Ascot Tips October 17
Glenroy Chaff Handicap Tips (Race 3)
Ascot Favourite - Race 3 No. 7 Jedi Dream
Jedi Dream enjoyed an underrated two-year-old campaign after making a winning debut over 1100m at Ascot on March 14, scoring comfortably at $20 before continuing to go around at generous odds despite doing very little wrong in stronger company.
The only occasion she failed to find the line was second-up in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes on April 4, where the filly covered ground throughout before understandably tiring late, while poor barrier draws subsequently left her with difficult assignments in both the Karakatta Plate and WA Sires' Produce Stakes.
Ridden cold from a wide gate in the Karakatta Plate, Jedi Dream worked home strongly for fourth-of-16 over 1200m before again catching the eye when producing the fastest final 200m in the WA Sires over 1400m, suggesting the daughter of Cosmic Force could develop into an even better galloper over longer distances this season.
Despite those encouraging staying prospects, Jedi Dream has already demonstrated plenty of ability over shorter trips and looked forward enough for her return when winning a Lark Hill trial on October 5, jumping cleanly before comfortably accounting for her rivals in a heat she could have won by further.
The drop back to 1000m presents a challenge first-up, but the Stefan Vahala-trained filly looks to possess above-average ability and finds a moderate one-metro-win contest, with Kraken Time perhaps the main danger on talent despite two disappointing performances this preparation.
C J Byfield 80th Handicap Tips (Race 5)
Ascot Value Bet - Race 5 No. 2 Saturday Sesh
It took Saturday Sesh some time to find the winner's stall after failing to break through as either a late two-year-old or throughout his three-year-old season despite several competitive performances, but the Ashley Maley-trained gelding began putting things together after scoring first-up at Bunbury last season.
He nearly completed an early preparation double when producing a tough runner-up finish in Class 1 company on August 27, and although unable to salute in Perth during his following campaign, Saturday Sesh remained competitive in decent company before returning to winning form in a BM70+ at Kalgoorlie on June 21.
The son of Sessions added another victory at Kalgoorlie on July 12 before a short break, and his September 19 return at Belmont was encouraging in a race arguably stronger than Saturday's assignment, while his subsequent failure during the Kalgoorlie carnival is worth forgiving given the circumstances.
Drawn barrier nine on that occasion, Saturday Sesh settled towards the rear and was forced to cover ground in a race dominated by the on-speed runners, with the winner leading throughout and the runner-up enjoying an economical passage from the box seat, leaving him poorly positioned to make an impact.
There should be considerably more options from barrier two third-up, with Jefferson Tsang's 3kg claim reducing Saturday Sesh's weight to an attractive 55.5kg, and given his tactical versatility and scope for further improvement with racing, he looks capable of securing a much more economical run.
Happy 90th Birthday Brian Casey Handicap Tips (Race 6)
Ascot Best Bet - Race 6 No. 4 Swift Ruler
A progressive three-year-old from the Adam Durrant stable, Swift Ruler improved considerably during his second preparation when rounding out that campaign with consecutive Saturday metropolitan victories at Belmont, before completing a hat-trick with another impressive success on his September 12 return.
The son of Universal Ruler carried 59.5kg when winning over 1200m on that occasion, conceding 5.5kg to runner-up Yamanex, and arguably should have made it four consecutive victories when stepping up to 1400m on September 26, encountering trouble at a crucial stage before launching late behind the unbeaten Roger.
He now takes on a field of largely exposed older gallopers and receives a substantial weight drop after carrying 60.5kg last start, with Swift Ruler carrying just 53.5kg on Saturday, a whopping 7kg reduction.
The rise to 1800m looks another positive for a galloper who has always shaped as though he would appreciate getting over ground, with his pedigree supporting that impression through dam Fast As The Wind, a full sister to 2019 Group 1 Metropolitan winner Come Play With Me, who also recorded two stakes victories in Western Australia over distances of 2000m and beyond.
There appears considerable improvement still to come from Swift Ruler as he rises in distance third-up, and with his recent performances suggesting he has the ability to progress beyond this grade, he looks extremely difficult to beat with even luck in running.
Happy 80th Birthday Bernie Ryan Handicap Tips (Race 10)
Ascot Next Best Bet - Race 10 No. 10 Ourgirlcanrun
There may be some market opposition to Ourgirlcanrun after she was beaten as favourite first-up last preparation, but the Mitchell Pateman-trained mare subsequently completed consecutive victories over 1200m in April and May, demonstrating a clear preference for these shorter assignments.
It is worth remembering that she had completed just one public trial before that earlier return and was resuming after a spaced-out first campaign that culminated in the WA Champion Fillies Stakes over 1600m, leaving her open to improvement with race fitness.
Three victories from four attempts over 1200m underline that view, while her latest success at Belmont on May 23 has produced excellent subsequent form, with runner-up Vatican Storm becoming the first horse to defeat Hot And High when winning the Listed Raconteur Stakes in June.
Third-placed Like Clockwork has also franked that form with several strong performances in quality company, including a first-up victory on September 26 before finishing runner-up to the smart Bassett Hound, adding further substance to Ourgirlcanrun's most recent race-day appearance.
Two trial victories have provided a stronger foundation for Saturday's return, and while barrier 12 is wide, Ourgirlcanrun has the early speed to push forward under Holly Watson and find the lead, with fellow on-speed runner Swingman generally more comfortable dictating at a slower tempo, leaving the mare well placed to make full use of her natural pace.