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Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi Osaka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Osaka to claim first top 10 scalp of 2025

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 24 Mar 2025 00:47

Andrew Hendrie 24 Mar 2025

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Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi Osaka predictions for Monday's WTA Miami R16
Paolini hasn't made a quarter-final so far in 2025
Paolini has lost her last five completed matches vs top 30 players
Osaka has only lost one completed match so far in 2025
The match is scheduled to start around 2.00am AEDT on Tuesday March 25

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Naomi Osaka (Photo by Getty Images)

Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi Osaka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Naomi Osaka will be looking to reach her first WTA 1000 quarter-final in over a year when she squares off against seventh seed Jasmine Paolini in the Miami Open R16 on Monday.

Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi Osaka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Jasmine Paolini Form
Naomi Osaka Form
Live Stream

A runner-up in Miami in 2022, Osaka has been building nicely so far this tournament and appears ready to land a first top 10 victory of the season.

I'm not convinced with Paolini's form at the moment - the Italian has lost her last five completed matches vs top 30 players, and right now, that's Osaka's level. The Italian is under immense pressure to defend Roland Garros and Wimbledon final points after this hardcourt swing and I just think she's going to find it tough going in the coming months.

Osaka has been in great form all season and if not for injuries, the former World No. 1 could have registered much stronger results. This is a fantastic opportunity for Osaka to take the next step in her comeback and build some momentum going deep into Miami - I'm backing her to prevail and cover a -3.5 games line in the process.

Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Jasmine Paolini Form

Paolini comes into this clash with a 10-5 record on the season - but she hasn't really got going.

Indeed, the Italian hasn't been able to reach a quarter-final in her four tournaments before arriving in Miami, going down in the third round of the Australian Open to Elina Svitolina and bowing out against Sofia Kenin and Jelena Ostapenko in the Middle East swing last month.

Paolini was no match for Liudmila Samsonova in the R16 of Indian Wells last week and hasn't been made to work much so far in Miami, defeating Rebecca Sramkova in her opening before Ons Jabeur retired in their third round clash.

The 29-year-old has never won consecutive completed matches in Miami.

Naomi Osaka Form

Osaka arrives at this showdown with a solid 9-3 record for the season, losing only one completed match.

The Japanese star was on fire to launch the season in Auckland, but she was struck down by an abdominal injury while leading Clara Tauson by a set in the final.

After beating Karolina Muchova at the Australian Open, Osaka was forced to retire again with the same injury in the third round against Belinda Bencic.

Osaka returned to action in Indian Wells, where she declared she played the worst match of her career in a straight sets defeat to Camila Osario.

However, the four-time major champion is back to some good tennis in Miami, overcoming Yuliia Starodubtseva in three sets in her opening match and toppling Liudmila Samsonova in straights in the second round before a three-hour marathon with wildcard Hailey Baptiste, eventually prevailing 7-6 (6), 3-6, 6-4 after recovering from a break down in the decider.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi Osaka live tennis from Miami.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > WTA Miami with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Jasmine Paolini v Naomi Osaka

This is a great chance for Osaka to secure her first top 10 victory of the season and reach a 1000-level quarter-final - I'm backing the 2022 Miami runner-up to claim victory and cover a -3.5 games line.

Osaka Win

H2H

$1.55 - 3 Units

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Bet at Playup

Osaka -3.5

Games Handicap

$2.00 - 1 Unit

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