2025/26 Racing Season Review - Betfair crunch the numbers, profitable jockeys and bad beats
Betfair Exchange analysis of the 2025/26 Australian racing season shows punters received better returns compared to corporate bookmakers, with a 16% edge across Group 1 races. Melbourne Cup dominated turnover, and data highlighted the tracks and jockeys punters should target or avoid. Metro findings had James McDonald outperforming, while William Pike struggled with favourites. The volatile Autumn Carnival yielded more upsets than Spring. The review recommends punters seeking value and price efficiency should favour Betfair Exchange over traditional betting options.
- Betfair Exchange returned 16% higher Group 1 profits than corporate bookmakers
- Certain tracks & jockeys offered punters better value
- Others to avoid include William Pike
Rothfire was the biggest priced winner (Getty Images)
The 2025/26 racing season has wrapped up and Betfair Exchange hve crunched the numbers - giving us everything from average bet returns to jockeys to avoid or follow.
Betfair Australia have revealed that punters who backed winners through win markets on the Exchange have received better value than they would have with Australia's corporate bookmakers or Best Tote pricing.
Across the season’s 76 Group 1 races, 67 produced better post-commission odds on the Exchange, while a $10 winner-bet across every Group 1 would have returned $6,612 at Betfair Starting Price versus $5,681.27 using the corporate average.
That equates to roughly a 16% edge in favour of Exchange bettors.
Better Odds on Betfair
The biggest-traded race of the 2025/26 racing year was as expected with the Melbourne Cup again dominating turnover and attracting more than $10 million traded in the winner market for the third time in five seasons.
The numbers underline why the Exchange provides better odds and continues to appeal to punters looking for price efficiency rather than fixed bookmaker margins.
The season’s data suggests the Exchange repeatedly delivered superior returns when compared with mainstream corporate pricing.
Bad Beats & Market Accuracy
Bad beats happen and Betfair have revealed of the 16,891 races staged during the season, 192 runners hit $1.01 before being beaten - which is about 1% of all races.
Expanding the range to runners traded at $1.20 or shorter, 2,744 horses were beaten after reaching that price or lower.
Mucci Star was the worst offender, losing five times after trading sub-$1.20 in-play, while Tycoon Star and Snack Bar each did it three times among metro runners.
Tracks Where Short-Priced Runners Struggled
Some venues proved particularly punishing for favourite backers across the racing season, with Morphettville producing the most beaten runners after they traded at $1.20 or lower, followed by Belmont, Eagle Farm and Randwick.
Ballarat stood out as the worst regional track for short-priced runners, ahead of several better-known metro and country circuits.
That pattern reinforces the idea that even strong market support can unravel quickly depending on track profile and race shape.
Best & Worst Jockeys
Betfair have also ranked jockeys by how well they beat, or failed to beat, market expectation. Dylan Gibbons led the positive list, while Blaike McDougall finished bottom of the worst-vs-market table. Here are the tables in paste-ready format.
Best Jockeys vs Market
| Jockey | Wins | Prob. diff | Stake to win $100 | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Gibbons | 90 | 22.40 | $9,900.27 | $2,296.84 |
| Adam Sewell | 54 | 17.24 | $4,870.81 | $1,948.77 |
| Aidan Holt | 71 | 16.32 | $12,398.14 | $2,141.29 |
| Natika Riordan | 85 | 15.97 | $10,045.87 | $955.22 |
| Dylan Turner | 71 | 15.44 | $8,551.91 | $1,716.42 |
Worst Jockeys vs Market
Metro Favourites & Profits
When narrowed to the metro circuit, James McDonald ranked strongly on favourites, while William Pike posted the biggest negative result among the leading metro jockeys.
Metro Jockeys on Favourites
| Jockey | Rides on faves | Wins | Staking to win $100 | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McDonald | 153 | 67 | $11,403.09 | $1,417.00 |
| Jason Collett | 50 | 21 | $1,997.79 | $737.75 |
| Jason Holder | 31 | 16 | $2,549.39 | $731.82 |
| Logan Bates | 31 | 14 | $4,837.04 | $532.46 |
| Clint Johnston-Porter | 65 | 28 | $1,558.08 | $488.74 |
Metro Favourites by Profit
Feature-Race Trends
The Autumn Carnival produced far more upsets than the Spring Carnival, with Group 1 winners averaging a BSP of $10.51 across the season.
Spring’s average was $7.34, while Autumn returned a much higher $13.57. That confirms the late-season feature-race calendar was significantly more volatile for punters.
Shortest-Priced Group 1 Losers
| Horse | BSP |
|---|---|
| Autumn Glow | $1.36 |
| Treasurethe Moment | $1.80 |
| Getta Good Feeling | $2.06 |
| Apocalyptic | $2.12 |
| Overpass | $2.14 |
Longest-Priced Group 1 Winners
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