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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers NBL26 Semi-Final Tips - Phoenix Tipped to Level the Ledger
The South East Melbourne Phoenix are projected to win their NBL25 Semi-Final match against the Adelaide 36ers, despite their previous loss. SEM is expected to improve their shooting percentage and performance. Watching out for Nathan Sobey's scoring and Bryce Cotton's influence will be vital. Expert tips suggest betting on SEM to win and cover the 4-point line, with Sobey surpassing 21.5 in points and 32.5 in PRA. SEM aims to exploit their home advantage and force a Game 3.
- SEM are favorites against Adelaide in the NBL25 Semi-Final.
- Experts predict improved shooting and tactical play from SEM.
- Betting tips: SEM to cover 4 pts, Sobey to exceed 21.5 pts & 32.5 PRA.
- Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at John Cain Arena
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers NBL25 Semi-Final Expert Tips
South East Melbourne were favoured at market close on the road in Game 1 but go into this second Semi Final matchup as favourites from the get go.
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers NBL25 Semi-Final Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- Last 5 Match Results
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Frequently Asked Questions
It is rare for the Phoenix to have two poor shooting games in a row and that is the main reason for backing them in to win against the 36ers this Saturday evening. If just 2 more of their threes had hit they would likely have won that first matchup.
What Phoenix fans should take with them is that Sobey and Clark didn’t stop trying to shoot the rock despite having cold nights. They know that averages end up - averaging out.
Adelaide have been extremely reliant on Bryce Cotton in the second half of the season, and it once again showed in Game 1. Cotton played all but 30 seconds of the game, took more than double the shots of anyone else on his team and outscored his other 4 starters combined total.
Cotton was extremely efficient in Game 1 which is not something you can count on him to deliver night in, night out.
So the narrative here is regression. SEM will shoot better from distance because they are a better shooting team and Bryce Cotton will miss a few more shots than he did in game 1. Simple mathematics, SEM win and send it to a Game 3 decider.
Take SEM to win and cover the 4 pt line as home favourites with Nathan Sobey to clear 21.5 pts and 32.5 PRA.
- SEM shot just 27.9% from 3pt range in Game 1, way down compared to their season average of 35.1%.
- Adelaide ranked 6th in Turnover % in all road games this season.
- Nathan Sobey has career averages of 19.4 points and 4.6 assists per game against Adelaide, the most against any opponent.
- Sobey has cleared this PRA line in three straight games
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2026 | ADE | ADE 104-97 | ADE +1.5 | O 190.5 |
| 31/01/2026 | ADE | SEM 97-77 | SEM +1.0 | U 193.0 |
| 18/01/2026 | ADE | SEM 108-89 | SEM +6.0 | O 185.0 |
| 22/11/2025 | SEM | ADE 94-81 | ADE +2.0 | U 186.5 |
| 16/10/2025 | ADE | ADE 88-71 | ADE -5.5 | U 187.5 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| SEM Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | ADE Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.7 | 1 | PPG | 4 | 87.6 |
| 41.8 | 5 | RPG | 1 | 40.1 |
| 44.1% | 8 | FG% | 5 | 44.6% |
| 35.1% | 3 | 3P% | 2 | 31.6% |
| 10.1 | 2 | TOV | 7 | 10.6 |
| SEM Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | ADE Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.8 | 7 | PPG | 4 | 92.2 |
| 42.4 | 9 | RPG | 7 | 41.2 |
| 47.8% | 9 | FG% | 3 | 46.6% |
| 34.5% | 9 | 3P% | 1 | 36.1% |
| 16.8 | 1 | TOV | 5 | 11.1 |
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
SE Melbourne didn’t do a lot wrong in their first semi-final but they still ended up losing 104-97 on the road in Adelaide. They protected the ball, won the rebounding and the battle of the benches.
Their three point shooting and their defensive lapses on Bryce Cotton were the deciding factors. They nailed just 12 of 43 shots from distance with Nathan Sobey and Ian Clark going a combined 4-21 from outside the arc.
Cotton was allowed to pretty much get what he wanted and he shot a tidy game. The Phoenix need to find a solution to at least slow the best scorer in the league down.
Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News
Adelaide started the first semi as the underdogs at home but they were able to turn the tables in the first half and take a 2pt lead into the major break. They forced the Phoenix into uncomfortable shots from 3pt range while Bryce Cotton ran amok in the paint.
Nick Rakocevic was clutch, grabbing 6 offensive rebounds at key times in the match to give the 36ers more chances to score the ball and hold critical momentum.
Zylan Cheatham had 3 turnovers on 5 assists but did help with 13 pts and 9 boards in the game.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Frequently Asked Questions
What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers start?
Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Saturday, March 14
What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers on?
You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Where can I livestream South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers?
If you are outside of Australia, the NBL allows you to stream live on YouTube via the official NBL channel
Verdict
Take SEM to win and cover the 4 pt line as home favourites with Nathan Sobey to clear 21.5 pts and 32.5 PRA.
SE Melbourne -4
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