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Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips - Perth’s homecourt advantage the difference in top 4 shootout
The upcoming match between Perth Wildcats and South East Melbourne Phoenix is crucial for both teams fighting for a top-four spot in the NBL finals. Perth, with a strong home record, is expected to win by a narrow margin, thanks to their second-best scoring capability in the league and home court influence. SE Melbourne struggles on the road but boasts a solid defensive ranking. Key player Nathan Sobey is in great form, predicted to score over 20 points. Overall, the game looks set to be a thrilling contest decided by critical plays.
- Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Friday’s Round 19 NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 9:30 PM AEDT at RAC Arena
- Perth Wildcats hold home advantage; best home record vs SE Melbourne's poor road record in top 6.
- Perth ranks as the second-best scoring team, expecting a close win over Phoenix.
- Nathan Sobey is in excellent scoring form, predicted to achieve over 20 points despite Wildcats' defense.
Ryan's top picks for Friday's NBL games.
Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips
Perth will win this game at home but it is expected to be close with the line being set at two scores.
- Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips
- Head to Head
- 2024/25 Match Results
- 2023/24 Season Series
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Perth Wildcats Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
Perth and South East Melbourne are fighting it out for a top four spot in the finals and this game could turn out to be the decider with the winner putting a full game of space between themselves and the loser.
The Wildcats home court advantage is going to be influential in my opinion. They have won both matchups against the Phoenix at RAC this season and are tied for the second best home record in the NBL. SE Melbourne (6-7) on the other hand join Adelaide (4-8) as the only teams in the top 6 with a losing record on the road. The crowd at RAC is always raucous which makes it intimidating and difficult to hear your teammates and in what is expected to be a close game, it could come down to one or two missed plays.
Perth are the 2nd best scoring team in the NBL and against top 4 scoring opponents the Phoenix have allowed an average of 94.3 points per game which would put them at 7th in the defensive rankings on the season.
My top picks are Perth to cover the line while going over their Team Total. Nathan Sobey has been in fine point scoring form lately, take him over 20 pts against a poor Wildcats defence.
- Perth have the 2nd best home record of any team this season while SE Melbourne have the second worst road record in the top 6.
- The Wildcats have been the best scoring team over the past 10 games.
- South East Melbourne allow 94.3 pts per game to opponents on the road this season.
- Nathan Sobey has scored 26+ points in 4 of his last 5 games.
Head to Head
2024/25 Match Results
Nov 15th 24: Perth 97-84 South East Melbourne
Nov 3rd 24: South East Melbourne 100-76 Perth
Sep 20th 24: Perth 106-98 South East Melbourne
2023/24 Season Series
South East Melbourne won 2-1
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| PER Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.5 | 2 | PPG | 3 | 90.5 |
| 41.8 | 4 | RPG | 6 | 41.3 |
| 46.0% | 6 | FG% | 3 | 45.0% |
| 37.0% | 2 | 3P% | 6 | 35.7% |
| 11.2 | 5 | TOV | 3 | 12.3 |
| PER Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96.6 | 9 | PPG | 3 | 95.8 |
| 40.3 | 4 | RPG | 5 | 41.5 |
| 47.8% | 9 | FG% | 4 | 46.9% |
| 36.0% | 8 | 3P% | 7 | 34.3% |
| 12.8 | 2 | TOV | 3 | 10.7 |
Perth Wildcats Form & Team News
The Wildcats were one of two top teams to be upset by the Cairns Taipans in recent games, going down 125-116 in double overtime on Saturday at RAC.
Perth allowed Cairns to get 50 points in the paint, shoot 40% from distance all without capitalising on the 17 turnovers gifted to them throughout the game. Momentum swung multiple times throughout the match but the Wildcats failed to get enough of a scoring run to put a lead on the Taipans who were always ready with the next wave of scoring.
Perth’s defence has been criticised at times this season and another 125 points allowed, even given double overtime, is just too poor against the team coming last on the ladder. If the Wildcats are hopeful of making a deep playoff run they will need to make sure they are able to lockdown defensively against any team in the league.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne belted the defending champions Tasmania JackJumpers last weekend 116-80 at the State Basketball centre. The win put them up to 4th in the standings with a superior points differential thanks to their elite defence that has been instilled in the team since the arrival of Josh King.
It is all but certain now that the Phoenix will feature in their first finals series since their play-in qualifier loss to the Perth Wildcats in the 22-23 season, but where exactly they will finish in the standings is yet to be determined. If results go their way, there is a slim chance they can finish first but more likely is the 3rd-5th range which could see them match up with the Wildcats or cross-town rivals Melbourne United in the play-in.
The Phoenix are ranked 3rd in defence this season allowing opponents just 90.5 pts per game. They also cause the 3rd highest number of turnovers with a number of players getting their hands on the ball.
Offensively they have climbed to the 3rd spot in scoring but are ranked 7th in 3pt shooting signaling they do not want to end up in a shootout with an opponent.
Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 9:30 PM AEDT, Friday 31st January
What channel is Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
My top picks are Perth to cover the line while going over their Team Total. Nathan Sobey has been in fine point scoring form lately, take him over 20 pts against a poor Wildcats defence.
Perth -4.5
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Perth over 103.5
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