Panthers vs Knights NRL Predictions - 2 Value Tips + Same Game Multi Longshot for Today's Preliminary Final
The NRL Preliminary Final between Penrith Panthers and Newcastle Knights sees Penrith strongly favored. With a superb finals record and dominance in daytime games (5-0, average 30-point margin), Penrith’s defensive pressure and consistency make them likely to pull away as the match progresses. Newcastle, while impressive in reaching this stage, may struggle after two high-intensity games. Key value plays include Panthers to cover -29.5, To'o or McLean to score 2+ tries, and a high-risk multi correlating with a comfortable Penrith win. Recommendation: back Penrith's experience and depth.
- Panthers are strong favourites due to finals form & big-game experience
- Value bets: Panthers -29.5, To'o or McLean 2+ tries & a multi for a big Penrith win
- Knights potentially fatigued after two high-intensity finals - Penrith tipped to pull away
The Penrith Panthers and Newcastle Knights meet with a place in the NRL Grand Final on the line at Accor Stadium this afternoon.
Disclaimer: This tips piece is based on Penrith putting their foot down and running away with the game against a Knights side who could easily be gassed having won two highly-charged outings already this finals series.
The Panthers remain the benchmark of the modern NRL era. Their ability to continually peak at this stage of the season has been remarkable, and Penrith enter another Preliminary Final having won 15 of their last 16 finals matches. When the pressure rises, few teams have been able to match their defensive intensity, patience and ability to turn sustained field position into points. The only potential concern here is Nathan Cleary and just how serious that foot injury is.
Newcastle deserve enormous credit for reaching this point, but the concern is whether the Knights have anything left after two emotionally and physically draining finals. Their previous two matches have effectively carried Grand Final-level intensity and backing that up against Penrith represents another significant step up.
Our Panthers vs Knights betting card is built around Penrith eventually taking control, with two value plays before a $17 Same Game Multi longshot with Dabble.
| Bet | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers -29.5 | $6.25 | Ladbrokes |
| Brian To'o or Casey McLean to score 2+ tries | $4.50 | Picklebet |
| SGM: To'o 1+ Try, McLean 1+ Try, Panthers -20.5 & Under 50.5 Points | $17.00 | Dabble |
Panthers -29.5 @ $6.25 with Ladbrokes
Panthers -29.5 LineBack our tip with Ladbrokes$6.25 - bet here
New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply. CHANCES ARE YOU'RE ABOUT TO LOSE. Set a deposit limit.
A line approaching 30 points is enormous for a Preliminary Final, but so is the price - and $6.25 for Penrith -29.5 is our first value play.
The foundation of the bet is Penrith's dominance in daytime football this season. The Panthers are 5-0 in day games, winning those matches by an average score of 40-10. That equates to an average winning margin of exactly 30 points - enough to cover the -29.5 alternative line.
There is also a significant recent head-to-head advantage. Penrith have won nine of their last 10 against Newcastle, with the last two meetings ending in emphatic 44-12 and 48-12 victories. Those aren't simply comfortable wins; both results cleared this alternative line.
Then there is Penrith's finals record. The Panthers have won 15 of their last 16 finals, underlining just how consistently this team has delivered when the stakes are highest. Their ability to remain composed and gradually squeeze opponents has become a defining feature of the club's modern dynasty.
Newcastle have already produced two massive performances to reach the Preliminary Final. The question is whether those were effectively their two Grand Finals. Another emotionally charged contest against a fresh and battle-hardened Penrith side could eventually take its toll.
At $6.25, we're backing the Panthers to turn a competitive opening into a comfortable victory and maintain their remarkable average margin in day games.
Brian To'o or Casey McLean 2+ Tries @ $4.50 with Picklebet
Our second play gives us two chances at landing an in-form Panthers outside back to score multiple tries, with either Brian To'o or Casey McLean to cross twice at $4.50.
To'o's record against Newcastle immediately stands out. He has scored nine tries across his last nine appearances against the Knights, including a double when the teams met in Round 8 earlier this season.
His current form is just as encouraging. To'o has five tries across his last four matches and has scored at least once in each of his last four Preliminary Finals at Accor Stadium. Few players have been as reliable on the big stage, and if Penrith dominate territory as expected, To'o should again receive opportunities close to Newcastle's line.
McLean gives us an equally dangerous second option. He has scored three tries in his last three matches against Newcastle, including a double last season, while he enters this contest having crossed four times across his past three games. I'm expecting the Panthers to run a lot of traffic at Sandon Smith and Dom Young, both of whom can be exploited defensively on the Knights' right edge.
Penrith's ability to create space for their outside backs makes both players dangerous whenever the Panthers establish control. We don't need both to score twice – a double from either To'o or McLean is enough.
Panthers vs Knights Same Game Multi @ $17 with Dabble
To'o 1+ Try, McLean 1+ Try, Panthers -20.5 & Under 50.5 PointsBack our SGM with Dabble$17 - BET HERE
The dabble.com.au referral code is BETSAU. 18+. T&Cs apply.
For our longshot, we're combining the two Penrith wingers with an alternative line and match total.
The try legs follow the same logic as our $4.50 player special. To'o has five tries from his past four matches and an excellent recent scoring record against Newcastle, while McLean has four tries from his last three appearances and has also enjoyed success against the Knights.
Instead of asking either player to score twice, this time we need one try from each.
The Panthers -20.5 leg also gives us nine points more breathing room than our main alternative-line selection. Penrith have demolished Newcastle 44-12 and 48-12 in their past two meetings, winning both by more than 30 points.
Importantly, a big Penrith victory doesn't necessarily require an enormous match total. The Panthers have gone Under 50.5 total points in 11 of their last 12 matches, with their defence consistently keeping opposition scoring under control. The Panthers have won under these conditions (-20.5 line & Under 50.5 Points) five times in 2026.
That's the match script we're targeting: Penrith's defence restricts Newcastle after their gruelling finals run, the Panthers gradually pull away, and To'o and McLean capitalise on the field position created by their middle and spine.
At $17, it's certainly the high-risk option of our three plays, but all four legs fit the same underlying prediction - Penrith's big-game experience and defensive superiority eventually prove too much for a Newcastle side that may have already emptied the tank over the previous fortnight.
Verdict
Our best Panthers vs Knights value plays can be seen below.
Panthers -29.5
Line
$6.25 - 1 Unit
Australia's #1 bookmaker
Use the code "BLACKBOOK"
The Ladbrokes.com.au code is BLACKBOOK. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. THINK. IS THIS A BET YOU REALLY WANT TO PLACE? Set a deposit limit.
To'o or McLean
To Score 2+ Tries
$4.50 - 1 Unit
Same Game & Race Multis
Use affiliate code BETSAU
Exciting new betting app now live. Use code BETSAU on sign-up. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.
Dabble Same Game Multi
Panthers -20.5; To'o & McLean 1+ Try; Under 50.5 Points
$17.00 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU
Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
27 September 2026
- Caulfield- September 27 -
- Horse Racing
- Manikato Stakes -
- Horse Racing
- Dubbo - September 27 -
- Horse Racing
- Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights -
- Rugby League
- 2026 NRL Preliminary Finals -
- Rugby League
- Adelaide 36ers vs Cairns Taipans -
- Basketball
- South Africa vs Australia 2nd ODI -
- Cricket
30 September 2026
03 October 2026
- Flight Stakes -
- Horse Racing
- Turnbull Stakes -
- Horse Racing
- Epsom Handicap -
- Horse Racing
Load More
