recovered from a leg injury that caused him to miss the first leg. Miranda was immense in the second leg and will be chasing his first top-league premiership after an illustrious career.
Verdict
In what I believe to be a 50-50 Grand Final, Victory holds all the value.
Backing Victory in a low-scoring affair, with Nishan Velupillay repeating his efforts from earlier in the season and opening the scoring.
Victory
Double Chance
$1.72 - 3 Units
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Victory Win
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$3.25 - 2 Units
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Nishan Velupillay
First Goalscorer
$10.00 - 1 Unit
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Victory 1-0
Correct Score
$12.00 - 1 Unit
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