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Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Semi-Final 3 Tips - Phoenix Defence Not Good Enough in Decider
The NBL25 Semi-Final 3 between the Adelaide 36ers and South East Melbourne Phoenix promises a thrilling showdown. With Adelaide shooting beyond their season average and aiming to overcome turnovers, they are poised as the home favorites to possibly clinch the series. South East Melbourne's strategy hinges on maintaining high shooting percentages as evidenced by Nathan Sobey’s stellar performance in Game 2. Ultimately, shooting efficiency and defensive prowess will determine the outcome, with predictions favoring Adelaide to both win and cover the -1.5 line.
- Adelaide 36ers have exceeded shooting expectations; aiming for victory.
- South East Melbourne relies on high shooting efficiencies to win.
- Prediction: Adelaide to win, cover -1.5 line as Home Favorite.
- Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Semi-Final 3 Expert Tips
This series has had all the momentum swings worthy of a Semi-Final and it’s not finished yet.
- Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Semi-Final 3 Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- Last 5 Match Results
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings (Regular Season)
- Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
Adelaide have shot way above their season averages in both game 1 and game 2. Had they not had 18 turnovers last game, then they could well have already booked their spot in the Grand Final.
South East Melbourne fired back in Game 2 with Nathan Sobey going nuclear for 41 pts. But there are some worrying signs. They allowed Adelaide to dominate early and even when the shots were dropping, they failed to put the nail in the coffin of the 36ers.
Once again, the prediction is that shooting percentage will dictate the outcome of this game. If South East Melbourne are able to convert like they did in Game 2, there is no defence in the league that can stop them. On the other end of the court Adelaide have been exceeding their expectation but the question is whether that is their own skill or SEM’s poor defence.
After watching both games, my take is that the Phoenix defence is just not good enough to stop Cotton from scoring and players like Cheatham and Rakocevic at the rim. SEM have shortened their rotations which has been their advantage all season long and I don’t agree that it’s working.
Take Adelaide to win and cover the short -1.5 line as the Home Favourite. Nick Rakocevic has been crucial to their success, get him for 15+ and 20+ aswell as Nathan Sobey over 32.5 PRA.
- Adelaide have shot over 50% from the field and 37.3% from distance since Rd 18, they have the 2nd best EFG% in the league over that time.
- Adelaide had 18 turnovers in Game 2 and took 25 fewer shots but still only lost by 9 pts.
- Nick Rakocevic has averaged 16.1 pts per game over his last 7 matches and has had 18+ pts in 4 of his last 6.
- Nathan Sobey has had 32+ PRA in 5 straight games.
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | SEM | SEM 101-92 | SEM -6.0 | O 192.5 |
| 10/03/2026 | ADE | ADE 104-97 | ADE +1.5 | O 190.5 |
| 31/01/2026 | ADE | SEM 97-77 | SEM +1.0 | U 193.0 |
| 18/01/2026 | ADE | SEM 108-89 | SEM +6.0 | O 185.0 |
| 22/11/2025 | SEM | ADE 94-81 | ADE +2.0 | U 186.5 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings (Regular Season)
| ADE Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.2 | 4 | PPG | 7 | 92.8 |
| 41.2 | 7 | RPG | 9 | 42.4 |
| 46.6% | 3 | FG% | 9 | 47.8% |
| 36.1% | 1 | 3P% | 9 | 34.5% |
| 11.1 | 5 | TOV | 1 | 16.8 |
| ADE Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.6 | 4 | PPG | 1 | 100.7 |
| 40.1 | 1 | RPG | 5 | 41.8 |
| 44.6% | 5 | FG% | 8 | 44.1% |
| 31.6% | 2 | 3P% | 3 | 35.1% |
| 10.6 | 7 | TOV | 2 | 10.1 |
Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News
Adelaide did what they could in game 2 but couldn’t match the perimeter shooting of the Phoenix. Bryce Cotton had 29 pts, 6 rebounds and 5 assists in 38 minutes of play while DJ Vasiljevic and Nick Rakocevic combined for 32 pts off the bench, one of their highest combined totals of the season.
The 36ers shot 41.7% from distance themselves, way above their season average of 36.2% while also converting their 2pt chances at a much higher rate.
Had it not been for the 18 turnovers then Adelaide would have been much closer in the closing stages of this match.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne levelled up the series with an emphatic 101-92 win over Adelaide, erasing a 16 pt second quarter deficit in the process.
Nathan Sobey carried the team out of the hole with a season high 41 pts on 14-27 shooting which included a monstrous 8-16 from 3pt range.
The SEM bench contributed with 26 pts, Malique Lewis coming up with 4 very important offensive rebounds at key moments of the match.
Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Tuesday, March 17
What channel is Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Where can I livestream Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix?
If you are outside of Australia, the NBL allows you to stream live on YouTube via the official NBL channel
Verdict
Take Adelaide to win and cover the short -1.5 line as the Home Favourite. Nick Rakocevic has been crucial to their success, get him for 15+ and 20+ aswell as Nathan Sobey over 32.5 PRA.
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