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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rybakina backed for the upset in Berlin quarters

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri. 20 Jun. 2025 01:12

Andrew Hendrie 20 Jun. 2025

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina predictions for Friday's WTA Berlin QF
Rybakina has won 21 of her last 26 matches on grass
Sabalenka hasn't won back-to-back matches on grass outside Wimbledon since 2022
The match is scheduled to start at 12.00am AEST on Saturday June 21

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Elena Rybakina (Photo by Getty Images)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

It's a blockbuster Berlin Open quarter-final on Friday as World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka faces former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Aryna Sabalenka Form
Elena Rybakina Form
Live Stream

I think Rybakina has a good chance for her biggest win of the season here. Sabalenka struggled for while following her heartbreaking Australian Open final defeat earlier in the year and after falling again in a slam final at Roland Garros earlier this month, the same sort of pattern is a chance of emerging. Sabalenka struggled in her first match since going down to Coco Gauff in Paris, overcoming an overnight delay and recovering from 2-4 down in the second set to edge out qualifier Rebeka Masarova.

Sabalenka declared she'd rather be vacationing in Mykonos than Berlin right now and Rybakina is a massive step up in class, especially on this surface. The 2022 Wimbledon champion hasn't dropped a set in her two matches in Berlin this week and owns four career victories over Sabalenka - including the most-recent clash at last year's WTA Finals. I'm backing Rybakina to cover a +3.5 games line on the Berlin lawns and she's a good chance at the upset too.

Head To Head

Sabalenka leads 6-4, including winning their only previous clash on grass at Wimbledon 2021. Rybakina was a 6-4 3-6 6-1 winner at the end of 2024 at the WTA Finals.

Aryna Sabalenka Form

Sabalenka brings a 41-7 record on the season into this encounter, owning the most wins out of anyone on tour, but also missing out on the two biggest prizes by the skin of her teeth.

Obviously the slams are the primary goals for top players and Sabalenka has suffered two heartbreaking defeats in the Australian Open and Roland Garros finals to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff.

Sabalenka was rightly criticised for her comments following the loss to Gauff, where she blamed the conditions and said Swiatek would have beaten the American had they met in the final.

So, despite three WTA titles in 2025, it's not been an ideal year for Sabalenka and she was far from her best in a 6-2 7-6 victory over Masarova that spanned over two days in her Berlin opener.

Elena Rybakina Form

Rybakina has compiled a 29-11 record on the season and arrived in Berlin just outside the top 10 at No. 11 in the world.

It hasn't been an easy last 12 months for Rybakina, who was engulfed in the off-court controversy surrounding her former coach.

While there's still a lot of unknown in that regard, Rybakina has done a solid job of putting tennis first and she will be hoping to recapture her best tennis on her favourite grass surface.

Rybakina won her first title of 2025 in Strasbourg just before Roland Garros, where she then had a chance to take out Swiatek after leading the four-time champion by a set-and-a-break.

The Kazakh has advanced into the Berlin quarter-finals without dropping a set, toppling Ashlyn Krueger 6-3, 7-6 and Katerina Siniakova 6-4, 7-6.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina live tennis from Berlin.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > WTA Berlin with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina

Sabalenka struggled after her AO final defeat and it wouldn't surprise me if she suffered another upset defeat following her RG final loss.

Rybakina is a massive threat on grass and has nothing to lose here - think the former Wimbledon champion is a chance in Berlin.

Rybakina +3.5

Games Line

$1.60 - 2 Units

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Rybakina Win

H2H

$2.40 - 1 Unit

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