This preview has expired.

See all our latest betting tips or suggested betting sites

Saturday 30
Sunday 31
Monday 1
Tuesday 2
Wednesday 3
Thursday 4
Friday 5
Saturday 6
Sunday 7
Monday 8
Tuesday 9

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Week 5 Tips & Predictions - Points on offer in Buffalo

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Fact Checked by Jeremy Darke

Last updated: Fri 03 Oct 2025 12:16

Ryan Tucker 03 Oct 2025

Share this article

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Expert NFL Tips for Week 5
Kick Off is at 11:20 AM AEDT at Highmark Stadium
Buffalo Bills are 4-0 and riding a 13-game home win streak.
Bills average 33.3 points/game and have the #1 pass defense.
Take Buffalo to win & cover; expect NE to go over their team total.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Week 5 Tips & Predictions

The Bills will win this Sunday Night Football matchup at home extending their win streak at Highmark Stadium to 14 in a row dating back to the start of the 2024 season.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Week 5 Tips & Predictions
Head to Head Record
All Time Record
Most Recent Matchup
Statistical Rankings
New England Patriots Form
New England Patriots Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills Form
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Frequently Asked Questions

Buffalo are 4-0 but they have really only played one good team in the Ravens in week 1 which was a 1 pt game. With that said, New England aren’t a great team but will still put pressure on defensively and have enough weapons to keep the Bills defence honest.

New England have been wildly inconsistent offensively this year with scores of 13, 33, 14 and 42. If the trend continues it should be another sub 20 effort from them but given Buffalo’s poor rush D and the pieces they have on the ground to run the ball, there is still an opportunity that they at least get themselves into scoring position a few times.

The Patriots have not scored less than 20 pts against Buffalo in their last 5 games and that trend is expected to continue in this matchup. On the other side of the park the Bills will continue their efficient ball movement and rack up another high score to cement themselves as an early season Super Bowl contender.

Take Buffalo to win and cover the line but New England to still go Over their Team Total. Josh Allen will likely cross for a TD while going Over his Passing Total.

Buffalo are averaging 33.3 pts per game this season and have the number 1 Pass Defence.
New England haven’t scored less than 20 pts in their last 5 games against Buffalo and won the most recent matchup last season 23-16.
Josh Allen scored 13 TD’s last season and has 3 already this year. He also has scored the second highest number of career TD’s against New England (5).
Josh Allen averages 229 yards per game in his career against Divisional opponents and is averaging 241 yds per game this season.

Head to Head Record

All Time Record

New England Patriots lead all-time series 79-51-1.

Most Recent Matchup

Date	Result
Jan 5, 2025	BUF 16 @ NWE 23

Statistical Rankings

Stat	NWE	BUF
Points Scored/Game	25.5 (10th)	33.3 (2nd)
Points Allowed/Game	20.3 (9th)	22.5 (17th)
Pass Yds/Game	235 (7th)	240 (6th)
Rush Yds/Game	101 (25th)	163 (1st)
Def. Pass Yds/Game	241 (27th)	125 (1st)
Def. Rush Yds/Game	77 (2nd)	164 (31st)

New England Patriots Form

The Patriots head into week 5 with a 2-2 record and a massive 42-13 victory in the bag at home against the Caroline Panthers last weekend.

Drake Maye finished with 203 yards on 14 completions from 17 attempts but still managed 2 TD’s for a 155.6 rating. Stefon Diggs was the main beneficiary with 101 yards on 6 catches while the 3 RB’s shared the work on the ground. The team needed only 307 yards of offence to score 42 pts which is wild.

Defensively they kept Carolina to 5-14 on third down and 1-3 on 4th down, both touchdowns coming through the air with Young and Dalton combining for 23-36 and 208 yards. New England are otherwise ranked 26th against the pass allowing 241 yards per game but are 2nd against the rush with an average of just 77 yards per outing to opponents.

New England Patriots Betting Trends

Team Table
Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Away	Home
NE	2-2-0	2-2-0	2-2-0	1-0-0	1-2-0

Buffalo Bills Form

Buffalo are one of two teams to head into week 5 undefeated after smacking the New Orleans Saints 31-19 last weekend. They are the 2nd best scoring team, averaging 33.3 pts per game while allowing 22.5 (17th).

The Bills rank 1st in Rush Yards and 6th in Pass Yards pointing to efficient ball movement in both prongs of the attack. This was apparent against New Orleans as they rushed 32 times for 165 yards and 2 TD’s as well as passing 22 times for 16 completions and 209 yards and 2 TD’s.

Defensively teams are opting to run against Buffalo. They rank 31st in Rush Defence, allowing 164 yards per game but are 1st in Pass Defence with an average of 125 yards per game to opponents. Based on strength of opponent though, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

Team Table
Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Away	Home
BUF	4-0-0	2-2-0	3-1-0	1-0-0	3-0-0

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Frequently Asked Questions

What time does New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills start?

Kickoff between New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills is at 11:20 AM AEDT, Monday

What channel is New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills on?

You can watch New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills on DAZN

Verdict

NE Patriots @ BUF Bills

Take Buffalo to win and cover the line but New England to still go Over their Team Total. Josh Allen will likely cross for a TD while going Over his Passing Total.

Buffalo Bills -7

Line

$1.87 - 3 Units

Use Easyform

The Ultimate Form Guide

18+ only. Gamble Responsibly. T&Cs apply

Bet at Playup

New England Over 20.5

Team Total

$1.85 - 1 Unit

Lightning fast betting

Join with code BETSAU

18+. T&Cs apply

Bet at Elitebet

Josh Allen

Anytime Touchdown

$1.70 - 1 Unit

Take it to the Neds Level

The Neds.com.au code is BLACKBOOK. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. WHAT'S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at Neds

J Allen over 225.5

Passing Yards

$1.90 - 2 Units

Download the dabble app

with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at dabble